Halloween Weekend Thread (10/28-30) | Weekend Estimates: Adam 27.7, Paradise 10, Devil 7, Smile 5, Ends 3.8

[Cmasterclay]

All I know is if we are cosigning movies like Tar and Till to 5 million total domestic, then the market for those movies (aka the good ones) is toast within two years. Doom, gloom, etc. You may say those movies would not have made much regardless, and you're not wrong, obviously they wouldn't have been huge hits. But look at historical comps from just, like, 2017. Movies with these kind of reviews and award buzz and that wide of release would still do 25m. And that difference is not nothing. 

[DAJK]

I think there’s a difference between Tar and Till not doing well however. Tár, from what I’ve heard from people I know irl at least, is not very audience friendly outside of the “20-something film Twitter Letterboxd hipsters” and I can totally understand why it would tank in wide release.

 

Till on the other hand, while very difficult to watch, is extremely audience-friendly. It’s not too “artsy”, it’s straightforward, gut-wrenching etc. This is the one that really baffles me, maybe there was just a complete and utter lack of promotion for it (I myself would have never heard of it if it hadn’t been for these boards).

[filmlover]

28 minutes ago, datpepper said:

 

And conversely, BOM is listing Empire of Light as wide and Whale as limited! I always figured they were limited on the 9th, but maybe one or both of them will take advantage of the empty weekend.

The weekend after the post-Thanksgiving weekend spot and right before the Christmas releases begin charging through has been an odd one for a while because anything put there runs the risk of being gone by Christmas when the rush of releases force theaters to drop stuff. Looking at the schedule, there's actually a good chance Black Panther is #1 up until Avatar comes out, unless Violent Night overperforms.

 

27 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

All I know is if we are cosigning movies like Tar and Till to 5 million total domestic, then the market for those movies (aka the good ones) is toast within two years. Doom, gloom, etc. You may say those movies would not have made much regardless, and you're not wrong, obviously they wouldn't have been huge hits. But look at historical comps from just, like, 2017. Movies with these kind of reviews and award buzz and that wide of release would still do 25m. And that difference is not nothing. 

Oh I'm not disagreeing, I'm just not sure it's possible given the windows that studios have placed upon movies in this day and age. Before the pandemic, a movie like TAR might have been some time to take advantage of awards buzz as much as it could (something difficult to do with an October release unless you're a heavily-promoted major studio release). But now? It'll more likely than not be streaming on Peacock by Christmas. Ditto Banshees and Hulu.

Edited October 31, 2022 by filmlover

[CJohn]

35 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

All I know is if we are cosigning movies like Tar and Till to 5 million total domestic, then the market for those movies (aka the good ones) is toast within two years. Doom, gloom, etc. You may say those movies would not have made much regardless, and you're not wrong, obviously they wouldn't have been huge hits. But look at historical comps from just, like, 2017. Movies with these kind of reviews and award buzz and that wide of release would still do 25m. And that difference is not nothing. 

But everyone just prefers to pretend the market is fine and recovery is fine when it clearly isn't.

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, DAJK said:

I think there’s a difference between Tar and Till not doing well however. Tár, from what I’ve heard from people I know irl at least, is not very audience friendly outside of the “20-something film Twitter Letterboxd hipsters” and I can totally understand why it would tank in wide release.

 

Till on the other hand, while very difficult to watch, is extremely audience-friendly. It’s not too “artsy”, it’s straightforward, gut-wrenching etc. This is the one that really baffles me, maybe there was just a complete and utter lack of promotion for it (I myself would have never heard of it if it hadn’t been for these boards).

I did see a lot of ads for Till, but I'm guessing there was only so much they could do to sell folks on seeing a tragic true story. Will be curious to see how MGM does with Bones & All and Women Talking over these final months as well.

[Cmasterclay]

11 minutes ago, CJohn said:

But everyone just prefers to pretend the market is fine and recovery is fine when it clearly isn't.

I work in Democratic politics for a living and we are a week from the midterms. Between that and these boards, delusional optimists who are saying things are fine when they're clearly a disaster have taken over my life.

[DAJK]

12 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I did see a lot of ads for Till, but I'm guessing there was only so much they could do to sell folks on seeing a tragic true story. Will be curious to see how MGM does with Bones & All and Women Talking over these final months as well.

Bones and All will tank. Women Talking I can see making 30M+ total since it's going to be a major Oscar player.

[misterpepp]

All of this is completely anecdotal, so take this for what you will, but a lot of older family members and friends of mine post-COVID have made it clear that they no longer wish to see "dark" or "depressing" movies at all anymore, no matter how good the reviews are. I don't think it helps that these awards contenders always seem to be the most dour and bleak things you can find in theaters, and sure enough all the ones I've been to in the past couple years (which is nearly all of them!) have played to an otherwise mostly-deserted auditorium. I've talked to plenty of people who are absolutely certain that Till is a great movie, for instance, but not a single one of those individuals actually wants to see it or any of the other award-hopefuls this year, and these were people who normally would've gone to see all of them in time for the Oscars ceremony. They made time for CODA, but didn't even see the otherwise-hopeful Belfast because even that had a slightly depressing subject matter.

 

But there's also streaming, shorter windows, COVID concerns, lower product output, etc., which I don't doubt are also taking a toll on these kinds of movies in particular. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Edited October 31, 2022 by datpepper

[Ezen Baklattan]

TAR is weird because it's definitely not the kind of film that would have done well even before COVID, but like @Cmasterclay, you could at least get $25m out of it if all went well. Then again, Tammy Faye still won an oscar last year with a worse total than what TAR already made, heh.

