Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, XXR It's 2 Damn Cold Out said:

 

This is the new goalpost now huh? Looks like 4th to me but lets see what happens....

 

Top 5 Films - DOM - China - Japan

• Avatar = $1,701,652,002
• Endgame = $1,254,723,898
• Titanic = $1,195,893,752
• SM: NWH = $1,066,994,430
• Infinity War = $976,119,471 

 

No new goalpost, DOM is going to be just fine watch

[PenguinHyphy]

The "bleak" excuse is not working for the purported "prestige" projects because there is nothing bleak about the marketing for The Fabelmans, Amsterdam or Babylon. They were either marketed as a frivolous comedy or a soft domestic drama similar to Terms of Endearment in the case of The Fabelmans. They just do not appear to be entertaining, and honestly, they appear to be nothing new or unique. There is no doubt that this is the worst Oscar season in terms of quality. The "prestige" projects are barely outgrossing Judas and the Black Messiah theatrically, and that came out on HBO Max with no New York or Los Angeles theaters open, theater capacity being a thing still and a vaccine not being commercially available. That is fucking pitiful, and there is no way to spin that. The problem is the movies that they are putting out. They really have to begin putting out intriguing projects again, not ones about show business or the majestic nature of theaters or whatever other nonsense. No one wants to see that shit. Amsterdam, Babylon, Empire of the Light and The Fabelmans all are about that in some sense or another                                          

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[JustLurking]

18 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

my expectations were above the first film though, if you're going off "lightning in a bottle" it's nothing to do with my expectations.

Unless you're talking about US, China or Japan I heavily disagree with this.

 

It's going to be #2 worldwide (of all time) behind Avatar if you get rid of those 3 regions

I get your point but you can't just remove all regions where the film underperforms to fit your narrative better. Yeah, the film is pushing really strong numbers sans US/UK and Japan (we can excuse China given the situation), but those markets are still there like it or not. Unfortunately for A2 those are also the biggest markets in the world.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

 

Holy shit it's not even gonna make $5M this weekend 

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

I get your point but you can't just remove all regions where the film underperforms to fit your narrative better. Yeah, the film is pushing really strong numbers sans US/UK and Japan (we can excuse China given the situation), but those markets are still there like it or not. Unfortunately for A2 those are also the biggest markets in the world.

Domestic has yet to start, UK is picking up speed. It's just Japan/China. China is covid dude is it really about narratives, you could say that it's lighnting a bottle it made any money right now if you wanted.

Japan... who knows what's going on there

[Dragoncaine]

5 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The "bleak" excuse is not working for the purported "prestige" projects because there is nothing bleak about the marketing for The Fabelmans, Amsterdam or Babylon. They were either marketed as a frivolous comedy or a soft domestic drama similar to Terms of Endearment in the case of The Fabelmans. They just do not appear to be entertaining, and honestly, they appear to be nothing new or unique. There is no doubt that this is the worst Oscar season in terms of quality. The "prestige" projects are barely outgrossing Judas and the Black Messiah theatrically, and that came out on HBO Max with no New York or Los Angeles theaters open, theater capacity being a thing still and a vaccine not being commercially available. That is fucking pitiful, and there is no way to spin that. The problem is the movies that they are putting out. They really have to begin putting out intriguing projects again, not ones about show business or the majestic nature of theaters or whatever other nonsense. No one wants to see that shit. Amsterdam, Babylon, Empire of the Light and The Fabelmans all are about that in some sense or another                                          

You're calling a lineup with Avatar, Top Gun, Everything Everywhere, Banshees, and Tar the worst ever? Do you remember 2018? Bohemian Rhapsody, Vice, and Green Book all top contenders over A Star is Born, The Favourite, BlackKklansman, etc.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Dragoncaine

[stuart360]

24 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

It’s massively missing the expectations you guys had for OS, come on now

Eh?, My full run prediction was always 2.5bil WW, and that was when i thought China was going to be doing 600-800mil, and not the 150mil its probably going to do because of covid.

 

If A2 makes 2bil WW (and it def has a realistic shot), you could actually argue that the film made slightly more than my 2.5bil predicition ,when taking China into account.

 

I DID say i wouldnt be surprised if it hit 3bil+, but that wasnt my actual prediction.

[Eric Lasagna]

I just finished my annual Christmas message and I hope everybody here takes time out of their day to read it. As always, I love all you silly goobers and I can't wait to experience the joys and terrors of 2023 with all of you.

 

 

[JWR]

13 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Really heartbreaking to see this slump in movie attendance again when the first half of the year was so promising. 

 

Hoping next year is better. 

