Halloween Weekend Thread (10/28-30) | Weekend Estimates: Adam 27.7, Paradise 10, Devil 7, Smile 5, Ends 3.8

[AJG]

20 minutes ago, grim22 said:

What are you talking about? They had 25M since yesterday. They haven't updated it at all. Here's the Deadline estimates from yesterday morning

 

 

They 1000% edited the article (which is kinda getting me more excited for Deadline Tony's inevitably ridiculous Sunday Morning write up).

[Legion Again]

No it literally said 25M last morning.  
 

Now that sat has come in, it will be edited… up to 27M

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

10 hours ago, Cap said:

I just saw it. Absolutely hated it. I was raging texting to my friend, who replied: “It sounds like something an Anonymous Oscar Ballot will say “turned I the screener off half-way through, but I am voting for Cate anyway.”

 

7 hours ago, Webslinger said:

I also saw Tár today. I adored it (second favorite of the year so far, behind Everything Everywhere…) and absolutely think Blanchett is awards-worthy, but I do agree with the assessment that “difficult character in a difficult film” could make a third Oscar win tricky. The film does not shy away from depicting her character as a terrible person, and Todd Field’s directorial approach will probably turn some viewers off as too cold and detached.

AMPAS voters will go for something they don't personally enjoy if it's "important" somehow, or they think it's someone's "time" to win and no one else strikes them as a better option.  I just don't know if they will embrace Tár that way for the win; practically all of Cate's competition will be easier for AMPAS to watch. I think Fraser will face the same issue in Best Actor, but even that has the transformation element and a more sympathetic character.

 

Watch I Wanna Dance with Somebody be a hit during the holidays and the voters will just check off the biopic performance. Film Twitter will explode as Elvis and Whitney become Oscar-winning roles in the same year...

[AJG]

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

No it literally said 25M last morning.  
 

Now that sat has come in, it will be edited… up to 27M

 

Look at the date of this tweet

 

 

 

[VENOM]

2 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

No it literally said 25M last morning.  
 

Now that sat has come in, it will be edited… up to 27M

 

Deadline is literally calling 25M saturday estimates. Maybe you didn’t read what I wrote properly but deadline edited Fridays estimates which were 27M to 25M after Saturdays estimates. So no it was edited down  

 

Saturday estimates:

1.) Black Adam (NL) 4,402 theaters, Fri $7.5M (-72%) 3-day $25M (-63%)/Total $108.4M/Wk 2

 

 

 

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, AJG said:

 

Look at the date of this tweet

 

 

 

If you look at the time that tweet was sent you’ll see that I am right and you are wrong.

[Legion Again]

On Friday morning (when that tweet was sent) they est 27M — based on Th, pre-wknd projection.  
 

On Saturday morning, they est 25M, based on Fri. First and only wknd est, and the one that is still current. Never edited.
 

In an hour or two they’ll report the studio est of ~27M based on Sat.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Legion By Night

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, VENOM said:

So BA will come in about 2 million below the lowball estimate 

This was the initial comment. 25M was the lowball estimate. It will come on 2M above, not 2M below. Still an underwhelming 2nd weekend but not really notably bad or notably good.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Legion By Night

[VENOM]

4 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

This was the initial comment. 25M was the lowball estimate. It will come on 2M above, not 2M below. Still an underwhelming 2nd weekend but not really notably bad or notably good.

The lowball estimate was 27M. 27M-25M = 2M quick maths 

[VENOM]

18 minutes ago, Legion By Night said:

If you look at the time that tweet was sent you’ll see that I am right and you are wrong.

I don’t know how you’ve worked that one out but he’s definitely right and you’re definitely wrong. It says 28th which is Friday and depending on which time zone you live in the time could say anything 

Edited October 30, 2022 by VENOM

[Flopped]

When did women over 30 become hesitant to go to the movies? When you look at the late 80s and early 90s they really drove ticket sales. And they dictated who would become a star. Feels like that's part of why we don't have stars anymore - the people who made stars don't go to the movies like they used to. 

[M37]

7 minutes ago, VENOM said:

I don’t know how you’ve worked that one out but he’s definitely right and you’re definitely wrong. It says 28th which is Friday and depending on which time zone you live in the time could say anything 

The $27M number was the pre-weekend forecast, which was included in the Friday AM post with Prey for the Devil previews. After Friday daily estimate, they went with $25M weekend estimate (which was too low, should have been $26-$27, but estimates were totally mailed in for that update), and after Sat, it’s going to be very close to that original forecast of $27M

 

So nothing “dropped”, except for Deadline’s math skills 

[TwoMisfits]

Looking at holdovers, it seems we're looking at final BO totals of:

 

Woman King - roughly $70M

Lyle, Lyle - roughly $42M

Halloween Ends - just under $70M

Smile - roughly $105M (if the end of Halloween ends its great legs) - maybe $110M if it doesn't

[Ipickthiswhiterose]

11 minutes ago, Flopped said:

When did women over 30 become hesitant to go to the movies? When you look at the late 80s and early 90s they really drove ticket sales. And they dictated who would become a star. Feels like that's part of why we don't have stars anymore - the people who made stars don't go to the movies like they used to. 

 

Great question.

 

I'd argue they were knocked out of the conversation firstly by the mainstreamification of geek culture.

 

And then the second blow of younger female skewing YA.

 

It also probably doesn't help that rather akin to horror anything that was marketed at older women tended (and tends) to be critically assaulted, or at least sneered at.

 

There's also now such a constant slew of easy watch romcoms on tv and streaming that it feels unnecessary for that genre unless you add either massive opulence (SATX/Crazy Rich Asians) or preposterous star power like TTP.

 

And finally, it probably doesn't help that new stars - especially female ones - are being predetermined at ever-younger ages. Nobody really comes on the scene in their late 20s early 30s out of nowhere organically like Clooney or even Bullock did anymore.

 

Since realising with Angelina Jolie that they could choose a 'chosen one', bung them an Oscar early on and market the crap out of them; Hollywood has much preferred that to the organic route. See J Law, Emma Stone, Zellweger, Robbie etc.

Edited October 30, 2022 by Ipickthiswhiterose

[VENOM]

4 minutes ago, Flopped said:

When did women over 30 become hesitant to go to the movies? When you look at the late 80s and early 90s they really drove ticket sales. And they dictated who would become a star. Feels like that's part of why we don't have stars anymore - the people who made stars don't go to the movies like they used to. 

An interesting question… Top Gun Maverick brought them out.

 

Nowadays streaming platforms and a lot of movies that turn out to be stinkers have made people more reluctant to go see things they might have in the past unless it’s a Top Gun Maverick. So far this year it has been the only film that was a must watch at the theatre.

[efialtes76]

58 minutes ago, VENOM said:

Yesterday was Saturday which is what I just said? You do realise the article has an edit button and has been edited since Friday right? Just read the link itself you just posted.. still shows 27M right there in the link

 

https://deadline .com/2022/10/black-adam-super-83m-first-week-eyes-27m-2nd-frame-prey-for-the-devil-previews-box-office-1235157235/

And it will make 27M.

$25M after a 7.5M Friday was a nonsense.

[Eric the IF]

Moderation

 

We're done with this "25 vs 27" argument. It's clear this conversation is going nowhere and nobody's listening to each other, so there's no point in continuing it.

[VENOM]

Absolutely nothing about that needed any kind of intervention unless you’ve never had a debate or seen one in your life. 

Edited October 30, 2022 by VENOM

[Eric the IF]

 

[Flopped]

I didnt realize halloween parties would hurt the box office this bad but maybe that means better holds next week?