Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Puss in Boots flopping isn't really that surprising. The pandemic conditioning families into just waiting for the digital release, combined with inflation and the general dormancy of the Shrek brand makes for a very toxic cocktail. Shrek 5 is most definitely not happening anymore, which might not be a bad thing.

 

I wonder if these animation houses might start adding some hot sauce to their projects and trying to appeal to older audiences, because families are done with theaters. Plain and simple. The Marvel demographic is still very much interested though. Sonic 3, considering its source material, might benefit greatly from this.

[Issac Newton]

$100M IMAX !! By Tue/Wed

 

 

[eddyxx]

Why is this listed as a 4 day weekend when Christmas is on Sunday? I thought that only happened when the holiday was Monday like Memorial Day or Thursday like with Thanksgiving?

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

1) Do the actuals make headlines?  

2) Do regular people pay attention to those headlines when they saw the headlines about the opening weekend the day before?

When the difference is big enough like 10M, i usually see all the big outlets talking about it, yes

 

And with social media these days talking endlessly about numbers, it's enough to make a good impression 

[filmlover]

9 minutes ago, vafrow said:

 

Even if it holds decently, it's not going to turn it around to a significant degree.

 

This was well poised for a strong performance. It's the only animated hit on the market, and the big budget spectacular is not a good option for families with young children like No Way Home was. 

 

If it gets the Sing 2 legs, an $80M domestic could be in store due to the lack of competition, but, getting anything beyond that seems unlikely.

 

I feel like going lower though is probably more likely.

 

What's most bizarre is that this film seems well liked by audiences and critics that do see it. What type of performance would it have had if it got mediocre reviews.

 

 

I mean, it's a kid-target sequel to a movie from 11 years ago (which itself was a spin-off of a franchise that many felt had run its course by the time the final movie came out) that wasn't considered a classic that could maintain audience interest so many years later ala Toy Story (not to mention the tricky nature of kid franchises - the 10 year olds today weren't alive when the first came out, while the 11 year olds who saw it then are now 22). Plus DreamWorks is no longer as powerful as they were when the  previous came out (the only way they're ever getting it back is if they make either another Shrek or Madagascar) and not even the top animation house for its studio (hello, Illumination). All things considered, it always felt like hitting $100M for this would've been a minor win even if it had stayed in its original September slot.

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Just now, eddyxx said:

Why is this listed as a 4 day weekend when Christmas is on Sunday? I thought that only happened when the holiday was Monday like Memorial Day or Thursday like with Thanksgiving?

 

Christmas being on Sunday means most companies will give their employees Monday off, and of course school is still out.

[Deep Wang]

Just now, eddyxx said:

Why is this listed as a 4 day weekend when Christmas is on Sunday? I thought that only happened when the holiday was Monday like Memorial Day or Thursday like with Thanksgiving?

 

Since the holiday is on a weekend where people already have it off, Monday is a holiday.

[M37]

12 minutes ago, CJohn said:

I don't see a path for 100M even if it has great legs like Sing 2. I am expecting a 90-95M DOM total.

I think that's too low. Late school ending date, pre-holiday events and shopping, plus cold weather dipping down all the way to the South all helping to keep numbers down

 

I'm still (optimistically?) thinking we a see a similar run as Jumanji WTJ, which grossed $89M in its first full week (against TLJ) from Wed opening (12/20-26), then saw every day from 12/25 through 12/30 beat its opening Sat (12/23 $14.8M), and went to finish up over $400M (4.55x OWeek). A $30M first week for PiB and 4x would be ~$120M, but let's see if/how much it jumps up over this next week

Edited December 25, 2022 by M37

[ThomasNicole]

5 minutes ago, Issac Newton said:

Avatar: The Way Of Water Update 

 

Disney Rivals believe that a great day is in store and that it could go to around $63M for the 3-day and $95M for 4-day.

If 3-day ended up being 63M, 4-day will be more like 98M 

[Nikostar]

 I not sure why some of you are so shocked at Puss In Boots. The original came out in 2011 and only did 149 million. Who asked for a sequel? 

[Eric Prime]

1 minute ago, Ipickthiswhiterose said:

Even with the still limited expansion, are we anywhere near the phrase "The Fablemans has been rejected by audiences" yet? Or at least "The wide audience simply wasn't interested in the premise underpinning The Fablemans"?