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

1 hour ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

What a wet fart of a capper for what has otherwise been a terrific year for the studio. I'm genuinely curious why this year in particular has been so savage and brutal towards serious/prestige filmmaking. General audiences being tired of murkiness in film when they're getting plenty of it in the news already?

• Downer/lengthy movies with vague premises or titles being rejected on a theatrical level if they're unknown quantities. Counter, there's probably been too much Whitney content (via documentaries and TV movies) since 2012 to make I Wanna Dance With Somebody seem special.
• The often months-long festival hype/limited release/expansion cycle of awards movies, combined with the decline in traditional advertising, leads to audience confusion about when a prestige movie is actually playing in their market.
• The particular slice of the audience that propped up prestige releases pre-2020 got used to watching content like that via streaming/PVOD. I think that audience differs a bit from the "older" people who did show up for Top Gun: Maverick or Elvis, for example.
• Prestige box office used to leg out due to stragglers who heard about an acclaimed title, eventually, which worked when these movies had enough juice to hang in hundreds of theaters for months. This fall’s awards movies have crashed and burned at the box office in 3-4 weeks and are on PVOD pretty quickly. The vicious cycle leads to prestige audiences giving up on seeking out these titles in theaters.

 

Tough times for the specialty market!

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2022 by BoxOfficeFangrl

[Firepower]

I love Margot, but she's not a real movie star, almost everything she does flops and those few successes had bigger draws in lead roles, so she had nothing to do with them either. Tom Cruise is truly the last movie star, even The Rock's shine finally died and with DiCaprio I'm not sure because his recent projects are very much direct-to-streaming, even with their huge budgets.

Edited December 24, 2022 by Firepower

[StreamBO]

17 minutes ago, PenguinHyphy said:

The "bleak" excuse is not working for the purported "prestige" projects because there is nothing bleak about the marketing for The Fabelmans, Amsterdam or Babylon. They were either marketed as a frivolous comedy or a soft domestic drama similar to Terms of Endearment in the case of The Fabelmans. They just do not appear to be entertaining, and honestly, they appear to be nothing new or unique. There is no doubt that this is the worst Oscar season in terms of quality. The "prestige" projects are barely outgrossing Judas and the Black Messiah theatrically, and that came out on HBO Max with no New York or Los Angeles theaters open, theater capacity being a thing still and a vaccine not being commercially available. That is fucking pitiful, and there is no way to spin that. The problem is the movies that they are putting out. They really have to begin putting out intriguing projects again, not ones about show business or the majestic nature of theaters or whatever other nonsense. No one wants to see that shit. Amsterdam, Babylon, Empire of the Light and The Fabelmans all are about that in some sense or another                                          

The answer to that won't even say it for fear of strawmanning and getting banned. 

[StreamBO]

Just take a look at how (one of) THE BEST MOVIE OF 2022 performed

Edited December 24, 2022 by StreamBO

[StreamBO]

9 minutes ago, Firepower said:

I love Margot, but she's not a real movie star, almost everything she does flops and those few successes had bigger draws in lead roles, so she had nothing to do with them either. Tom Cruise is truly the last movie star, even The Rock's shine finally died and with DiCaprio I'm not sure because his recent projects are very much direct-to-streaming, even with their huge budgets.

The Movie Star era IS GONE. IPs draw people not stars, twitter and instagram fame does not translate to Box Office if it was that every Timothe Chalamet movie would make money. 

Edited December 24, 2022 by StreamBO

[filmlover]

I Wanna Dance with Somebody definitely feels like it was a victim of "wrong movie at the wrong time" because a Whitney biopic on paper should have been a big deal but nothing about this was ever able to move the needle (likely in large part, as @BoxOfficeFangrl said, too much Whitney content in the mere decade since her death). Honestly, if they wanted to give audiences a reason to celebrate her music on the big screen, it might've been better to create a jukebox musical in the vein of Mamma Mia! than asking the audience that remembers watching her ascension from one of the biggest musicians ever to a collapse where she became a punchline whose depressing decline unfolded in front of the entire world to relive it all over again so soon.

 

This reminds me that there's still biopics for Michael Jackson (if folks are thinking this Whitney movie is sanitized, wait till they get a load of that if it's made) and Amy Winehouse in development. Good luck to them if they ever escape development hell, I say.

Edited December 24, 2022 by filmlover

[Issac Newton]

A CinemaScore for I Wanna Dance With Somebody

 

[Cap]

Judy stopping me from responding back to all of you. 
 

 

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

The Movie Star era IS GONE. IPs draw people not stars, twitter and instagram fame does not translate to Box Office if it was that every Timothe Chalamet movie would make money. 

Whew boy now you’re really getting banned