Halloween Weekend Thread (10/28-30) | Weekend Estimates: Adam 27.7, Paradise 10, Devil 7, Smile 5, Ends 3.8

[M37]

6 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Can't blame it all on Halloween weekend. It's an annual fallback/argument when a film drops considerably.

Just quoting so I can bookmark this comment to refer back to next week when Black Adam holds at sub-40%. Because I already told y'all how this was going to play out

 

 

[Skim Beeble]

6 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Black Adam's drop is about as good as expected given that it was naturally frontloaded last weekend and WOM seems average/unenthusiastic at best. We'll see how well it survives the Black Panther onslaught in two weeks (next weekend should see kind holds across the board with nothing truly of note coming out).

I feel like One Piece taking most PLF's next week might hurt Black Adam just a tad as well.

[HouseOfTheSun]

2 minutes ago, M37 said:

Just quoting so I can bookmark this comment to refer back to next week when Black Adam holds at sub-40%. Because I already told y'all how this was going to play out

 

 

The weekday holds were troubling, and pointing to a drop like this. And there’s no Halloween factor there….and will it even matter if it holds well next week? Dropping this much right now will mean the base is very low to begin with, so a good hold doesn’t mean much. And then it’s a dead man walking the following weekend. 

[John Marston]

Can see BA falling short of Elvis 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

Just saw Tár (in a 200-seat auditorium, all 8 of us had plenty of room) and Cate will be all right with two Oscars... I agree with the assessment that the performance is more DDL in Phantom Thread than There Will Be Blood. Who knows how awards season will play out, but IMO Tár's the kind of movie/character with a high potential to play very badly with the Anonymous Oscar Ballot types.

[ringedmortality]

12 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

Just saw Tár (in a 200-seat auditorium, all 8 of us had plenty of room) and Cate will be all right with two Oscars... I agree with the assessment that the performance is more DDL in Phantom Thread than There Will Be Blood. Who knows how awards season will play out, but IMO Tár's the kind of movie/character with a high potential to play very badly with the Anonymous Oscar Ballot types.

 

Yeah kind of an unlikable character. But also, it's just kind of a subtle performance. Blanchett's last two wins for Aviator and Blue Jasmine were a lot showier.

[Ozymandias]

15 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

Blanchett is considered one of the greatest living actresses. On the level of like Meryl Streep.

 

Greater than the foundations of the Earth?

[Flopped]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Yeah kind of an unlikable character. But also, it's just kind of a subtle performance. Blanchett's last two wins for Aviator and Blue Jasmine were a lot showier.

Unlikable character is not an issue. Those can be juicy and fun. She played a horrible woman in Blue Jasmine. 

 

Incredibly slow, long and talky (about esoteric topics) is the issue. 

 

 

[Cap]

6 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said:

but IMO Tár's the kind of movie/character with a high potential to play very badly with the Anonymous Oscar Ballot types.

I just saw it. Absolutely hated it. I was raging texting to my friend, who replied: “It sounds like something an Anonymous Oscar Ballot will say “turned I the screener off half-way through, but I am voting for Cate anyway.”

 

Also saw Woman King. Phenomenal. Shame that it peaked too early, but I would say we should just drop Best Supporting Oscar off at Lynch’s house right now. 
 

(Angela is still waiting on the wings, but we haven’t seen the full performance yet!)

 

ETA:

5 hours ago, Flopped said:

Incredibly slow, long and talky (about esoteric topics) is the issue. 

 

I was so frustrated by this. Because I like the subject matter. I was perfectly fine following all of the conversations they were having. It just felt so dry. It felt like something that I would listen to off a YouTube video while I was playing the Sims.

 

Also, for a movie that is supposedly about a conductor, I found the sound and score shockingly uninspiring.

[ringedmortality]

In terms of Lead Actress, I’m currently thinking that Robbie wins.

[Flopped]

39 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

In terms of Lead Actress, I’m currently thinking that Robbie wins.

 

Rooting for Michelle Williams. 

 

50 minutes ago, Cap said:

 

I was so frustrated by this. Because I like the subject matter. I was perfectly fine following all of the conversations they were having. It just felt so dry. It felt like something that I would listen to off a YouTube video while I was playing the Sims.

 

Also, for a movie that is supposedly about a conductor, I found the sound and score shockingly uninspiring.

 

It's a shame because In the Bedroom and Little Children are talky too, but riveting dramas. 

[Flopped]

@charlie Jatinder give us Sat #s if you got them pls 

[filmlover]

I likely won't see TAR until it becomes available on streaming at this point, which probably won't be long (its wide expansion is mediocre enough to ensure that this is the end of the line for its box office run with an October release, nor do I see Focus delaying its streaming release considering it'll be pretty much out of theaters everywhere by Christmas), but in terms of Best Actress frontrunners, I still think we shouldn't write off Williams even now that she's looking to switch to Lead, a more crowded category (Universal is the only remaining studio that hasn't posted their 2022 FYC page so maybe they're still deciding lol). I keep thinking back to Olivia Colman in The Favourite comparison where her going Lead was considered a bold move (everyone thought Stone would be submitted there originally), one that obviously ended up paying off, and Williams is starting to be considered overdue since this will be her fifth nomination.

[SLAM!]

I saw Tár on Friday and I thought it was exceptional. Yes it’s long, yes it’s slow, yes it’s dry, yes it’s ‘boring’, but in spite of all that it manages to be a riveting and wildly original film that grips you from beginning to end. It’s very subtle but out of everything releasing this year, it’s perhaps the most subtextually rich film of the year. I understand the grievances but the film gets a rave from me!

[Felandria]

1 hour ago, ringedmortality said:

In terms of Lead Actress, I’m currently thinking that Robbie wins.

She will have to take it from Michelle Yeoh’s cold, dead hands.

[Webslinger]

I also saw Tár today. I adored it (second favorite of the year so far, behind Everything Everywhere…) and absolutely think Blanchett is awards-worthy, but I do agree with the assessment that “difficult character in a difficult film” could make a third Oscar win tricky. The film does not shy away from depicting her character as a terrible person, and Todd Field’s directorial approach will probably turn some viewers off as too cold and detached.

[Flopped]

RRR might be my fave movie of the year. 

 

And Mia Goth for fave performance. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

The mediocre weekday holds for Black Adam were foreshadowing for a pretty bad second weekend drop. 63% sounds about right, although I'm expecting the actual number to be closer to 65%. This is going to barely make more than Shazam on double the budget, which doesn't bode well at all for sequel prospects. Which would be a shame, as I'd have liked to see how Dwayne would have fared with a more fulfilling script. I guess we'll never find out.

 

Warner must be very concerned for Shazam 2 right about now. If not even The Rock can convince people, then what chance does Zachary Levi have?

[Caylu]

3 hours ago, Flopped said:

@charlie Jatinder give us Sat #s if you got them pls 

When can we see some estimates?

[Krissykins]

18 hours ago, Boxofficerules said:

Any word on Terrifier 2

A $371 pta unfortunately, maybe reached too wide at 1,550 locations. Friday number was only an extra $29k compared to last Friday when it was in less than half the cinemas. 
 

 

Till’s expansion PTA is poor as well.