 

$40m price tag.

 

 

That was sadly the case from day 1. Audiences don’t like movies that aren’t nostalgic toy commercials. This is nostalgic, but not a toy commercial

[Alex SciChannel]

4 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Puss in Boots flopping isn't really that surprising. The pandemic conditioning families into just waiting for the digital release, combined with inflation and the general dormancy of the Shrek brand makes for a very toxic cocktail. Shrek 5 is most definitely not happening anymore, which might not be a bad thing.

 

I wonder if these animation houses might start adding some hot sauce to their projects and trying to appeal to older audiences, because families are done with theaters. Plain and simple. The Marvel demographic is still very much interested though. Sonic 3, considering its source material, might benefit greatly from this.

I would wait til its run is over before playing any violins. 

 

Puss in Boots 2 was very appealing to older audiences with some horror-esque elements involving the villain of the wolf.

 

Also Minions 2. If Minions 2 made so much money in theaters then Puss should be able to make at least a comfortable amount.

[fmpro]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Puss in Boots flopping isn't really that surprising. The pandemic conditioning families into just waiting for the digital release, combined with inflation and the general dormancy of the Shrek brand makes for a very toxic cocktail. Shrek 5 is most definitely not happening anymore, which might not be a bad thing.

 

I wonder if these animation houses might start adding some hot sauce to their projects and trying to appeal to older audiences, because families are done with theaters. Plain and simple. The Marvel demographic is still very much interested though. Sonic 3, considering its source material, might benefit greatly from this.

Agree. But i think next weekend will increase and we could get close to 100 mill in the end DOM. With a 80-90 mill budget this will be fine and make some money.

But yes.. Covid,streaming and inflation destroyed this family marked for studios

[BadOlCatSylvester]

I think it's time to accept that the Gentleminions trend, no matter how much people here try to downplay it, saved Minions 2. It still remains the only new age animated movie to come anywhere close to the old age ones. Without the TikTok army it would've fizzled out at around $400M, maybe $500M worldwide.

 

At this rate the Mario movie might not perform all that much better than Detective Pikachu.

[CaptNathanBrittles]

51 minutes ago, Noctis said:

Those numbers for Puss in Boots are shockingly terrible. What the actual fuck - it hasn't even hit $10m in 3 days!

 

They shouldn't have waited 11 years.

[Alex SciChannel]

Day estimates for Puss in Boots: The Last Wish through Christmas day

 

Date	Rank	Gross	% Change	Theaters	Per Theater	Total Gross	Days
Dec 21, 2022	2	$3,200,250		4,093	$782	$3,200,250	1
Dec 22, 2022	2	$2,902,605	-9%	4,093	$709	$6,102,855	2
Dec 23, 2022	2	$3,810,000	+31%	4,099	$929	$9,912,855	3
Dec 24, 2022	-	$2,800,000	-27%	4,099	$683	$12,712,855	4
Dec 25, 2022	-	$4,740,000	+69%	4,099	$1,156	$17,452,855	5

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

I think it's time to accept that the Gentleminions trend, no matter how much people here try to downplay it, saved Minions 2. It still remains the only new age animated movie to come anywhere close to the old age ones. Without the TikTok army it would've fizzled out at around $400M, maybe $500M worldwide.

 

At this rate the Mario movie might not perform all that much better than Detective Pikachu.

But there's also the fact that Despicable Me/Minions is a much more relevant brand to today's kids and teens than Puss in Boots/Shrek are, memes aside. In fact it was barely even a franchise (the first movie had become a surprise smash hit the year before) when the last Puss in Boots arrived in 2011.

[Alex SciChannel]

Day estimates for Avatar over the weekend.

Dec 23, 2022	1	$19,500,000	+33%	-63%	4,202	$4,641	$217,181,686	8
Dec 24, 2022	-	$15,000,000	-23%	-66%	4,202	$3,570	$232,181,686	9
Dec 25, 2022	-	$21,500,000	+43%	-41%	4,202	$5,117	$253,681,686	10

[Nikostar]

1 minute ago, Issac Newton said:

 

 

 

I guess WOM is kicking in.