Weekend Thread (10/14-16) | Weekend Estimates: Halloween Ends 40.05, Smile 12.6, Lyle 7.3, Woman King 3.7, Amsterdam 2.8

[motionpic05]

Very weirdly, it looks like Ends is selling better in my area tonight than it did last night. 

Lots of walk ups today.

 

[The Dark Alfred]

It's nearly Halloween and TGM is still in the top 10

[wboxoffice]

Why is a movie like Halloween Ends expected to struggle to 100 million if it opens at something like 45+ million with Halloween still 2 weeks away?   One would think that at least the week of Halloween would be huge as it would get some kind of bump?  Usually it happens with Christmas movies I think.

Edited October 16, 2022 by wboxoffice

[Cooper Legion]

5 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

Why is a movie like Halloween Ends expected to struggle to 100 million if it opens at something like 45+ million with Halloween still 2 weeks away?   One would think that at least the week of Halloween would be huge as it would get some kind of bump?  Usually it happens with Christmas movies I think.

Halloween 2018 added 1.9x its SatSun. Halloween Kills added just 1.6x. With a hybrid release like HWK, and even worse reception, HWE will probably aim to add 1.5x for ~20OD+20SatSun+20*1.5rest=~70M.   
 

The Halloween holiday does offer some mild help, but it’s just one day which isn’t even a school holiday compared to 2-3 weeks or school break for Xmas, and it has less cultural oomph as a holiday. Doesn’t do much to counteract the extreme front loading of a poorly received slasher fan franchise.

[ringedmortality]

Smile is also there to take away Halloween's potential Halloween bump

[CaptNathanBrittles]

58 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

Why is a movie like Halloween Ends expected to struggle to 100 million if it opens at something like 45+ million with Halloween still 2 weeks away?   One would think that at least the week of Halloween would be huge as it would get some kind of bump?  Usually it happens with Christmas movies I think.

 

A softer Halloween drop won't help a disastrous 2nd week drop. Also the weekend following Halloween tends to be a huge drop.

[CJohn]

2 hours ago, wboxoffice said:

Why is a movie like Halloween Ends expected to struggle to 100 million if it opens at something like 45+ million with Halloween still 2 weeks away?   One would think that at least the week of Halloween would be huge as it would get some kind of bump?  Usually it happens with Christmas movies I think.

Check Halloween Kills' run and come back to us.

[motionpic05]

Am I missing something or is the $43 million OW for this fine?

The trades (deadline/variety) are acting like this is some sort of tragedy.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, motionpic05 said:

Am I missing something or is the $43 million OW for this fine?

The trades (deadline/variety) are acting like this is some sort of tragedy.

The final chapter of the franchise^{for now anyway} scoring the lowest opening in the current Blumhouse series is not good at all. It's paying for Kills's sins and it shows.

[motionpic05]

12 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The final chapter of the franchise^{for now anyway} scoring the lowest opening in the current Blumhouse series is not good at all. It's paying for Kills's sins and it shows.

Most "final chapters" end up lower than the other films though...

Star Wars, Fifty Shades, etc

 

 

[motionpic05]

Black Adam seems to be drumming up some buzz.

$50m OW seems pretty certain at this point.

[wboxoffice]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Check Halloween Kills' run and come back to us.

 

I know.  The question is more to try to find out the logic behind it.  I mean the week of Halloween is full of scary movies on tv, it seems that it's the theme that whole week and what people are into.  Yet it doesn't seem to necessarily translate into a big bump for a Halloween scary movie in theaters such as Halloween Ends or the previous ones.

 

 

Edited October 16, 2022 by wboxoffice

[motionpic05]

3 minutes ago, wboxoffice said:

 

I know.  The question is more to try to find out the logic behind it.  I mean the week of Halloween is full of scary movies on tv, it seems that it's the theme that whole week and what people are into.  Yet it doesn't seem to necessarily translate into a big bump for a Halloween scary movie in theaters such Halloween Ends or the previous ones.

I think another reason why it doesn't get a big jump on Halloween Day is just parents taking their kids trick or treating or going to parties. 

