Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I would side with those saying the DOM run is currently pretty boring overall (CD was a glimmer of excitement)… but plenty of time for it to still get interesting. January is barren and Feb has only 1 real competitor relatively late in. Even March looks more like several potential under-performers than big hits. A2 could be very leggy. 

No Doubt.. BRING ME MY NUMBERS!!!   I NEED MY NUMBERS!!"

 

.......WE ARE COMING!! (Will Cameron get his 6.3-6.7x multiplier)  Stay Tuned!!!

 

Pandorians are showing up in droves!!! ---LETS GOOOO!!!!!

 

 

Edited December 28, 2022 by Sheldon Cr
Editing post

[Legion Again]

14 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

21.7M dom and 48m OS

Where from?

 

12 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

any weekday thread?

you can make it yourself if you want

[Alex SciChannel]

15 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

21.7M dom and 48m OS

Do you have comscore access?

[AnDr3s]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Do you have comscore access?

https://www.pinkvilla.com/entertainment/box-office/avatar-the-way-of-water-soars-past-1-billion-at-worldwide-box-office-1204965

[Legion Again]

1 minute ago, AnDr3s said:

https://www.pinkvilla.com/entertainment/box-office/avatar-the-way-of-water-soars-past-1-billion-at-worldwide-box-office-1204965

Written by @charlie Jatinder. He can correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe this reflects any new info (domestically) since:

 

4 hours ago, Legion in Boots said:

Tuesday

 

dar rollins

Might get something in just a few mins though.

Edited December 28, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[Alex SciChannel]

3 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Written by @charlie Jatinder. He can correct me if I’m wrong but I don’t believe this reflects any new info (domestically) since:

 

Might get something in just a few mins though.

Crossing fingers hard

[eridani]

Is 20 to 25% off monday plausible? Or will it definitely be sub 20m?

Edited December 28, 2022 by eridani

[Gopher]

I'm old enough to remember on the Mojo boards in '09 that 1. Nobody was impressed with Avatar's numbers until its Xmas weekend hold came in, and there was derision that it briefly lost the #1 spots to Chipmunks and Sherlock, and 2. Even by New Year's when it was clear Avatar was in for a magic run domestically, the majority of the boards didn't think it was going to approach Titanic unadjusted. It was the first 'normal' weekday number going over 8 million where the top post on the thread was a wide shot from Titanic of the ship sinking.

 

A lot of members were upset about the idea of something like Avatar having more cultural ubiquity or significance than The Dark Knight, and even after Avatar's domestic run ended there were still back-and-forth calcluations about how Avatar actually sold just below Dark Knight in admissions, and obviously would never  

come close to Titanic's. 

 

We're not gonna have any idea where this will end up until weekend after next. It's clear that there are holiday megatentpoles like Force Awakens and No Way Home that functioned like genuine pop culture phenomenons, holding on through March on 'you just have to see this' word of mouth that the other Marvel and Star Wars' just didn't get the same way. It's clear it's doing really well right now and a 'normal' trajectory following the holidays would put it in the approaching 2 billion camp. But its worth reflagging that unless I'm mistaken, there's absolutely nothing taking IMAX or Dolby until... uh... Titanic...

Edited December 28, 2022 by Gopher

[Sheldon Cr]

2 hours ago, baumer said:

 

Yea, 300 mill in 13 days is so boring.  How many films have made 300 mill in 2022?  By my count, 8 including A2, and it just set the record for biggest second Monday ever.  What exactly were you expecting in order for it to not be boring.  This is anything but a boring domestic run.  It'll be the 2nd highest grossing film of the year by the end of its run.  Boring?  I don't see it that way. Maybe your expectations are out of whack.

Brother Baumerrr. Where have you been man!!

 

 

YEEEHAWW!!..Here we are again 13 yrs later and Cameron is back !

 

 

And hes brought  Jake Sully and his lineage in tow🦝. How did you like the sequel my brother? Having tons of fun on BOT and seeing alot of people eat some crow and enjoying BO phenoms this year totally upset the comic film dominance. Wow! What a.year brother.

 

That Way of Water  Naysayer under 573 club will soon bite the farm is an added  bonus

and feel Pandorians Might

 

Heh heh....Next our favorite Wingman!

" Bank Left!" ...The sully family wants both crowns 

 

"GENTLEMEN THIS IS YOUR CAPTAIN SPEAKING!"

" Tell me Maverick do you feel a little nervous!"😄😉

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

2 minutes ago, Gopher said:

I'm old enough to remember on the Mojo boards in '09 that 1. Nobody was impressed with Avatar's numbers until its Xmas weekend hold came in, and there was derision that it briefly lost the #1 spots to Chipmunks and Sherlock, and 2. Even by New Year's when it was clear Avatar was in for a magic run domestically, the majority of the boards didn't think it was going to approach Titanic unadjusted. It was the first 'normal' weekday number going over 8 million where the top post on the thread was a wide shot from Titanic of the ship sinking.

 

A lot of members were upset about the idea of something like Avatar having more cultural ubiquity or significance than The Dark Knight, and even after Avatar's domestic run ended there were still back-and-forth calcluations about how Avatar actually sold just below Dark Knight in admissions, and obviously would never  come close to Titanic's. 

