Weekend Thread (6/24-26) | Actuals: Elvis 31.2, TGM 29.6, JWD 26.7, Black Phone 23.6, Lightyear 18.1

[Krissykins]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I will admit that unlike all the other movies this summer, even though I normally do well calling animated, I have ZERO idea how this movie will do.  None.  

 

Will it hit b/c of the supers connections?  Maybe

Will it hit b/c of pets? Maybe

Will it hit b/c of the comedic voice connection?  Maybe

Will it totally miss and be see as straight to digital?  Maybe

 

If you put a gun to my head and said pick a number, I'd say "will there be a deal on tickets?"  And when I still got no answer, I'd sigh and say $37M OW...but it could be anywhere from $10-$100M...(okay, maybe not $100M - I might bring that down to $80M, just to say I'm better than Deadline)...

Interestingly I noticed the other day WB UK released a batch of new character posters and only two of them referenced DC. 
 

I’m going to guess an OW of $16m I think. 

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if Super Pets opened in the teens though. 

I'd be surprised if Super Pets opened that low. If Space Jam 2 could do over $31m with a day and date HBO Max, I think Super Pets can match or exceed that number. Even Tom & Jerry which had day and date HBO Max and half of cinemas closed still did $14m. 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Krissykins said:

Interestingly I noticed the other day WB UK released a batch of new character posters and only two of them referenced DC. 
 

I’m going to guess an OW of $16m I think. 

 

I think that's the Over/Under of the Paws of Fury open...

[JohnnyGossamer]

Unfortunately, not quite the breakout weekend we'd hoped for but Elvis going over 30M OW DOM is a win for sure. Black Phone doing between 20M and 25M OW DOM is a win as well. I imagine both will have pretty good legs. I could see both getting a 3+ multi. Another nice hold for TGM keeping at just over 30M. TGM will be close to flat next weekend with the 4th of July holiday. JWD with a kind off steep but not horrible drop and still very much pacing for 370M+ DOM. We won't talk about LY. Just pretty awful there. 

 

I think Minions will do better than people expect next weekend as, unlike LY, it's geared directly at kids... With that, I think that's an underserved audience for sure this summer. Gru orgin story isn't a horrible hook and the early buzz seems decent enough. It's holiday weekend too. Otherwise, holds should be good/great across the board. Then, the following weekend, we're essentially guaranteed at 150M+ OW DOM with Thor. If TLT can open to 160M, it'll just need a 2.5 multi with summer days and little competition to clear 400M DOM. Seems very doable.

Edited June 26, 2022 by JohnnyGossamer

[Jonwo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think that's the Over/Under of the Paws of Fury open...

Teen Titans Go! to the Movies isn't the best comparison for Super Pets as that was an ultra cheap film that just got a theatrical release and still made money. Other WAG films like Storks and Smallfoot are better comparisons.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Jonwo said:

Teen Titans Go! to the Movies isn't the best comparison for Super Pets as that was an ultra cheap film that just got a theatrical release and still made money. Other WAG films like Storks and Smallfoot are better comparisons.

 

Oh, the $16M is my Over/Under for Paws of Fury open (since it got mentioned - midteens seems right for that movie).

 

I do agree the Pets should do better than the Titans - see my $37M WAG OW number...

[TwoMisfits]

5 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Unfortunately, not quite the breakout weekend we'd hoped for but Elvis going over 30M OW DOM is a win for sure. Black Phone doing between 20M and 25M OW DOM is a win as well. I imagine both will have pretty good legs. I could see both getting a 3+ multi. Another nice hold for TGM keeping at just over 30M. TGM will be close to flat next weekend with the 4th of July holiday. JWD with a kind off steep but not horrible drop and still very much pacing for 370M+ DOM. We won't talk about LY. Just pretty awful there. 

 

I think Minions will do better than people expect next weekend as, unlike LY, it's geared directly at kids... With that, I think that's underserved audience for sure this summer. It's holiday weekend too. Otherwise, holds should be good/great across the board. Then, the following weekend, we're essentially guaranteed at 150M+ OW DOM with Thor. If TLT can open to 160M, it'll just need a 2.5 multi with summer days and little competition to clear 400M DOM. Seems very doable.

 

I've been telling Shawn he was too high, and he came down to $145M as his floor...I think he might want to come down another $15M, since $130-$150M just seems like what Thor is gonna open to in my gut.  I don't think there's much more downside, but I also don't think there's a ton more upside, either...

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

I've been telling Shawn he was too high, and he came down to $145M as his floor...I think he might want to come down another $15M, since $130-$150M just seems like what Thor is gonna open to in my gut.  I don't think there's much more downside, but I also don't think there's a ton more upside, either...

Pre-sales tracking does not indicate anything below 150m, so I don't know where you're getting this other than "My gut feelings"

[Cooper Legion]

130 

 

200 is more likely (not to say that that is very likely either)

Edited June 26, 2022 by Legion and Thunder

[Rebeccas]

6 hours ago, TinaDuraes said:

Ok then, King Richard bombed at the box office and Will Smith still won. None of the Best Actors contenders will make much money unless they really nominate Cruise or people are hyped for Brendan Fraser comeback and the new Aronofsky performs like Black Swan.

