Weekend Thread (9/22-24) | Weekend Estimates - DWD 19.35, Woman King 11, Avatar 10.5, Barbarian 4.8, See How They Run & Pearl 1.9

[stuart360]

57 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

So let me see if i get it 

 

Despite being no culture impact, Avatar already grossed 58M on China re-release last year, and now it's probably gonna gross another 60M with the remastered version? 

 

So around 120M on box office this decade with re-releases, seems excellent for an 2009 movie that nobody cares about.

Just ignore the 'no cultural impact' nonsesne. The A2 gross will prove how much impact it  had with movie fans.

 

Fact is AVATAR is just one film, one film from 13 years ago, of course poeple arent constantly talking about it. It doesnt have decades of lore, comics, multiple movies and tv shows, anime, videogames, novels, etc, like the likes of Star Wars, Marvel, and DC have etc.

 

Its such a stupid argument.

 

Stuff like this is all you need to see to see what impact its had, and this is a Marvel audience -

 

 

[stuart360]

44 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I don't think anyone on the board is expecting less than $100M OW...expecting it under $522M total DOM and yet over $100M OW DOM seem like two ideas that have a lot of room to co-exist...

Unless the film REALLY sucks, it will be passed $522mil by New year imo

[Eric the Ape]

20 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

it’s true though that no one can remember the characters. The appeal of Avatar is the visuals and 3D

Okay

[stuart360]

37 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

With the non-existent competition and the holidays, 5x multiplier from a 100M OW that isn't exactly huge would require a just okay WOM imo, but yes it's possible

 

I think 5x is happening, but if it opens way bigger than 100M, like 150-160M

Funnily enough thats how i see it going, and said the same on here years ago when i used to post on here.

I see around a $150mil opening, but really good legs, like at least 5x legs.

 

There willl be a lot of people i'm sure predicting 200+mil openng weekend, but i feel this film is going to perform more like a orig film than a sequel. Lower opening but stronger legs.

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

Having people going to a 2D showing on a 2k screen then going "Huh I don't get it, how is this so popular" is not what you want

 

So this seems like a weird thing to say because Avatar did what it did in 2009 primarily as a non-4K showings, not to mention the DVD sales that were massive and certainly not 4K.  

 

 

[Grebacio]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

 

Having people going to a 2D showing on a 2k screen then going "Huh I don't get it, how is this so popular" is not what you want

Even if 3D is a plus, the movie is still hella enjoyable in 2D.  

I watched Avatar on 2D on its original run since there weren't 3D theatres on my city until June 2010, and I still was mind blown.

[stuart360]

16 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

So this seems like a weird thing to say because Avatar did what it did in 2009 primarily as a non-4K showings, not to mention the DVD sales that were massive and certainly not 4K.  

 

 

It was also the biggest selling BluRay of all time, until 'Frozen' passed it years later.

I have also seen 'First time Watching' movie reactors say its their fave movie of all time, after watching it first time on stream.

 

Sure the 3D was so good that it added to the experience, but even on 2D the film is great imo.

[Issac Newton]

Weekend box office Sept. 23-25, Sunday studio-reported estimates:

1.) Don’t Worry Darling (NL/WB), 4,113 theaters, Fri $9.55M, Sat $5.8M, Sun $3.8M, 3-day $19.2M/Wk 1

2.) The Woman King (Sony) 3,765 theaters Fri $2.975M (-56%), Sat $4.7M, Sun $3.4M, 3-day $11.1M (-41%)/Total $36.2M/Wk 2

3.) Avatar (re) (20th/Dis) 1,860 theaters, Fri $3.3M, Sat $4.1M, Sun $2.757M, 3-day $10M, Total $770.5M/Wk 1 of re-issue

4.) Barbarian (20th/Dis) 2,890 theaters (+550), Fri $1.4M (-29%), Sat $2M, Sun $1.29M, 3-day $4.8M (-26%)/Total $28.4M/Wk 3

5.) Pearl (A24) 2,982 (+47) theaters, Fri $585,5K (-55%), Sat $742,5K, Sun $590,5K, 3-day $1.918M (-39%)/Total $6.65M/Wk 2

6.) See How They Run(Sea) 2,404 theaters, Fri $570K (-47%)/Sat $796K, Sun $534K 3-day $1.9M (-37%)/Total: $6.1M/ Wk 2

7.) Bullet Train (Sony) 1,907 (-695) theaters, Fri $500K (-31%), Sat $810K, Sun $505K 3-day $1.81M (-29%)/, Total $99.2M/Wk 8

