Weekend Thread (10/14-16) | Weekend Estimates: Halloween Ends 40.05, Smile 12.6, Lyle 7.3, Woman King 3.7, Amsterdam 2.8

[charlie Jatinder]

1 minute ago, Eric Strode said:

I'm not saying it'll have an amazing drop, but I don't see 80% for its second weekend at all? Like the only comparable was the 2009 Friday the 13th, which dealt with the 13th on its Friday and to an extent Valentine's Day the next day. That's some big holidays to help boost the film's opening, and it's not like Halloween will be over tomorrow. There's sure to be some people who will visit the film next week to get into the Halloween spirit. A drop in the 70s makes more sense.

We don't have SUN actuals yet, so gonna use SAT only. Kills 2nd weekend was 83% of its SAT.

If Ends follows that, would be $10.8M 2nd weekend. Quite possible it can be lower.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

Being a bit optimistic with that 40% Sunday drop methinks.

[Borobudur]

Smile basically become a TGM of horror genre for Paramount. Wish they can allow a exclusive window of >45 days.

[M37]

15 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

-40 sun way optimistic. Probably 40-40.5 though

Agreed. The only time Kills managed a -40% sun or better was on Halloween itself 

 

So a sub-8x from Thursday 

[Eric the IF]

 

[filmlover]

-	(-)	TÁR	Focus Features	$360,000	+127%	36	+32	$10,000	$584,846	2
-	(-)	Triangle of Sadness	Neon	$336,576	+57%	31	+21	$10,857	$657,051	2

 

-

N

Till

United Artists

$240,940

16

$15,059

$240,940

1

 

-

N

Decision to Leave

MUBI

$90,729

3

$30,243

$90,729

1

 

The Numbers - Weekend Box Office Chart for October 14, 2022 (the-numbers.com)

 

Good numbers all around for these specialty releases if you ask me. Curious how Till and TAR will do when they hit wide release in two weeks.

[Legion Again]

30 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

Could crack 6x without summer weekdays 

21st century NonDec* Fri opens with 20M+OW** and 6x+:

Hangover 45M-> 277M 6.16x

Shrek 42.4M -> 268M 6.3x

Wedding Crashers 34M -> 209M 6.17x

Bridesmaids 26.2M->169M 6.44x

 

Could smile compete for the top 🤔 (145.5M — seems tough for now)

*Also excluding late Nov releases that leaned hard on Xmas (The Blind Side)

 

**Actually 20.47+ because that’s where the mojo list ends (rank 1000)

[Eric the IF]

32 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

We don't have SUN actuals yet, so gonna use SAT only. Kills 2nd weekend was 83% of its SAT.

If Ends follows that, would be $10.8M 2nd weekend. Quite possible it can be lower.

That's still 74%. An 80+% drop would mean an 8.25M weekend. Only 15 movies have dropped more than 80% on their second weekends. And of them I only recognize like...six of them off the top of my head. Two of them are re-releases of classic films, so they don't even count. Plus these are films that seem to be from smaller studios, lost theaters in their second weekend, and only played in a couple hundred theaters anyways. Halloween Kills is almost guaranteed to retain almost all its locations, so an 80+% drop is nearly impossible. It would have to have as good a calendar for its opening as Friday the 13th (it didn't) or have WOM as atrocious as Gigli (it doesn't).

 

If even The Devil Inside, a film with perhaps the worst WOM in cinema history, only dropped 76%, I think Halloween Kills isn't going to fall worse than that.

[Krissykins]

holdover international markets down only -16% for Smile, despite Halloween Ends. Incredible. 

[Legion Again]

Worst I can see is 9-9.5ish (76.5-77.5ish)

[Legion Again]

Deadline write up his weekend is absolutely hilarious

[Maggie]

What a sad weekend. SAVE US, ROCK!

[CaptNathanBrittles]

SMILE's legs are particularly perplexing considering the reception isn't anything out of the ordinary.

[CJohn]

Halloween Ends is paying for being an insane movie. You don't do a Halloween sequel with this script. This is insane. Dominion on steroids is the best description. 75%+ 2nd weekend drop is coming. 

 

Peacock didn't kill it. WOM did. 

[CJohn]

I saw The Woman King today and I thought it was really good. Hopefully somehow it gets to 70M DOM total. Feels like a good ending point for it.

 

Smile is just insane. Lets see if Black Adam doesn't hurt it too much.

[ringedmortality]

But Dominion was fun at least

[WayneBorg]

 

[Caylu]

Isn't Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile 2nd weekend pretty good from expectation?

[DAJK]

19 minutes ago, CaptNathanBrittles said:

SMILE's legs are particularly perplexing considering the reception isn't anything out of the ordinary.

I think part of it is that many people were aware it existed before it released, but the general consensus (at least among my generation) was “LOL this is going to suck isn’t it”

 

And so when the movie turns out to be pretty good, the conversation turns into “hey remember that movie that looked pretty bad? Well I just saw it and it’s actually really good!” I really think it’s a case of a good premise/hook, viral marketing that made people aware of the film even though it made it look cheesy/campy, and a solid final product.

[Eric the IF]

2 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think part of it is that many people were aware it existed before it released, but the general consensus (at least among my generation) was “LOL this is going to suck isn’t it”

 

And so when the movie turns out to be pretty good, the conversation turns into “hey remember that movie that looked pretty bad? Well I just saw it and it’s actually really good!” I really think it’s a case of a good premise/hook, viral marketing that made people aware of the film even though it made it look cheesy/campy, and a solid final product.

Can confirm. I got the trailer for this in front of TGM and my parents and I were laughing our butts off at how dumb the concept was. A bunch of creepy smiles? That’s a whole horror movie? They ran out of ideas at this rate.

 

But then I saw that reviews were good and I was taken aback by it. Made me legit intrigued. Ended up just thinking the movie was a fine 6/10 like Black Phone. But like Black Phone, I get the legs. Simple, easy to convey premise, a strong emotional backstory for the main character, a lot of good scares peppered in. There’s little reason for people not to like it, outside of just not liking scary movies altogether.