Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[Joyous Legion]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

28.75 Chosen
3.2 She Said
2.7 The Menu

True Jesus miracle 

[M37]

With a ~$67M second weekend, can start to project a final DOM for BPWF with some relative confidence, based on the trajectories of Dr Strange, Ragnarok and Eternals from this point. A bit of uncertainty given this is week 2 rather than week 3 for the others (plus the whole post-pandemic market elephant in the room) but generally:

• $450M seems fairly locked 😏
• $455-$470M - possible range if shallows the others, esp over the next week
• $470-$485M - most likely outcome IMO (tracking closest to Strange)
• $485M-$499M - attainable, if it holds above average over next 3 weeks
• Clearing $500M is still plausible, but only if it has better legs than Ragnarok from this point

[CJohn]

Thanksgiving should help a lot next week so I think 475M are achievable.

[Eric Twister]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

She Said is obviously 3.2

Who said it's obviously 3.2?

[Joyous Legion]

Just now, Eric Killmonger said:

Who said it's obviously 3.2?

Yes she did

[Eric Twister]

 

[filmlover]

The Inspection is looking like a nonstarter. Expected, I suppose.

[Krissykins]

Love seeing Smile comfortably over $100m. 

[Valonqar]

15 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Love seeing Smile comfortably over $100m. 

Asbolute beast and the biggest story that came out of September where there were movies more hyped than it (Darling, Woman King) but fell well short. 

[Eric Twister]

 

[Valonqar]

Oscar shit flopped hard.

[Issac Newton]

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever grossed an estimated $67.3M this weekend (from 4,396 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $287.99M.#WakandaForever #BoxOffice @MarvelStudios @theblackpanther

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) November 20, 2022

[Issac Newton]

The Menu debuted with an estimated $9.0M domestically this weekend (from 3,211 locations).#TheMenuFilm #BoxOffice @searchlightpics @TheMenuFilm

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) November 20, 2022

[Issac Newton]

The Banshees of Inisherin grossed an estimated $703K this weekend (from 812 locations). Estimated total domestic gross stands at $7.17M.#BansheesMovie #TheBansheesOfInisherin #BoxOffice @searchlightpics @Banshees_Movie

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) November 20, 2022

[Issac Newton]

The Chosen Season 3: Episode 1 & 2 debuted with an estimated $8.22M domestically this weekend (from 2,027 locations).#TheChosenSeason3 #BoxOffice @fathomevents @thechosentv

— BoxOfficeReport.com (@BORReport) November 20, 2022

[Issac Newton]

Demos on She Said were 62% women, 82% over 25, 59% over 35, 46% over 45, and 29% over 55. Diversity demos were 68% Caucasian, 15% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 10% Asian and other.

 

Menu is guy-leaning at 54%, 65% between 17-34. Diversity pull was 53% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black and 15% Asian/other.

[jedijake]

Pretty good number with the soft weekday numbers. Nice comeback!

 

Thanksgiving week predictions (based on ThorRag and DS averages)

Monday: ~$8 m

Tuesday:~$11 m

Wednesday: ~$12.5 m

Thursday: ~$11 m

Friday: ~$22 m

Saturday: ~$21 m

Sunday: ~$12 m

Total: $97.5 m ($385 m)

 

Looking ahead:

12/2: $23m (+$12m weekdays)=$420 m

12/9: $14m (+$7m weekdays)=$441 m

12/16: $7 m (+$4m weekdays)=$452m

 

That's probably about 95% of its domestic. Total will be between $470-$475 m. I'll be VERY happy with that. Right between TLJ and AOU's drops.

 

[Issac Newton]

Day/Date Breakdown From Deadline Hollywood -

 

1) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Dis), 4,396 theaters, Fri $17.9M (-79%), Sat $29M, Sun $20.4M 3-day $67.3M (-63%)/Total: $288M/Wk 2

 

2.) The Menu (Sea), 3,211 theaters Fri $3.6M, Sat $3.2M, Sun $2.2M 3-day $9M/Wk 1

 

3.) The Chosen: Season 3 (Fath) 2012 theaters, Fri $3.575M, Sat $2.6M Sun $1.99M 3-day $8.2M/Wk 1

 

4.) Black Adam (WB) 3,372 (-231) theaters, Fri $1.12M (-59%), Sat $2.1M, Sun $1.26M, 3-day $4.48M (-44%), Total $156.9M/Wk 5

 

5.) Ticket to Paradise (Uni) 3,268 (-372) theaters, Fri $960K (-56%), Sat $1.4M, Sun $840K, 3 day $3.2M (-46%), Total $61.6M/Wk 5

 

6.) She Said (Uni), 2,022 theaters, Fri $840K, Sat $820K, Sun $590K 3-day $2.25M/Wk 1

 

7.) Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (Sony) 2,307 (-179) theaters, Fri $415K, Sat $885K, Sun $600K 3-day $1.9M (-41%), Total $43.1M/Wk 7

 

8.) Smile (Par) 1,569 (-702) theaters, Fri $335K, Sat $505K, Sun $310K, 3-day $1.15M (-51%)/Total $104.5M/Wk 8

 

9.) Drishyam 2 (Yash Raj) Fri $280K, Sat $435K, Sun $335K 3-day $1.05M, Wk 1

 

10.) Prey for the Devil (LG) 1,389 (-775) theaters, Fri $263K, Sat $407K, Sun $265K 3-day $935K (-52%), Total $18.3M/Wk 4

 

Total box office for the weekend: est. $102.1M (-51% from a week ago; +45% from weekend 46 a year ago, -6% from the same frame in 2019

[Issac Newton]

8 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Demos on She Said were 62% women, 82% over 25, 59% over 35, 46% over 45, and 29% over 55. Diversity demos were 68% Caucasian, 15% Latino and Hispanic, 7% Black and 10% Asian and other.

 

Menu is guy-leaning at 54%, 65% between 17-34. Diversity pull was 53% Caucasian, 20% Latino and Hispanic, 12% Black and 15% Asian/other.

— PostTrak —

 

She Said - 89% 

Menu - 78% and 53% definite recommend

[CaptNathanBrittles]

It took TOP GUN: MAVERICK 101 days to surpass BLACK PANTHER'S running total. It only took 10 days for it to surpass BP2's.