A2 WEEKEND THREAD | 134.1M DOM OW | Thurs 17m / Fri 36m / Sat 45m / Sun 36m

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

The 1 hr longer thing could hurt weekdays, but doesn’t seem to be doing so in OS markets so far. What does being SW have to do with it

Well SW is SW, arguably the biggest franchise in the US, along with Marvel.

Its a fanboy driven film where AVATAR isnt really.

Edited December 19, 2022 by stuart360

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

I'd take 18mil to be honest. Next weeks weekdays are going to be higher

I just worry about the films length holding back daily numbers a touch, when doing comparisons against other films.

 

Length is a concern of mine this week also but I also recognize that if numbers are too poor during the week, the weekend/holidays won't be able to make up enough to "save" the legs (O/U 4x).

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Length is a concern of mine this week also but I also recognize that if numbers are too poor during the week, the weekend/holidays won't be able to make up enough to "save" the legs (O/U 4x).

I orig had 70mil for the first weeks weekdays, and i still think it can hit that.

[JustLurking]

Weekday in SK seems solid enough. If trend looks the same here as that, would be the equivalent of doing solid very spread out business as people keep preordering ahead for good seats on best screens. Never has a crazy fantastic day but just does solid consistently is what I'd expect. Japan weekday also looks ok for the number it opened to (though said number was poor).

[Deep Wang]

3 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

Length is a concern of mine this week also but I also recognize that if numbers are too poor during the week, the weekend/holidays won't be able to make up enough to "save" the legs (O/U 4x).

 

[JimiQ]

Avatar will be weaker in basic weekdays than R1 and stronger in weekend/holidays (due to length).

So 17-17-15-17 is what we should expect this week. Stronger thursday than R1 because school’s out.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I orig had 70mil for the first weeks weekdays, and i still think it can hit that.

 

We can forget about $600M if it doesn't and even $550M may be difficult. I'd feel more confident in its legs with $75M+ weekdays. 

[Cooper Legion]

9 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well SW is SW, arguably the biggest franchise in the US, along with Marvel.

Its a fanboy driven film where AVATAR isnt really.

Okay, but the upshot of the argument your making is that RO should be less leg/more frontloaded/steeper drops, which makes a hypothetical 50% drop for A2… worse. It backs up my point. Maybe that’s your intention, but if so I am misreading — it seems like you’re trying to imply the exact opposite of the actual takeaway.

Edited December 19, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Cooper Legion]

12 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Well SW is SW, arguably the biggest franchise in the US, along with Marvel.

Its a fanboy driven film where AVATAR isnt really.

Also we should note that Avatar was quite presale heavy and basically played in the CBM range both in terms of day 1 to d-1 trajectory and internal multi. I realize there is a huge prior on “obviously this is a film that casual GA will just walk up to” but that is not remotely what we’ve actually seen happen (so far).

Edited December 19, 2022 by Korra Legion

[Menor the Destroyer]

Length may hold it back but PLF spillover should also help weekdays in theory. 

[Cooper Legion]

7 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Weekday in SK seems solid enough. If trend looks the same here as that, would be the equivalent of doing solid very spread out business as people keep preordering ahead for good seats on best screens. Never has a crazy fantastic day but just does solid consistently is what I'd expect. Japan weekday also looks ok for the number it opened to (though said number was poor).

It’s going to be tough to compare since there’s a good chunk of school of this week US but iirc it’s a pretty normal schoolday week still in SK.

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, XXR Tulkun Rider said:

 

We can forget about $600M if it doesn't and even $550M may be difficult. I'd feel more confident in its legs with $75M+ weekdays. 

Well i'm still thinking 100-120mil weekdays next week.

I still feel that a lot of people are waiting for Christmas week to watch this, partly due to how many people seem to want to watchit on the best screens.

I feel the legs are going to be a lot longer than a SW or Marvel film, which is the films people seem to want to compare this run to.

 

[stuart360]

6 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

Okay, but the upshot of the argument your making is that RO should be less leg/more frontloaded/steeper drops, which makes a hypothetical 50% drop for A2… worse. It backs up my point. Maybe that’s your intention, but if so I am misreading — it seems like you’re trying to imply the exact opposite of the actual takeaway.

I'm just saying that i expect R1 to have better daily's for the first couple of weeks or so due to it being a SW film with more upfront dremand. Adter a couple of weeks or so i expect A2 to hold better dailys over R1, and longer legs.

Whether people want to admit it or not, A2 being 1 hour longer than R1, and R1 being a SW film, its going to skew daily's in R1's favout for a while.

[Tokugennumataka]

Under 17M wud be a panic situation. 17-18M is within expectations. 18-19 would be fantastic and 19-20 would be gobsmacking good imo.

[Cooper Legion]

30 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Length may hold it back but PLF spillover should also help weekdays in theory. 

Indeed. And it’s not like this is totally uncharted territory for us either:

Look at Batman. Very long, plf skewing, no final week explosion, ~8x (7.4 from true th) IM. Weekday heavy.

Look at NTTD. Very long, weak final week, ~8 (8.8) IM. Weekday heavy.

Look at Dune. Long, extremely plf skewing, weak final week, 8x IM. Weekday heavy.

 

These were some of the best performing comps iirc ( @Porthos may be able to comment here as well).

Edited December 19, 2022 by Korra Legion

[MrPink]

8 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

Length may hold it back but PLF spillover should also help weekdays in theory. 

 

Yeah this is what I've been thinking,  but I'm not entirely sure who wins out in this battle. Will be really interesting to see today's number

[ZattMurdock]

17 minutes ago, JimiQ said:

Avatar will be weaker in basic weekdays than R1 and stronger in weekend/holidays (due to length).

So 17-17-15-17 is what we should expect this week. Stronger thursday than R1 because school’s out.

Yeah something like this.

[GipJo]

Legs or not, isn't it that the audience numbers movies pulled in the end matter? I see Avatar 2 pulls similar numbers like R1, but will inflation it for sure will have bigger box office numbers.

Edited December 19, 2022 by GipJo

[JustLurking]

13 minutes ago, Korra Legion said:

It’s going to be tough to compare since there’s a good chunk of school of this week US but iirc it’s a pretty normal schoolday week still in SK.

Ah shoot, some schools are out this early in the US?

[Andreas]

3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

Seems like 36M SUN.