Weekend Thread (9/22-24) | Weekend Estimates - DWD 19.35, Woman King 11, Avatar 10.5, Barbarian 4.8, See How They Run & Pearl 1.9

[Eric the Ape]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I liked the first half but didn't think it stuck the landing quite as well.

The whole structure of the movie didn’t do anything for me. Has the issue anthology films usually have where some stories are dull and go on too long, or are engaging but don’t go on long enough. Then the final third goes into a random story detour and it’s like…why did I watch this? Oh well.

[Valonqar]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Can see a world where DWD is 5th next weekend:

 

Smile: 15M

Bros: 13M
TWK: 7.8M (-30%)

Avatar: 7.2M (-28%)

DWD: 7M (-64%)

 

Yep, DWD is gonna tumble hard. HS fans already saw it and it isn't something they'll want to see twice. Not much growth beyond that.

 

WK will continue to have good Sat jumps and good Sun holds thanks to church-goers. It's funny that Deadline reported about this audience last week yet forgot about them this time and under-predicted the second weekend based on Friday. Also likely good Tue jump (older crowd) but ho-hum Mon,Wed,Thu, Fri like last week. 

 

Avatar WOM seems strong in particular for A2 footage so fingers crossed it ends up in Top 4. 

 

 

[CoolioD1]

the last 20 minutes of 3k years of longing had more fade to blacks than return of the king. can't tell you how many times i was halfway out my seat.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Obligatory weekly update of live action non-IP post Covid Top 10:

 

Nope- 123.1m (170.7m WW)

Free Guy- 121.6m (331.5m WW)

The Lost City- 105.3m (190.8m WW)

Everything Everywhere- 69.9m (100.8m WW)

Dog- 61.7m (84.9m WW)

Tenet- 58.5m (365.2m WW)

The Woman King- 36.2m (37.5m WW)

The Northman- 34.2m (69.1m WW)

Beast- 31.4m (57.3m)

Barbarian- 28.4m (29.9m WW)

----

Don't Worry Darling- 19.2m (30m WW)

[Valonqar]

EEAAO's crawl to 70M is funny. 

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, Maggie said:

Avatar is a general audience movie and they don't rush out to see it like the fan driven movies like Marvel and the rest

 

It's a sequel to a sci-fi blockbuster.

 

It's gonna be fron't loaded.

[grey ghost]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

I would say the franchise Avatar is closer to is Jurassic World 

 

There's not such a visible big buzz about them, it doesn't have a huge dedicated fanbase online, doesn't have much rush to see it too quick. 

 

And still, GP loves the concept and always just show up on theaters despite bad reviews and everything. I think Avatar will be exactly like this, but on a higher scale.

 Jurassic World sequels have better legs than the average MCU movie but not that much better.

 

The only reason the LotR sequels had 5x legs is because they opened on a Wednesday.

 

 

[babz06]

4 hours ago, SLAM! said:

That, and its second and third weekend will also be legendary. The thing about this Holiday season is that there’s virtually no competition against Avatar 2. Puss in Boots for the kids, and then the Whitney Houston biopic, and Strange World is likely keeping its theater space for the Holidays, but besides that… What exactly are people supposed to see? Avatar is the clear choice for moviegoers. It’s almost not fair how well Avatar’s going to perform, just by virtue of being *the choice*.

It’s very strange that there aren’t more films coming out this Christmas. I guess studios were scared of avatar and just gave up.

[Cmasterclay]

Justin Long should get an Oscar nomination for Barbarian. Not kidding.

[Maggie]

TG2 was a sequel too and it had like 6x legs. Imagine Avatar with Christmas legs. oh, the possibilities ...

[Maggie]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Justin Long should get an Oscar nomination for Barbarian. Not kidding.

I ahve not seen the movie, but it drives me crazy how only drama movies get actors nominated. Still haven't recovered from Toni Collette' s Hereditary snub

[GOGODanca]

Chances that avatar beats DWD next weekend domestically?

[Eric the Ape]

4 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Justin Long should get an Oscar nomination for Barbarian. Not kidding.

What up, f***ot?

[AJG]

16 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

What up, f***ot?

[ThomasNicole]

34 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 Jurassic World sequels have better legs than the average MCU movie but not that much better.

 

The only reason the LotR sequels had 5x legs is because they opened on a Wednesday.

 

 

JW didn't have great WOM tho beyond the first one, and none of this change my point, all the 3 movies was expected by many to gross way lower than they did. 

 

And they all opened in July so their legs specifically it's not comparable at all with Avatar

Edited September 25, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Eric the Ape]

1 minute ago, AJG said:

It's a line from the movie. You'll get it when you see it

[grim22]

Good point about Avatar popularity. It's broadly popular as a spectacle but not as a discussion piece. It's something people will show up for to experience it but they aren't going to start developing theories on how unobtainium works exactly

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CJohn]

I can't wait to see Barbarian on Disney+ when it gets dumped on it here.

 

Edited September 25, 2022 by CJohn

[grey ghost]

24 minutes ago, Maggie said:

TG2 was a sequel too and it had like 6x legs. Imagine Avatar with Christmas legs. oh, the possibilities ...

 

Pretty sure 6x legs for a sequel to a blockbuster is an anomoly.

 

December release or not.

[AJG]

4 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I can't wait to see Barbarian on Disney+ when it gets dumped on it here.

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Unless somethings changed it should be going to Amazon in Europe. It’s a New Regency film.