 

 

Till is definitely the one I'm more surprised at. I definitely understand the apprehension at another film focusing on black trauma, but I think between the strong reviews and the more affirming take on the story than people expected, it might have done better. At least it has some time to build that WOM before Black Panther takes every screen.

 

Banshees seems...okay so far? PTA drop is definitely a little worrying but it should probably be less scathed than TAR/Triangle of Sadness.

 

It seems like now is a weird time to release these platform-based films rather than closer to the holidays/January, but oh well.

 

[SLAM!]

9 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Bones and All will tank. Women Talking I can see making 30M+ total since it's going to be a major Oscar player.

Releasing wide on Christmas will definitely help. But in what capacity is the question!

[Eric S'ennui]

For what it's worth, I do remember some Twitter discourse on Till and how it was another 12 Years a Slave-style "Black trauma" movie and that Emmett was being "exploited" by Hollywood. They even had to put out a whole behind the scenes video where the director said to the camera that Emmett's abuse wouldn't be shown on screen and that the Till family backed the whole thing. I definitely have a lot of disagreements on that whole discourse, but like...I guess that's an issue? Certainly not the main one of course.

 

Still think the main issue hurting the moviegoing market, as I keep saying, is on audiences and their refusal to see anything that isn't a nostalgic toy commercial or a horror movie. Like even the few exceptions to this rule we all went gonzo over like Crawdads or Lost City, while obviously still strong and commendable hits that deserve praise, would have made way more money 10 years ago. It's a sad state of current moviegoing that's only going to get worse as time goes on.

[WrathOfHan]

Saw Banshees tonight and the PTA drop makes sense. My audience liked it but I heard several people saying it was a bit strange on the way out. It probably won't find a larger audience until it's on Hulu like Nightmare Alley did; don't think a low box office will impact its Oscar chances tho

[Eric S'ennui]

4 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Saw Banshees tonight and the PTA drop makes sense. My audience liked it but I heard several people saying it was a bit strange on the way out. It probably won't find a larger audience until it's on Hulu like Nightmare Alley did; don't think a low box office will impact its Oscar chances tho

Was hoping to take my mom to this next week since she loved Three Billboards. I'm aware that this has little similarities with that film, but would she still like it? She can enjoy the occasional "weird" movie, but she really only likes middlebrow awards bait stuff.

[WrathOfHan]

39 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I did see a lot of ads for Till, but I'm guessing there was only so much they could do to sell folks on seeing a tragic true story. Will be curious to see how MGM does with Bones & All and Women Talking over these final months as well.

Having seen both already, they can do well with general audiences IF MGM expands them well. Bones and All has been getting good trailer placement and benefits from early December being dead, and Women Talking is as much of a crowdpleaser as a prestige movie with darker subject matter can be.

[filmlover]

26 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Bones and All will tank. Women Talking I can see making 30M+ total since it's going to be a major Oscar player.

I wouldn't have any box office expectations for Women Talking given how much #MeToo-related movies have been struggling to find an audience in theaters (see: Bombshell, The Last Duel). Expect She Said will join them in a few weeks with a sub-$20M total. Movies dealing with the subject are going to be this decade's equivalent to the Iraq War movies that all flopped in the late 2000s.

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

Was hoping to take my mom to this next week since she loved Three Billboards. I'm aware that this has little similarities with that film, but would she still like it?

It's... a bit more graphic than the trailer leads on. Compare the MPAA ratings of them and decide for yourself if you don't want to read spoilers.

Edited October 31, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[AnDr3s]

it seems like  black adam is gonna barely break even unless it breaks out in china

[WrathOfHan]

3 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I wouldn't have any box office expectations for Women Talking given how much #MeToo-related movies have been struggling to find an audience in theaters (see: Bombshell, The Last Duel). Expect She Said will join them in a few weeks with a sub-$20M total. Movies dealing with the subject are going to be this decade's equivalent to the Iraq War movies that all flopped in the late 2000s.

She Said will be lucky if it makes 10M. I haven't seen it yet, but nobody wants to see a Harvey Weinstein expose when this only happened a few years ago (it was actually fairly easy to get tickets to secondary NYFF showings of it compared to Women Talking lol). Women Talking at least has a unique narrative and is being sold on its ensemble (which tbf general audience members won't care much about).

Edited October 31, 2022 by WrathOfHan

[Eric S'ennui]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

It's... a bit more graphic than the trailer leads on. Compare the MPAA ratings of them and decide for yourself if you don't want to read spoilers.

Reading through IMDb, doesn't seem much worse than Three Billboards. And Mom can handle violent and sexual content. Hopefully she'll be interested, though she said she wants to see Armageddon Time as well and that's probably going to leave theaters sooner. Maybe I should prioritize that? I dunno, I'm just rambling 🤷‍♂️

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, Ericstein's Monster said:

Reading through IMDb, doesn't seem much worse than Three Billboards. And Mom can handle violent and sexual content. Hopefully she'll be interested, though she said she wants to see Armageddon Time as well and that's probably going to leave theaters sooner. Maybe I should prioritize that? I dunno, I'm just rambling 🤷‍♂️

On the contrary, Armageddon Time will be on Peacock sooner than Banshees will be on Hulu