 

We're not gonna have any idea where this will end up until weekend after next. It's clear that there are holiday megatentpoles like Force Awakens and No Way Home that functioned like genuine pop culture phenomenons, holding on through March on 'you just have to see this' word of mouth that the other Marvel and Star Wars' just didn't get the same way. It's clear it's doing really well right now and a 'normal' trajectory following the holidays would put it in the approaching 2 billion camp. Just worth reflagging that unless I'm mistaken there's absolutely nothing taking IMAX or Dolby until... uh... Titanic...

Kal remembers and what's scary this may be a big release for 4k Titanic 25 anniversary.  What happens if Titan puts up over a billion Ww. Could Titanic possible dethrone Avatar lol. Just food for thought.

 

Welcome brother Gopher!!

 

We will once again show Avatar brand will not go quietly in the night!!

 

HOO-RAH!!

 

THIS...THIS IS OUR LAND!!

 

[charlie Jatinder]

I think Avatar will leg out to $600M+ possibly even $650M.

 

I realise there is a chance of it pulling something special like Avatar 1 and hit like $700M+ or something but...

 

If we compare A1 and TFA, two which had same calendar setting, A1 was around 40% of TFA on 1st Monday, it went on to 62% by 2nd Monday, eventually matching it on 3rd.

 

So there were signs of great trending during holiday period as well.

 

In case of A2, it was 92% of Rogue One on 1st Monday and 101% on 2nd Monday, by 3rd Monday its expected to be around 115-120% on high end.

 

The improvement is just not close enough to A1's, so that something special is probably a bit hard.

[Alexdube]

11 minutes ago, Gopher said:

I'm old enough to remember on the Mojo boards in '09 that 1. Nobody was impressed with Avatar's numbers until its Xmas weekend hold came in, and there was derision that it briefly lost the #1 spots to Chipmunks and Sherlock, and 2. Even by New Year's when it was clear Avatar was in for a magic run domestically, the majority of the boards didn't think it was going to approach Titanic unadjusted. It was the first 'normal' weekday number going over 8 million where the top post on the thread was a wide shot from Titanic of the ship sinking.

 

A lot of members were upset about the idea of something like Avatar having more cultural ubiquity or significance than The Dark Knight, and even after Avatar's domestic run ended there were still back-and-forth calcluations about how Avatar actually sold just below Dark Knight in admissions, and obviously would never  

come close to Titanic's. 

 

We're not gonna have any idea where this will end up until weekend after next. It's clear that there are holiday megatentpoles like Force Awakens and No Way Home that functioned like genuine pop culture phenomenons, holding on through March on 'you just have to see this' word of mouth that the other Marvel and Star Wars' just didn't get the same way. It's clear it's doing really well right now and a 'normal' trajectory following the holidays would put it in the approaching 2 billion camp. But its worth reflagging that unless I'm mistaken, there's absolutely nothing taking IMAX or Dolby until... uh... Titanic...

[Legion Again]

20 minutes ago, eridani said:

Is 20 to 25% off monday plausible? Or will it definitely be sub 20m?

I mean, 20 to 25% probably ain’t happening. More like 35%. But that’s still >20M?

[stephanos13]

I think it's time to move to the new thread guys.

 

Charlie posted Avatar's number for Tuesday.

 

https://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/30911-christmas-new-year-weekdays-thread/

[Sheldon Cr]

10 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I think Avatar will leg out to $600M+ possibly even $650M.

 

I realise there is a chance of it pulling something special like Avatar 1 and hit like $700M+ or something but...

 

If we compare A1 and TFA, two which had same calendar setting, A1 was around 40% of TFA on 1st Monday, it went on to 62% by 2nd Monday, eventually matching it on 3rd.

 

So there were signs of great trending during holiday period as well.

 

In case of A2, it was 92% of Rogue One on 1st Monday and 101% on 2nd Monday, by 3rd Monday its expected to be around 115-120% on high end.

 

The improvement is just not close enough to A1's, so that something special is probably a bit hard.

That's what Cameron films do. That something

Special happens. From my crowd reactions, going beyond 700m domestic is definitely possible brother Charlie. Just wait..🦝👍

[Hatebox]

I think we can all agree the film's still waiting for its "holy shit!" day/weekend. Nothing's been spectacular or disastrous so far.

 

Incidentally, it's a huge shame they don't release admission numbers as standard. It's a fascinating data point.

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, Gopher said:

I'm old enough to remember on the Mojo boards in '09 that 1. Nobody was impressed with Avatar's numbers until its Xmas weekend hold came in, and there was derision that it briefly lost the #1 spots to Chipmunks and Sherlock, and 2. Even by New Year's when it was clear Avatar was in for a magic run domestically, the majority of the boards didn't think it was going to approach Titanic unadjusted. It was the first 'normal' weekday number going over 8 million where the top post on the thread was a wide shot from Titanic of the ship sinking.

