Weekend Thread (9/22-24) | Weekend Estimates - DWD 19.35, Woman King 11, Avatar 10.5, Barbarian 4.8, See How They Run & Pearl 1.9

[IronJimbo]

Also I'm going to point out how uninteresting these twitter takes are on Avatar are, we've been explaining everything in the Avatar thread for years. It's kind of annoying reading things I've seen 100 of times being put on twitter as if it's a new and original thought

[Borobudur]

8 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

It don't feel that way at this point. If $200M opening happen, a biggest 2nd weekend would also come.

Yes, I just don't feel 200m hype for A2. If DS2 can't achieve that, A2 would not be able to. More like a 150m opener to me , and that is with 3D push. 

[IronJimbo]

10 hours ago, Deep Wang said:

 

So this seems like a weird thing to say because Avatar did what it did in 2009 primarily as a non-4K showings, not to mention the DVD sales that were massive and certainly not 4K. 

It's not a weird thing to say Deep Wang. The weird part is how it did so damn well in 2D when it was a movie made for 3D and is best experienced in 3D.

 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

12 minutes ago, Gavin Feng said:

 

It don't feel that way at this point. If $200M opening happen, a biggest 2nd weekend would also come.

I am expecting $15-16 ATP in first weekend for Avatar 2. For 2nd biggest opening, it need 17M or so. 

 

If Jurassic World (~18.5M) can have more than those admits, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. $200M will need only ~13M admits.

[JustLurking]

11 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Yes, I just don't feel 200m hype for A2. If DS2 can't achieve that, A2 would not be able to. More like a 150m opener to me , and that is with 3D push. 

Doctor Strange only missed 200M because critics and audiences alike bashed it though, it was going to get there otherwise.

 

Charlie makes a good point about admissions if that number is right, but damn, if it is right I might be starting to feel inclined to join jimbo's club lol.

[Eric the Ape]

7 hours ago, babz06 said:

It’s very strange that there aren’t more films coming out this Christmas. I guess studios were scared of avatar and just gave up.

Kind of right. The bigger issue is less Avatar and more Avatar swallowing up all the PLFs, so any other big movie would get the scraps. IMAX and Dolby is more important than ever and it's tricky for another movie to get into that headway when there's another movie that's going to dominate in those areas. Matrix Resurrections had a million things going against it, but coming out days after Spider-Man meant it got the short end of the stick for the premium screens, only getting like one or two a day while Spider-Man gobbled up everything else. You can argue Bumblebee, which was still a great success, had that issue too because of Aquaman.

 

Moving Shazam out of Christmas was the right call, since it would probably suffer big time from the lack of IMAX and Dolby and 4DX. Everything else out this season are movies that people don't search for premium screens. The only ones that will maybe get a Dolby or 4DX in the early morning are Puss in Boots and I Wanna Dance With Somebody, and those movies have an audience that usually doesn't go for the premium screens.

[Borobudur]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Doctor Strange only missed 200M because critics and audiences alike bashed it though, it was going to get there otherwise.

 

Charlie makes a good point about admissions if that number is right, but damn, if it is right I might be starting to feel inclined to join jimbo's club lol.

Unlike NWH and DS2 where you can arrange every screen from big to small for 2D, the same luxury is not applicable to Avatar 2 since everyone will go ga-ga on IMAX/PLF/3D, perhaps the level of concentration that we never seen. I would say $1bn final total is more likely than 200m opening.  

[Eric the Ape]

11 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

It's not a weird thing to say Deep Wang. The weird part is how it did so damn well in 2D when it was a movie made for 3D and is best experienced in 3D.

 

 

Because it's a good movie on its own. A good movie doesn't need 3D or IMAX or Dolby or whatever to be enjoyable. If it does need those bells and whistles, then the movie doesn't hold up as its own individual experience and won't be well-remembered or liked. I first saw Avatar in 2D and I still loved the movie because it's a really fun, exciting, and engaging action-adventure film. It is in fact possible to like Avatar without those 3D bells and whistles. Frankly, I would be concerned if that wasn't the case.

[interiorgatordecorator]

46 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

 Possibly 2nd biggest opening ever.

 

why the heck not?

