Weekend Thread (11/18-20) | Black Panther 67.3, The Menu 9, The Chosen 8.2, Black Adam 4.5, Ticket 3.2

[Ronin46]

3 minutes ago, exomassey said:

Are deadline early numbers reliable?

 

Not really that accurate but that wont stand in the way of an early meltdown or 2.

[Nikostar]

5 minutes ago, exomassey said:

Are deadline early numbers reliable?

Yes and no. They mostly get holdover wrong but openers right or pretty close.

[Eric Loves Rey]

7 minutes ago, exomassey said:

Are deadline early numbers reliable?

No lol. They're always below the actual Friday estimates. Doesn't stop people from freaking out about it though.

[CoolioD1]

which should i check out this week The Menu or Bones and All? Eric is not allowed to answer.

[Valonqar]

lol @ She Said number. Holy shit, lowest preview ever?

[Maggie]

4 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

which should i check out this week The Menu or Bones and All? Eric is not allowed to answer.

Ralph Fiennes>>>>>>>>>> Chalamet     

 

Ralph doesn't get enough credit for how sexy he is 💓

[Sophie]

Apparently The Chosen could sneak up and beat The Menu. That's unexpected because I never even saw the film listed on any schedules until like a few days ago. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Saw She Said... if it makes even just 2m, they should consider themselves lucky

 

Also saw Bones and All. Taylor Russell is beautiful and Luca knows how to do a needledrop, that's all I will say

[Pinacolada]

Yeah wait wtf happened with the Thursday week to week drops? Was it bc of Veteran's day last Friday causing more people to go to theaters than normal on last Thursday night?

Edited November 19, 2022 by Pinacolada

[TwoMisfits]

8 minutes ago, Sophie said:

Apparently The Chosen could sneak up and beat The Menu. That's unexpected because I never even saw the film listed on any schedules until like a few days ago. 

 

It's probably about 95% likely at this point b/c it's about double true Friday for the Menu...that was not unexpected based on its 2nd season performance last November and on its presales.  Its fans like to see the season premiere on the big screen, which is helpful for theater owners.

 

It's why I Heard the Bells could also surprise in 2 weeks - same Fathom type event with an even wider possible audience pull - and an actual movie...I suspect all of tonight's Chosen viewers are getting this movie's preview.  Wholesome, heartwarming, and Christmas themed without being Christ themed - could be a nice offset to Violent Night on the same weekend...

 

PS - For those who haven't seen the trailer, it's the story of how Henry Wadsworth Longfellow came to write the carol...

Edited November 19, 2022 by TwoMisfits

[Eric Loves Rey]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Saw She Said... if it makes even just 2m, they should consider themselves lucky

 

Also saw Bones and All. Taylor Russell is beautiful and Luca knows how to do a needledrop, that's all I will say

10 minutes ago, Pinacolada said:

Yeah wait wtf happened with the Thursday week to week drops? Was it bc of Veteran's day last Friday causing more people to go to theaters than normal on last Thursday night?

Yep. Veteran's Day is an off day for many, so people have freedom to see a movie on Thursday night easier.

[IronJimbo]

so what is black panther 2 looking to make overall if these predictions for this weekend are true?

[Sophie]

18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

It's probably about 95% likely at this point b/c it's about double true Friday for the Menu...that was not unexpected based on its 2nd season performance last November and on its presales.  Its fans like to see the season premiere on the big screen, which is helpful for theater owners.

 

It's why I Heard the Bells could also surprise in 2 weeks - same Fathom type event with an even wider possible audience pull - and an actual movie...I suspect all of tonight's Chosen viewers are getting this movie's preview.  Wholesome, heartwarming, and Christmas themed without being Christ themed - could be a nice offset to Violent Night on the same weekend...

 

PS - For those who haven't seen the trailer, it's the story of how Henry Wadsworth Longfellow came to write the carol...

Yeesh. I hope not. I don't 100% mind seeing the Menu lose out. But Violent Night? Idk. I'd be disappointed. 

 

Well it's not like much of anything is coming out December 9th though. 

[jedijake]

4 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

so what is black panther 2 looking to make overall if these predictions for this weekend are true?

Probably $430-$440 m if it makes under $65 mi this weekend.

[Sophie]

Yikes

 

[M37]

$17-$19M is right where BPWF should be, and has decent shot at $70M weekend if it winds up more in the 18-19 range 

 

 

[raegr]

Hey Box Office Theory!
 

It’s been a loooong loooong time but I just wanted to pop in and say hi again after a long hiatus. This community has been so much fun and I’ve really enjoyed getting to meet and know all of you guys. I know I was very young and silly and immature when I first came to this website, and I truly apologize for the silly and annoying things I did back then and how I’ve derailed threads sometimes. I’ve really grown since I was 14 and yiiikes I’m embarrassed looking back ahaha. But I just wanted to say thank you for helping me grow in my passion for film and just being such awesome community members to engage with on the forums. I have learned so much from you guys and this is one of the best little corners on the internet. I want to thank the mods for sustaining this incredible website. I also wanted to say that I hope you guys are taking great care of yourselves, and practicing self-love and compassion. These past few years have been very enlightening, sometimes challenging, and a lot of fun. I’ve really grown a lot, personally and professionally, and my passion for film has only grown. ALSO, the pandemic was crazy. No way home was awesome. I still love BvS. And no more unions (at least for now, just joking mods btw).

 

I missed you guys 😊

 

And sorry for the double post in the other thread, I meant to post it in this thread, not the other one!

[Sophie]

2.4x multiplier for Panther isn't good, but it's not as bad as what we've seen from some others, like Strange.

 

2.5-2.6x would have been on par with normal, considering that it's a November release. 

[misterpepp]

1 hour ago, Valonqar said:

lol @ She Said number. Holy shit, lowest preview ever?

 

No worries for She Said, Playmobil's $40k preview night still happened!

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

56 minutes ago, Eric Killmonger said:

 

It's good! It's just... 

 

A tough movie to discuss because there's so much to say! I could say it's a singular and loopy mix of YA + horror atmosphere. I could say very few filmmakers have such a supernatural conjuring of sensuality as Luca. I could say Mark Rylance sounds like the old man from Family Guy in it. So I will refrain from saying anything to not sound dumb!

 

I actually feel like it could do... ok when it expands. It ends on a jolt. Maybe similar to a mid-tier A24 release and hit around 10m