King Richard came out when there was still some covid excuses, also the film is in the 70s on MC and a lot less polarizing. If it bombed now and in this year it would’ve been in trouble l. 

I think Fraser is a contender but we still have Leo in Flower Moon, Jackman in The Son, Colman Domingo in Rustin, Diego Calva in Babylon, Etc. 

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, Cheddar Please said:

Pre-sales tracking does not indicate anything below 150m, so I don't know where you're getting this other than "My gut feelings"

 

My gut has nailed so much this summer, that it's good to keep listening to it.  Presales aren't too wildly on point til the last 2 days anyway.

 

Sometimes, you just do better looking at who in the market you think will pay for a movie and when...

[Krissykins]

15 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

I'd be surprised if Super Pets opened that low. If Space Jam 2 could do over $31m with a day and date HBO Max, I think Super Pets can match or exceed that number. Even Tom & Jerry which had day and date HBO Max and half of cinemas closed still did $14m. 

 

 

Those both had live action elements and very little if any direct competition though. 
 

I’m probably wrong, but I think it’s going to join Lightyear as just another animated flop this summer. 

[Jonwo]

7 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Oh, the $16M is my Over/Under for Paws of Fury open (since it got mentioned - midteens seems right for that movie).

 

I do agree the Pets should do better than the Titans - see my $37M WAG OW number...

$37m OW would be very good for Pets and better than any WAG movie that isn't The Lego Movie or The Lego Batman Movie. That would be enough to leg it to $130-145m domestically and secure a sequel.

 

WB must be happy with how Pets looks visually as Animal Logic are doing the animation for Toto although that'll be very different tonally as it'll be a musical IIRC. 

[SchumacherFTW]

My mum's reaction to Thor's ass in the trailer before we saw Top Gun yesterday makes me sure it's going in a similar range to Doctor Strange 2 😜

[JohnnyGossamer]

2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I've been telling Shawn he was too high, and he came down to $145M as his floor...I think he might want to come down another $15M, since $130-$150M just seems like what Thor is gonna open to in my gut.  I don't think there's much more downside, but I also don't think there's a ton more upside, either...

Could be... But, the trackers in the tracking thread, seem to see 25M to 30M Thursday number. I think it's getting closer to 30M as their expectation for that opening preview with the sales not stagnating. I believe I've read where Thor 4's still selling somewhat steady while Strange 2's presales stagnated a bit after an enormous initial rush. I think the immediate social media backlash to Strange being more of a horror flick and lacking in cameos kept it from what otherwise would've been a 200M+ OW DOM. With that, I still think 150M+ is happening OW DOM. But, yeah, the ceiling might not be all that much higher than that 150M+.

 

Early reactions do seem a bit better than the ones Strange 2 had but, of course, hard to ever put a ton of stock in early reactions. I think overall reviews will be similar to something like Guardians 2. While it may be too weird, too Waititi for some and become divisive like Strange did... It'll certainly be a more colorful movie and a comedy than Strange which I think makes it an easier sell and generally bodes well for legs especially in the middle of the summer with peak summer days. Just very little direct competition for through July after it opens and even in August. I guess Bullet Train and Nope? Not exactly though. 

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Those both had live action elements and very little if any direct competition though. 
 

I’m probably wrong, but I think it’s going to join Lightyear as just another animated flop this summer. 

I'm more bullish because the market is very empty from August onwards and no direct kids competition until Lyle, Lyle Crocodile in October.

 

Also, it's a much easier sell compared to Lightyear. Never underestimate the appeal of cute animals in movies.

[JohnnyGossamer]

10 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

My gut has nailed so much this summer, that it's good to keep listening to it.  Presales aren't too wildly on point til the last 2 days anyway.

 

Sometimes, you just do better looking at who in the market you think will pay for a movie and when...

You have had a nice streak. But, to be fair, JWD had the worst reception of any Jurassic flick every and came up just short of 150M OW DOM. Reception being abysmal from critics absolutely deflated the OW DOM. And, I believe you had JWD over 30M this weekend and Elvis under 30M this weekend? Appears now that JWD will be closer to 26M and Elvis will be just over 30M. Close though. I don't recall where you had BP but I thought it was under 20M and it's going over that.

[TwoMisfits]

1 minute ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

You have had a nice streak. But, to be fair, JWD had the worst reception of any Jurassic flick every and came up just short of 150M OW DOM. Reception being abysmal from critics absolutely deflated the OW DOM. And, I believe you had JWD over 30M this weekend and Elvis under 30M this weekend? Appears now that JWD will be closer to 26M and Elvis will be just over 30M. Close though. I don't recall where you had BP but I thought it was under 20M and it's going over that.

 

I didn't put a number on the 5:)...just an order...of course, the order pretty much set Elvis and Black Phone opens (since even I didn't expect a 0% TGM drop when it won the weekend:)...and the opening movies are where I expected them - Lightyear and the dinos just aren't quite where I expected them:)...

 

I tend to only put numbers on OW:)...so under $60M Minions and $130-$150M Thor have been my last 2 calls from a week or 2 ago...

 

I guess now I put $37M on Superpets, but that one can be ignored:)...

[filmnerdjamie]

Where are we thinking for Nope?

[TwoMisfits]

Time to amusement park it up...guess I'll be back tomorrow or Tuesday to see the final order:)...