 

A lot of members were upset about the idea of something like Avatar having more cultural ubiquity or significance than The Dark Knight, and even after Avatar's domestic run ended there were still back-and-forth calcluations about how Avatar actually sold just below Dark Knight in admissions, and obviously would never  come close to Titanic's. 

 

We're not gonna have any idea where this will end up until weekend after next. It's clear that there are holiday megatentpoles like Force Awakens and No Way Home that functioned like genuine pop culture phenomenons, holding on through March on 'you just have to see this' word of mouth that the other Marvel and Star Wars' just didn't get the same way. It's clear it's doing really well right now and a 'normal' trajectory following the holidays would put it in the approaching 2 billion camp. Just worth reflagging that unless I'm mistaken there's absolutely nothing taking IMAX or Dolby until... uh... Titanic...

 

 

I mean...the average ticket price in 2009 and even 2010 was almost entirely 2D tickets from other films. So when a movie sells 80% of its tickets in 3D, it's pretty undeniable that the admissions are nowhere close to the rough estimate provide by a site like Box Office Mojo. Avatar's overseas performance of $2+ billion was way more impressive than the domestic performance. The domestic legs were awesome of course. But the total admissions? Ehhh...80 million or less. It was a very big movie, but it was a lot closer to TDK's performance of around 70 million admissions than Titanic's performance of 125+ million admissions.

 

I think Cameron deserves credit for finding a very effective way to help offset the fact he was never gonna match the phenomenon of Titanic in terms of raw popularity in the domestic market (125+ million admissions). 12 years of ticket price inflation beyond 1997-1998 for a normal 2D ticket, plus 80% of tickets sold in 3D, plus some IMAX boost as well. Those elevated ticket prices helped push the movie well beyond Titanic's unadjusted domestic gross. Gonna be a lot harder this time around since Force Awakens benefited from the same thing with 6 years of ticket price inflation, 3D boost, IMAX boost, and other PLF boost in 2015-2016 that did not exist for Avatar's release in 2009-2010.

[Sheldon Cr]

4 minutes ago, Hatebox said:

I think we can all agree the film's still waiting for its "holy shit!" day/weekend. Nothing's been spectacular or disastrous so far.

 

Incidentally, it's a huge shame they don't release admission numbers as standard. It's a fascinating data point.

Revenue is revenue and folks choose to not go to other films and flock this sequel 13 years later. Shows how relevant it is. Not to mention all the big  films moving away from A2 release date. Not to mention this movie makes 3d relevant again and premium theaters are loving it Brother Hatebox.

You can also argue how much tickets would be sold by Titanic if had the the TCS of today in 97 lol. Likely 6billion Ww. I just can't see how ticket data Is relevant from different eras. All I know no matter how folks try to spin what ifs, there's never going to be a movie as successful as Titanic in one run. Changed the domestic and.OS bo forever 

 

Even the soundtrack was a.juggernaut. A true world phenomenon the boat was. Miss those moments in time. It's the same silliness of comparing endgame to Avatar. Obviously Avatar was way bigger being in less theaters and starting off slower but eventually being the first 2b OS grosser and domestic King.. Eg is definitely a Juggernaut but it's not Titanic or Avatar.

 

.Shoot I'm wondering how big A2 would be if no pandemic. It's already having a shot at 2.5-2.8b ww facing storms ontop of all the crazyness and still unstoppable.

Admissions another flawed way to suit  false narratives that constantly get shot down in box.office debates 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Sheldon Cr]

18 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

 

 

I mean...the average ticket price in 2009 and even 2010 was almost entirely 2D tickets from other films. So when a movie sells 80% of its tickets in 3D, it's pretty undeniable that the admissions are nowhere close to the rough estimate provide by a site like Box Office Mojo. Avatar's overseas performance of $2+ billion was way more impressive than the domestic performance. The domestic legs were awesome of course. But the total admissions? Ehhh...80 million or less. It was a very big movie, but it was a lot closer to TDK's performance of around 70 million admissions than Titanic's performance of 125+ million admissions.

 

I think Cameron deserves credit for finding a very effective way to help offset the fact he was never gonna match the phenomenon of Titanic in terms of raw popularity in the domestic market (125+ million admissions). 12 years of ticket price inflation beyond 1997-1998 for a normal 2D ticket, plus 80% of tickets sold in 3D, plus some IMAX boost as well. Those elevated ticket prices helped push the movie well beyond Titanic's unadjusted domestic gross. Gonna be a lot harder this time around since Force Awakens benefited from the same thing with 6 years of ticket price inflation, 3D boost, IMAX boost, and other PLF boost in 2015-2016 that did not exist for Avatar's release in 2009-2010.

I believe titanic sold 130m admissions?

[redfirebird2008]

Just now, Sheldon Cr said:

I believe titanic sold 130m admissions?

 

Some of that is gonna be the re-release in 2012.

 

Pretty big chunk of the original run was 1998 instead of 1997. So if you blend the prices of 1998 and 1997 together, you get an average price of $4.67 for Titanic's original run. Divide $600.8 million by $4.67 ticket price and you get 128.6 million admissions for the original run. We're never gonna see that again, at least not in the North American market. Titanic's run was just absolute insanity, lol