Weekend Thread (9/22-24) | Weekend Estimates - DWD 19.35, Woman King 11, Avatar 10.5, Barbarian 4.8, See How They Run & Pearl 1.9

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

Good point about Avatar popularity. It's broadly popular as a spectacle but not as a discussion piece. It's something people will show up for to experience it but they aren't going to start developing theories on how unobtainium works exactly

 

 

 

 

 

 

That's my theory as well. 

 

It's not just that unlike all the franchises people compares with Avatar, it have only 1 movie and that's all for 13 years, but also that it's not the type of movie designed to being discussed. 

 

Not only MCU but most of franchises these days are made around easter eggs and theories so the fans can engage with them while waiting for the other entries every year and the brand is always trending.

 

Avatar was another type of blockbuster, made in another time. What's there to discuss? I'm a big fan of the movie and i don't talk about it. It doesn't help that the people online that loves Avatar doesn't really enter on stanwars, they're very peaceful. The fans on reddit are super sweet, they just watch the movie constantly and live their lives.

 

The problem is that these days people measure success and staying power with memes, quotes and engagement on social media, and pretty much all standalone movies doesn't have all that, but since Avatar is the rare case that is up there with all the franchises, people keeps questioning it. 

 

People maybe don't remember now, but not long ago similar questions are made about Titanic, another movie that don't fit the franchise logic. A lot of people online spend years convincing themselves that nobody likes Titanic and it made 2B just because young girls liked Leo.

 

We all know Avatar WOM was insane and appealed to pretty much every demographic possible, people remember having a great experience and it doesn't matter if they don't scream about it online, once the sequel is available people will quietly go to theaters. We're already seeing this with just a re-release. 

 

And Top Gun is a brilliant comparisson because we all saw people saying for 2 years here that it won't do big because it's fans are just old people and most of the audience don't care or don't remember about it.

[CJohn]

7 minutes ago, AJG said:

Unless somethings changed it should be going to Amazon in Europe. It’s a New Regency film.

This is even worse for me. Torrents it is then.

[ThomasNicole]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Pretty sure 6x legs for a sequel to a blockbuster is an anomoly.

 

December release or not.

Avatar had the biggest OW ever for December in 2009 and still have 10x multiplier, we can call that an anomaly as well. 

 

Of course the sequel will me more frontloaded, but there's nothing absurd in thinking it will double the first one OW and have half the legs to a similar total.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, Eric from Progressive said:

The whole structure of the movie didn’t do anything for me. Has the issue anthology films usually have where some stories are dull and go on too long, or are engaging but don’t go on long enough. Then the final third goes into a random story detour and it’s like…why did I watch this? Oh well.

The 3rd act felt off to me. I just didn't get the point. I feel like Miller wanted to talk about the power of love but the landing failed to deliver. I really liked the stories of the genie tho.

2 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

the last 20 minutes of 3k years of longing had more fade to blacks than return of the king. can't tell you how many times i was halfway out my seat.

This happened to me once lmao. I actually thought the movie had finished only for it to return one final time.

[grey ghost]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

Avatar had the biggest OW ever for December in 2009 and still have 10x multiplier, we can call that an anomaly as well. 

 

Of course the sequel will me more frontloaded, but there's nothing absurd in thinking it will double the first one OW and have half the legs to a similar total.

 

 

That would require a lightning in a bottle reception for two consecutive movies which would be yet another anomoly.

 

We shall see.

[ThomasNicole]

Just now, grey ghost said:

 

 

That would require a lightning in a bottle reception for two consecutive movies which would be yet another anomoly.

 

We shall see.

Three, if we count the Titanic - Avatar punch.

 

Which makes it harder, but shows he already repeat his absurd success once.

[XXR vs XXR]

9 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Avatar had the biggest OW ever for December in 2009 and still have 10x multiplier, we can call that an anomaly as well. 

 

Of course the sequel will me more frontloaded, but there's nothing absurd in thinking it will double the first one OW and have half the legs to a similar total.

 

This is basically what I expect will happen. OW will be in the $140-170M range and legs will be 4-5x. 