[Krissykins]

3 hours ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

The final chapter of the franchise^{for now anyway} scoring the lowest opening in the current Blumhouse series is not good at all. It's paying for Kills's sins and it shows.

This is nonsense. 
 

Day and date release, following poorly received Halloween Kills, piracy, bad reviews, bad reception and still doing $40m+ opening weekend. 
 

That speaks to the strength of the brand. It’ll make 5 times its production budget worldwide in the space of 3 weeks. 

It’s not performing as well as the previous entries, but “not good at all” is a reach.
 

 

Edited October 16, 2022 by Krissykins

[cookie]

2 hours ago, wboxoffice said:

 

I know.  The question is more to try to find out the logic behind it.  I mean the week of Halloween is full of scary movies on tv, it seems that it's the theme that whole week and what people are into.  Yet it doesn't seem to necessarily translate into a big bump for a Halloween scary movie in theaters such as Halloween Ends or the previous ones.

 

 

 

2 hours ago, motionpic05 said:

I think another reason why it doesn't get a big jump on Halloween Day is just parents taking their kids trick or treating or going to parties. 

They do get a bump. Halloween ’18 and Kills both vastly outperformed their competition on Halloween night.

 

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2018-10-31/?ref_=bo_rl_table_13

https://www.boxofficemojo.com/date/2021-10-31/?ref_=bo_rl_table_17

 

People then stopped caring the second the holiday was over. Two weeks later, Kills had gone from #2 to already out of the top ten. By Thanksgiving, it barely clung to the top thirty. These movies have zero shelf life past October.

Edited October 16, 2022 by cookie

[DAJK]

Yea I would be surprised if Halloween doesn't decrease from true Friday for today based on the regions I'm tracking. Not an awful drop today, but very unspectacular.

 

Smile had another great Saturday, up a healthy amount from Friday yet again. Feeling confident in 12-13M at this point.

 

Funny enough, Amsterdam seems to be holding pretty well in my region than in general. I'm looking at drops closer to 30-40%.

[baumer]

Watched Zombie's Halloween 2 for the first time in about a decade, last night.  I liked it so much more knowing that as bad as it is, it at least has the same DNA as other Halloween films and Myers is strong, vicious, brutal and scary.  Not like the last Halloween film I saw Thursday night. 

[baumer]

Oh and BTW, Amsterdam is dumpster fire too.  One of the biggest wastes of talent ever put on film.  And boring as hell.

[Eastwood47]

It always fascinates me how Deadline Hollywood quits following box office stats once a film they personally like shows an underperformance based on earlier expectations. Usually movies they like will have morning, afternoon and evening updates on Saturday. Halloween Ends certainly seem to be tracking that way with all the talk on Friday, but then... silence. 

 

One mention (on Saturday) of the film falling short of the $50 million expectation, (which I believe started out at $55 at one point), is met with a story about WHY and a whole range of excuses, none of which have to do with the fact audiences are hating it with a Cinema Score of C+. That's even lower than Resurrection which got a B+. Hell its the lowest the franchise has gotten since Cinema Score started tracking them. 

 

I would like to know if this is even tracking now to make $43 million. The Friday tally of $20 million is pulling in the Thursday/midnight shows so its actual take is more like $15 million for Friday. With such bad WOM and even the audience score pummeling the movie on RT, its going to be interesting whether this film gets the full benefit of a front loaded weekend with the bad news spreading so fast. I mean, who wants to see a film that only shows its star for ten minutes? I would be curious to know what impact that is having on turn out. 

And Baumer I am with you on your take. Whatever they were smoking in that writers meeting, I'm shocked they got Akkad on board to approve that. I'm also glad they have moved on to the Exorcist series instead of looking at Friday the 13th. Can you IMAGINE what they would have done to that franchise? Wowzers... Speaking of which, its time to get that series rolling again. Myers can be put on the back burner for six years until his 50th anniversary hits. I suspect they will reboot at H4 to celebrate those legacy characters, but we shall see. Jason needs to start swinging the axe again while this franchise takes a breather. 

[MrHardapple]

Around $13 million saturday for Halloween.