A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[Eric Quinn]

2 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Honestly this looks better than I expected. although I guess the fact that you listed the+Fri instead of true Fri makes the % look much more reasonable than in reality (I know that's how deadline presents them).

Yeah I really didn't want to subtract the previews because I don't have infinite time on my hands and that's how Deadline reports it anyways, so I wanted it for consistency. Even so, it still shows that barring a possible Lightyear-style implosion, which even with a 3-hour runtime feels pretty unlikely, that Avatar will gain a couple million from potential early Deadline numbers. Will still indicate the general trajectory of course, but not anything raw.

 

Really I just wanted to post this because I think it's very annoying the meltdowns that happen every single time people take Deadline's words to God, when like we should know better that Deadline's going to be imperfect and that we'll likely see a slight bump.

 

(And no, I don't care if the meltdowns boost the page count or whatever we're going on about. Frankly I don't give a single darn what the final page count is)

[Cap]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

T

H

E

 

W

A

Y

 

O

F

 

W

A

T

E

R

You know what I love most about the way of water is you can’t step in the same with water twice, the way of waters always changing it’s always flowing…

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, Cap said:

James Cameron truly bringing back the old school flair 

 

The question now is will he also bring back old school multipliers

[Cooper Legion]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

Which makes sense. Even for the best box office forecasters in the world, (i.e US), figuring out walkups is still a bitch.

It's easy when you have enough data, especially once it's midday. I have been flexing over in SK and it's also pretty easy in China. Japan likewise.

 

US fucked real time data availability is what makes it tough but I'm confident if we picked any data nerd from the tracking thread and gave them the same data deadline has at the time they give their number they would smoke them on accuracy without trying very hard.

[Nero]

5 minutes ago, MrPink said:

What....happened

Just the usual on BOT 😂

[BadOlCatSylvester]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

T

H

E

 

W

A

Y

 

O

F

 

W

A

T

E

R

The White of Waltuh^TM

[MrPink]

Just now, Cap said:

You know what I love most about the way of water is you can’t step in the same with water twice, the way of waters always changing it’s always flowing…

 

Don't talk to me junior, i've got 5 years on you

 

Spoiler

please don't ban me

 

[JustLurking]

10 minutes ago, M37 said:

The consistent theme there is they tend to underestimate the walk-up heavier films, and over-estimate the pre-sale heavy ones. We know from Thursday that Avatar is more the latter, so their early Fri projection will be on target or too high, not likely too low 

All the cbms on that list (which is, all cbms from this year other than morbius pretty much) were underestimated rather than over, so I don't see where they overestimated pre-sale heavy films at all, this year anyways. Except Thor, I guess, and even that was barely.

Edited December 16, 2022 by JustLurking

[ZattMurdock]

Just now, MrPink said:

 

Don't talk to me junior, i've got 5 years on you

 

  Hide contents

please don't ban me

 

Nah. @Capis amazing and has always been amazing. She talks, I shut the fuck up. Because you know, respect.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Don't talk to me junior, i've got 5 years on you

 

  Hide contents

please don't ban me

 

[Cap]

1 minute ago, MrPink said:

 

Don't talk to me junior, i've got 5 years on you

 

  Reveal hidden contents

please don't ban me

 

But it’s not a Weekend Thread Party without a MrPink thread ban!

 

 

[That One Girl]

just want to say that i greatly appreciate any and all posts pre-emptively declaring the movie a flop so i can screenshot all of them and revisit them in 3-4 weeks.

[Cooper Legion]

I don't really see a consistent pattern except what we already knew -- deadline consistently low balls for spin reasons (or expectation management, more generously) so the only films that underperform the early num are the ones that really tank.

[MovieMan89]

I still don’t know why on earth anyone would rule out a Cameron film performing like a Cameron film (i.e. crazy multis everywhere)? Those early Twitter critic reactions/tracking tricked me into thinking this could behave more like a typical big sequel opening and then have the Cameron multi too, but the reality may be more of a typical Cameron opening/typical Cameron multi. In which case it would still be massive. 
 

Early audience reception online certainly looks positive to me. I just think it will be hilarious if everyone melts down about a Cameron film over an OW, when anyone should know not to end judgment there with him. 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

just want to say that i greatly appreciate any and all posts pre-emptively declaring the movie a flop so i can screenshot all of them and revisit them in 3-4 weeks.

Why are you planning to revisit those statements after it's been proven to be a flop 

[TwoMisfits]

10 minutes ago, MrPink said:

What....happened

 

We hit the bingo card for heartfelt apologies that bring Christmas cheer.  A true December weekend thread...

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, That One Guy said:

just want to say that i greatly appreciate any and all posts pre-emptively declaring the movie a flop so i can screenshot all of them and revisit them in 3-4 weeks.

It’s gasping and flopping so hard that JC shoulda used his CGI magic to turn Sam Worthington into a 6 foot fish instead of a Na’vi….

 

How was that?

[MrPink]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

I don't feel so good

 

[JustLurking]

Just now, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It’s gasping and flopping so hard that JC shoulda used his CGI magic to turn Sam Worthington into a 6 foot fish instead of a Na’vi….

 

How was that?

Is that your fetish?

[cookie]

1 minute ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

It’s gasping and flopping so hard that JC shoulda used his CGI magic to turn Sam Worthington into a 6 foot fish instead of a Na’vi….

 

How was that?

Avatar: The Shape of Water