[krla]

5 hours ago, Borobudur said:

Avatar 2's leg will be heavily boosted by those who watch in 2D, coming back to see it in 3D. 

This sort of happened with the first one, but mostly because of a lack of 3D screens. I don't think that'll be an issue this time. Maybe for IMAX, but Avatar isn't going to hold onto those for long, whereas the original basically had free reign over all 3D screens for months.

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Good point about Avatar popularity. It's broadly popular as a spectacle but not as a discussion piece. It's something people will show up for to experience it but they aren't going to start developing theories on how unobtainium works exactly

 

 

 

 

 

 

The original Top Gun had massive cultural impact, to the point that people who had never seen the movie would quote lines from it. That definitely helps Top Gun: Maverick. But I don't think TGM's cultural impact is very significant. It was a very 'safe' movie. In a way, the original Avatar was similarly 'safe'. 

 

Also, Avatar has an extensive lore, it's own language, essentially a pokedex of all the animals and stuff living there. I think that may have been a bit of a reason why it isn't popular with fanfic and such, because there isn't much left to build on, and the movies didn't have strong characters to build off of. 

 

I'm surprised there isn't more furry stuff, though.. lol

[ringedmortality]

Top Gun: Maverick was such a big hit because Archer always said “Danger Zone”

[Flopped]

The original Top Gun is damn near unwatchable, though. It's iconic but BAD. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 hour ago, krla said:

This sort of happened with the first one, but mostly because of a lack of 3D screens. I don't think that'll be an issue this time. Maybe for IMAX, but Avatar isn't going to hold onto those for long, whereas the original basically had free reign over all 3D screens for months.

 

What movies are there to take imax screens from avatar?

No december movie is capable, and between jan-feb theres only 3

 

Babylon (wide 6/1), imax unconfirmed but if it happens it wont be a massive thing due to the type of movie this is

Titanic HFR re-release (10/2), will probably have imax,  doubt Cameron will allow it to stand in the way of a hypothetical record breaking run by avatar 2

Antman (17/2) it'll probably hit it hard, but  im sure disney would be willing to share if avatar 2 is in any sort of record breaking run

 

After that D&D on march 3, but if avatar 2 still making good money then itll probably take antmans imax screens, and avatar 2 on imax can thus continue being a significant thing till march 17 when the schedule starts to become pretty packed

 

is 55 days of imax supremacy,  + up to 35 of sharing, not "long"?

 

Edited September 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[stuart360]

2 hours ago, ThomasNicole said:

Three, if we count the Titanic - Avatar punch.

 

Which makes it harder, but shows he already repeat his absurd success once.

Can you imagine if A2 beats the orig movie, and Cameron has the 'biggest movie of all time' 3 times in a row!.

He may think he's 'king of the world', but he's really king of movies.

[TheDude391]

3 hours ago, CJohn said:

The 3rd act felt off to me. I just didn't get the point. I feel like Miller wanted to talk about the power of love but the landing failed to deliver. I really liked the stories of the genie tho.

The stuff after they leave the hotel is def weaker than the first two acts (which was 10/10 material for me). I'd recommend giving it another shot, knowing where it leads made me appreciate the set up and conclusion a lot more. Didn't feel as jarring, since it does take a sudden turn. But a very beautiful and touching film overall (great final shot). A bit clunky and oddly misshapen in the ways that only a master director could make when swinging for the fences.

[JustLurking]

2 hours ago, Flopped said:

The original Top Gun is damn near unwatchable, though. It's iconic but BAD. 

I watched it like the morning before I went to watch Maverick and I was on the verge of refunding my ticket LOL. Sequel was much better thankfully.