[interiorgatordecorator]

17 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

If Jurassic World (~18.5M) can have more than those admits, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. $200M will need only ~13M admits.

 

how did JW manage to get the highest ow all time? really did not feel much pre-release hype, almost felt like the movie snuck up on me,  and no one ever implied the movie was going to be amazing

[charlie Jatinder]

4 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Unlike NWH and DS2 where you can arrange every screen from big to small for 2D, the same luxury is not applicable to Avatar 2 since everyone will go ga-ga on IMAX/PLF/3D, perhaps the level of concentration that we never seen. I would say $1bn final total is more likely than 200m opening.  

Avatar has around 400+ IMAX screens and other PLFs at its disposal which will be running riots.

 

There are ~15000 3D screens. There won't be any shortage of showcasing for Avatar.

[JustLurking]

9 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Unlike NWH and DS2 where you can arrange every screen from big to small for 2D, the same luxury is not applicable to Avatar 2 since everyone will go ga-ga on IMAX/PLF/3D, perhaps the level of concentration that we never seen. I would say $1bn final total is more likely than 200m opening.  

There will still be a good amount of normal shows selling for A2 and there's plenty of premium/3d screens. Sure, the share of IMAX/PLF/3D will likely be the highest we've ever seen, but it's not going to be as overwhelming as you think because that is just not how things work, not everyone is going to see it in 3D no matter how much people rave about it because they simply do not like the format, and not everyone has access to theaters with premium formats (or cares to drive more to get there). Even moreso considering it will basically be a desert in terms of competition for A2, I do not think there will be a problem meeting demand.

 

5 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

Because it's a good movie on its own. A good movie doesn't need 3D or IMAX or Dolby or whatever to be enjoyable. If it does need those bells and whistles, then the movie doesn't hold up as its own individual experience and won't be well-remembered or liked. I first saw Avatar in 2D and I still loved the movie because it's a really fun, exciting, and engaging action-adventure film. It is in fact possible to like Avatar without those 3D bells and whistles. Frankly, I would be concerned if that wasn't the case.

And, yeah, this. It's not like the film didnt sell a fuckton of blu-rays and there's no 3D, nor even a big screen, on it. 3D helped but the truth is that the film is just a gread crowdpleaser with spectacular visuals even on 2D. The idea that a film could get such glowing WOM on 3D and be considered mediocre or not worth it in 2D is just weird.

Edited September 26, 2022 by JustLurking

[interiorgatordecorator]

13 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Unlike NWH and DS2 where you can arrange every screen from big to small for 2D, the same luxury is not applicable to Avatar 2 since everyone will go ga-ga on IMAX/PLF/3D, perhaps the level of concentration that we never seen. I would say $1bn final total is more likely than 200m opening.  

 

any idea of what the maximum gross of all of the premium screens in america (meaning no basic 3d) are able to collect in one weekend is?

think someone once said that 3d would tap out at around a 200 mllion weekend

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[grim22]

 

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am expecting $15-16 ATP in first weekend for Avatar 2. For 2nd biggest opening, it need 17M or so. 

 

If Jurassic World (~18.5M) can have more than those admits, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. $200M will need only ~13M admits.

10M admits will be lucky to begin with 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am expecting $15-16 ATP in first weekend for Avatar 2. For 2nd biggest opening, it need 17M or so. 

 

If Jurassic World (~18.5M) can have more than those admits, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. $200M will need only ~13M admits.

Endgame at that ATP would open to over $500 million 😨

 

5 hours ago, Legion By Night said:

10M admits will be lucky to begin with 

 

 

My expectation is 50-75% more OW admits than A1 had in 09’ 

Edited September 26, 2022 by Babylon XXR

[grim22]

Since we are discussing Cameron movies, 

Nightmare fuel alert

 

 

[Grebacio]

[Brainbug]

12 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am expecting $15-16 ATP in first weekend for Avatar 2. For 2nd biggest opening, it need 17M or so. 

 

If Jurassic World (~18.5M) can have more than those admits, I don't see why Avatar 2 can't. $200M will need only ~13M admits.

 

Jurassic World was a true phenomenon though, a masterpiece of a movie that appealed to all ages. Avatar 2 will find it hard to top JW's greatness.

[Eric the Ape]