8.) DC League of Super-Pets (WB) 2,351 (-405) theaters, Fri $370K (-14%), Sat $820K, Sun $575K  3-day $1.76M (-19%)/Total $90M Wk 9

9.) Top Gun: Maverick (Par) 2,025 (-579) theaters, Fri $460K (-27%), Sat $725K, Sun $375K 3-day $1.56M (-30%), Total $711.5M/Wk 18

10.) Minions: Rise of Gru (Uni) 1,642 theaters (-328), Fri $210K (-22%), Sat $500K, Sun $330K, 3-day $1.04M (-25%), Total: $365.5M/Wk 13

 

Notables:

Moonage Daydream (NEON) 733 (+563) theaters, Fri $320K, Sat $315K Sun $287K /PTA $1,2K/3-day $922K (-25%)/Total $2.6M/Wk 2

[Elessar]

53 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Personally I would expect a $90-100M opening for Avatar 2

 

First one opened to 77m. I have a hard time seeing the sequel doing only marginally better 13 years later with higher ticket prices. Anything that is not at least within spitting distance of 150m would be disappointing.

[AJG]

9 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

First one opened to 77m. I have a hard time seeing the sequel doing only marginally better 13 years later with higher ticket prices. Anything that is not at least within spitting distance of 150m would be disappointing.

That opening weekend was crazy. 
 

In London it was snowing and icy. Everyone thought Avatar flopped opening weekend, problem was no one could go out to see it.

[grey ghost]

Why would an Avatar sequel have 5x legs?

 

That's way better than The Force Awakens.

[TheDude391]

2 hours ago, CJohn said:

Three Thousand Years of Longing was pretty great. Miller delivers again.

 

DWD tho...

I loved it but it took me a second viewing to get on board with the sudden shift in the third act.

[Webslinger]

Yikes at that Don't Worry Darling multiplier. I know it's undoubtedly the result of so much of the audience being there for Harry Styles (and the behind the scenes drama and poor reviews dampening some potential viewers' interest), but it's still weird to see an ostensible fall drama crumble so rapidly over its opening weekend. The drop next weekend will be brutal.

 

I'd call the Avatar number a win. It's a long movie that hasn't exactly suffered from a lack of availability in the last 13 years, and Disney was clearly pushing a format that hasn't been en vogue with audiences since the mid-'10s at the latest, so a double-digit re-release doesn't feel like anything to sneeze at.

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Why would an Avatar sequel have 5x legs?

 

 

Avatar is a general audience movie and they don't rush out to see it like the fan driven movies like Marvel and the rest

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

Why would an Avatar sequel have 5x legs?

 

That's way better than The Force Awakens.

Because of holidays, nearly 0 competition and because there's no rush to see an Avatar sequel on first day.

 

TFA have fan theories way before release and nobody wants spoilers, the same with MCU. Avatar is completely different.

[ThomasNicole]

I would say the franchise Avatar is closer to is Jurassic World 

 

There's not such a visible big buzz about them, it doesn't have a huge dedicated fanbase online, doesn't have much rush to see it too quick. 

 

And still, GP loves the concept and always just show up on theaters despite bad reviews and everything. I think Avatar will be exactly like this, but on a higher scale.

[DAJK]

Avatar 2 is going to have a TGM-type run (domestically, at least) as long as its good.

[hw64]

36 minutes ago, Elessar said:

 

First one opened to 77m. I have a hard time seeing the sequel doing only marginally better 13 years later with higher ticket prices. Anything that is not at least within spitting distance of 150m would be disappointing.

 

A $90-$100m opening weekend for Avatar 2 would mean fewer tickets sold than Avatar's $77m opening weekend in 2009. It's honestly completely out of the realm of possibility for Avatar 2 to have a lower opening weekend than Avatar's ticket price inflation-adjusted opening; the awareness, hype and interest will unavoidably be far higher this time around.

[YM!]

Universal/Working Title’s Ticket to Paradise. The Ol Parker-directed film is in its third weekend of early offshore rollout and continues to hum along, adding $11.1M this frame to reach a cume of $31M to date. It’s already running ahead of The Lost City by 8% well before domestic opens on October 21.
 

Wow, uh if Universal markets it these next few weeks feel pretty confident in $25-30m OW

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

I liked the first half but didn't think it stuck the landing quite as well.

Same. The last 20 minutes or so fell off. Until then I was all in.