[Issac Newton]

Weekend Studio Estimates for September 23 - September 25, 2022

 

Rank	Film	Distributor	Weekend Gross	Locations	Location Average	%Change	Total Gross	TG ÷ OW	Week
1	Don't Worry Darling	Warner Bros. / New Line	$19,200,000	4,113	$4,668	NEW	$19,200,000	1.000	1
2	The Woman King	Sony / TriStar	$11,145,000	3,765	$2,960	-41.5%	$36,298,724	1.905	2
3	Avatar (re-issue)	Disney / 20th Century	$10,000,000	1,860	$5,376	NEW	$10,000,000	1.000	1
4	Barbarian	Disney / 20th Century	$4,800,000	2,890	$1,661	-26.2%	$28,430,261	2.696	3
5	Pearl	A24	$1,918,555	2,982	$643	-38.7%	$6,651,256	2.126	2
6	See How They Run	Disney / Searchlight	$1,900,000	2,502	$759	-36.8%	$6,105,039	2.030	2
7	Bullet Train	Sony / Columbia	$1,815,000	1,907	$952	-28.8%	$99,247,954	3.305	8
8	DC League of Super-Pets	Warner Bros.	$1,765,000	2,351	$751	-19.0%	$90,041,911	3.914	9
9	Top Gun: Maverick	Paramount	$1,559,847	2,025	$770	-30.4%	$711,568,000	5.616	18
10	Minions: The Rise of Gru	Universal	$1,040,000	1,642	$633	-25.3%	$365,547,230	3.416	13
11	The Invitation	Sony / Screen Gems	$1,000,000	1,676	$597	-43.4%	$23,083,944	3.392	5
12	Moonage Daydream	NEON	$922,000	733	$1,258	-25.0%	$2,600,526	2.114	2
	Brahmastra Part One: Shiva	Disney / Star Studios	$415,000	460	$902	-62.3%	$7,523,960	1.656	3
	Beast	Universal	$400,000	750	$533	-52.4%	$31,451,800	2.717	6
	Where the Crawdads Sing	Sony / Columbia	$350,000	879	$398	-50.9%	$89,577,551	5.192	11
	Cuando Sea Joven	Pantelion	$270,000	315	$857	NEW	$270,000	1.000	1
	Running the Bases	UP2U Films	$235,000	697	$337	-56.4%	$1,039,028	1.929	2
	Nope	Universal	$175,000	313	$559	-59.3%	$123,113,710	2.775	10
	On the Come Up	Paramount	$150,000	603	$249	NEW	$150,000	1.000	1
	Fall	Lionsgate	$120,000	167	$719	-6.5%	$7,063,960	2.812	7
	Thor: Love and Thunder	Disney	$100,000	230	$435	-73.4%	$343,152,809	2.380	12
	Confess, Fletch	Paramount	$84,235	242	$348	-68.4%	$498,000	1.867	2
	The Silent Twins	Focus	$32,000	279	$115	-69.2%	$185,655	1.788	2
	Bodies Bodies Bodies	A24	$18,254	172	$106	-76.5%	$11,394,824	3.505	8
	Marcel the Shell with Shoes On	A24	$15,552	25	$622	-52.7%	$6,306,640	7.213	14
	Everything Everywhere All At Once	A24	$9,057	28	$323	-39.6%	$69,993,467	11.313	27

[WrathOfHan]

Oh man, Jimbo delivered the goods with the Avatar remaster. Bring on Way of Water.

[filmlover]

6 hours ago, babz06 said:

It’s very strange that there aren’t more films coming out this Christmas. I guess studios were scared of avatar and just gave up.

It's a combo of Avatar and also the production backlog that has resulted in each studio putting out a limited quantity of movies this year. But each studio will have at least one major movie out for Christmas: Avatar from Disney, Puss in Boots from Universal, I Wanna Dance with Somebody from Sony, Babylon from Paramount (though that's going to make most of its money in January when it opens everywhere). And that's probably all that matters.

[charlie Jatinder]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

Personally I would expect a $90-100M opening for Avatar 2 followed by insane legs throughout the rest of the holidays into January,

I am expecting $200M+. Possibly 2nd biggest opening ever.

[Gavin Feng]

13 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I am expecting $200M+. Possibly 2nd biggest opening ever.

 

It don't feel that way at this point. If $200M opening happen, a biggest 2nd weekend would also come.

[IronJimbo]

lads and ladies, welcome to the decade of Avatar. It's finally here

 

This is your new star wars, except with global appeal