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Eric the Fall Guy

Weekend Thread (10/14-16) | Weekend Estimates: Halloween Ends 40.05, Smile 12.6, Lyle 7.3, Woman King 3.7, Amsterdam 2.8

By Eric the Fall Guy, in Numbers and Data

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ViewerAnon Sleeper Hit

ViewerAnon

Posted
Posted (edited)

It's been a busy workday and maybe I'm reading these wrong but I don't understand all the "I think Ends is gonna drop BIG!" posts. Yeah, of course it is. It's a franchise slasher movie (that's also available "for free" at home) - they were posting huge drops before it was cool.

 

Friday the 13th (2009): -80.4%

A Nightmare On Elm Street (2010): -72.3%

Texas Chainsaw 3D: -75.7%

Halloween (2018): -58.8%

Scream (2022): -59.3%

 

Even H20 fell 47.6% a quarter century ago and that was off a Wednesday opening.

 

Take H2018's drop, factor in added rush due to losing some casuals along the way plus a "final chapter" bump, and of course Ends is going to drop 70%. The question is whether it's closer to 80%.

Edited by ViewerAnon
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AJG Global Phenomenon

AJG

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Posted
2 hours ago, AJG said:

Rotten Verified In just one day. Absolutely crazy.
 

9-D85-EA61-60-EF-4-A54-B149-81-B967-C32-

 

Cinemascore will be a sight to behold.


edit: it keeps going lower. Unreal for a major studio franchise film.

 

Guess the Verified Score by Sunday? I say 49%

99241-AD2-01-C9-47-A3-8-CDD-423-A50593-E

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Eric the Fall Guy Global Phenomenon

Eric the Fall Guy

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https://deadline.com/2022/10/box-office-halloween-ends-1235144913/

 

Quote

FRIDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: As of this minute, Halloween Ends isn’t looking as super as what the forecasts had –meaning in the $50M range. Still, at a $43M opening, it’s not shabby for a film that cost $30M. Remember, it is a threequel. Universal can brag that it’s the sixth year in a row (8th time) that the studio has had a No. 1 opening with a horror movie after 2017’s Get Out, 2018’s Halloween, 2019’s Us, 2020’s Freaky, 2021’s Candyman and Halloween Kills and this year’s Nope and Halloween Ends.

Today, including last night’s $5.4M previews, looks to be $20M at 3,901 theaters, just 12% under Halloween Kills first day. Maybe there will be a west coast or late night bump, but that’s what the numbers are looking like as of now against historical comps of Halloween and Halloween Kills. The last Michael Myers movie posted a 24% Friday/previews-to-Saturday decline.

 

Maybe Paramount’s Smile is stealing some of the business: The third weekend of the Parker Finn horror movie is only expected to ease 37% for $11.75M and a running total of $70.5M. Friday is $3.6M, -32%, at 3,612 theaters.

 

The second weekend of Sony’s Lyle, Lyle, Crocodile is in third place with a $1.9M Friday, -48% and 3-day of $7M at 4,350 theaters, -47%, and ten day of $22.4M.

 

Fourth is TriStar’s The Woman King at 2,565 theaters and a 5th Friday of $933K, -29%, $3.5M weekend, -32% for a running total of $56.6M.

 

Fifth place is New Regency/20th Century Studios/Disney’s New Amsterdam at 3,005 for a $900K Friday, -66% and second weekend of $2.9M, -55% and ten-day of $11.9M.

 

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