Weekend Thread (9/22-24) | Weekend Estimates - DWD 19.35, Woman King 11, Avatar 10.5, Barbarian 4.8, See How They Run & Pearl 1.9

[filmlover]

Don't Worry Darling is probably seeing at least a 60% drop next weekend after how frontloaded it ended up being. I guess we'll see if Hollywood views Harry Styles as bankable or not if he gets another major acting gig soon.

 

Very solid results for the Avatar re-release. Anyone still not expecting the sequel to make an insane amount of bank this Christmas is going to be in for a surprise.

 

Really good drops all around this weekend. The Woman King's drop looks especially impressive when you consider it lost all large screen formats, $70M+ total is still on the table. Barbarian might end up with over $40M by the end of its run. Bullet Train will hit $100M next weekend.

Edited September 25, 2022 by filmlover

[Maggie]

8 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm not going that far, but at this point i think anyone expecting less than 100M OW for the sequel really need to wake up. 

 

If the movie is good and an exceptional theatrical experience like the first one, i think it will have insanely good holds after it's OW.

Yes, i was not a believer in the 1B domestic ( my predictions was 800M), but it doesn't sound too crazy right now.

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Not everywhere, it's missing Australia, Japan and a couple other SEA markets I think. But it's probably going to do very poor business in all of these except Australia anyway.

Probably a 80M WW total or so then. Not great.

[Eric the Ape]

42 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

 

I think that Sat jump is still underestimated factor cause people take Friday as be all. Hopefully Avatar stays above 10M with actuals. Disney should have given it more theaters, could have challenged DWD.

I mean it probably would have done like 3M more? Like obviously more theaters help, but it doesn’t cause an extra 10M in gross like this.

 

30 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

probably, but it's better to make less but give out more quality viewings.

Having people going to a 2D showing on a 2k screen then going "Huh I don't get it, how is this so popular" is not what you want

Tbh, the 3D was cool, but I honestly liked it when it was in 2D. It’s less distracting IMO, though it could be an issue of the HFR. It looked really weird at points tbh

 

14 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

So let me see if i get it 

 

Despite being no culture impact, Avatar already grossed 58M on China re-release last year, and now it's probably gonna gross another 60M with the remastered version? 

 

So around 120M on box office this decade with re-releases, seems excellent for an 2009 movie that nobody cares about.

Gotta be honest, the “lol at all the haters saying it has no impact” is starting to lose its luster.

[Eric the Ape]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I can't find the Review thread for Three Thousand Years of Longing. I would like to see what people thought of it. I feel like there is a lot to unpack.

Thought I put it up way back when. Sorry about that. I got the RTM thread up and ready

[WrathOfHan]

6 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I can't find the Review thread for Three Thousand Years of Longing. I would like to see what people thought of it. I feel like there is a lot to unpack.

I liked the first half but didn't think it stuck the landing quite as well.

[GOGODanca]

If anything this movie will help Styles career out, despite the terrible critical reception and middling audience reaction it still pulled in close to 20m OW, without him (or a movie star replacement) it might do like 10m OW

[TwoMisfits]

18 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I'm not going that far, but at this point i think anyone expecting less than 100M OW for the sequel really need to wake up. 

 

If the movie is good and an exceptional theatrical experience like the first one, i think it will have insanely good holds after it's OW.

 

I don't think anyone on the board is expecting less than $100M OW...expecting it under $522M total DOM and yet over $100M OW DOM seem like two ideas that have a lot of room to co-exist...

[Maggie]

3 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I don't think anyone on the board is expecting less than $100M OW...expecting it under $522M total DOM and yet over $100M OW DOM seem like two ideas that have a lot of room to co-exist...

Yes, they can coexist, but are you expecting under 522M? TG2 just made 700M and Avatar 2 is way more famous than an 80s movie

[WrathOfHan]

Can see a world where DWD is 5th next weekend:

 

Smile: 15M

Bros: 13M
TWK: 7.8M (-30%)

Avatar: 7.2M (-28%)

DWD: 7M (-64%)

[ThomasNicole]

11 minutes ago, Eric from Progressive said:

I mean it probably would have done like 3M more? Like obviously more theaters help, but it doesn’t cause an extra 10M in gross like this.

 

Tbh, the 3D was cool, but I honestly liked it when it was in 2D. It’s less distracting IMO, though it could be an issue of the HFR. It looked really weird at points tbh

 

Gotta be honest, the “lol at all the haters saying it has no impact” is starting to lose its luster.

Is it? 

 

There's 2 tweets from yesterday with 100k likes saying exactly that it doesn't have any impact and nobody can remember the characters names. 

 

Of course who like the movie will laugh that despite all that 13 year bad jokes, the movie is doing great numbers on theaters at the same time.

[ThomasNicole]

8 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I don't think anyone on the board is expecting less than $100M OW...expecting it under $522M total DOM and yet over $100M OW DOM seem like two ideas that have a lot of room to co-exist...

With the non-existent competition and the holidays, 5x multiplier from a 100M OW that isn't exactly huge would require a just okay WOM imo, but yes it's possible

 

I think 5x is happening, but if it opens way bigger than 100M, like 150-160M

[filmlover]

Personally I would expect a $90-100M opening for Avatar 2 followed by insane legs throughout the rest of the holidays into January, like the original. I was just looking at the January schedule the other week after Kraven the Hunter moved and that month is bleak now (the few wide releases are mostly action and horror titles that sound schlocky even on paper). The holiday holdovers and Oscar contenders will have no problem hanging around for a while with so little in the way of actually threatening competition.

[John Marston]

16 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Is it? 

 

There's 2 tweets from yesterday with 100k likes saying exactly that it doesn't have any impact and nobody can remember the characters names. 

 

Of course who like the movie will laugh that despite all that 13 year bad jokes, the movie is doing great numbers on theaters at the same time.

 

 

it’s true though that no one can remember the characters. The appeal of Avatar is the visuals and 3D

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, John Marston said:

 

 

it’s true though that no one can remember the characters. The appeal of Avatar is the visuals and 3D

 

Tell that to my Jake Sully tattoo

[John Marston]

22 minutes ago, Maggie said:

Yes, they can coexist, but are you expecting under 522M? TG2 just made 700M and Avatar 2 is way more famous than an 80s movie

 

 

avatar 2 won’t pass Top Gun domestically 

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, John Marston said:

 

 

it’s true though that no one can remember the characters. The appeal of Avatar is the visuals and 3D

Just go to Avatar thread and you'll find a lot of people that cares about the story and the characters, so yeah, you're wrong. 

[JustLurking]

Avatar is going to open well over 100M imho.

[Jonwo]

$19.2m seems alright for DWD considering the reviews and the mixed WOM. It's basically on par with what thrillers do in September. 

 

 

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Personally I would expect a $90-100M opening for Avatar 2 followed by insane legs throughout the rest of the holidays into January, like the original. I was just looking at the January schedule the other week after Kraven the Hunter moved and that month is bleak now (the few wide releases are mostly action and horror titles that sound schlocky even on paper). The holiday holdovers and Oscar contenders will have no problem hanging around for a while with so little in the way of actually threatening competition.

Avatar 2's leg will be heavily boosted by those who watch in 2D, coming back to see it in 3D.