Christmas Weekend Thread | Avatar 95.6m, PiB 20.05m, Babylon 4.85m 4 days

[redfirebird2008]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not that we SHOULD compare it to A1 yet but if we were, theres a scenario it has a 50m+ lead over A1 through the same point with potentially only a 10m or so smaller 3rd weekend gross… 

That would be fun to watch. Way more interesting than a boring run that finishes around $500-550M. 

[Dragoncaine]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

He's talking about monday jumping only 6% to 32M. 

 

It can happen after such an explosive Sunday, i think is unlikely tho. 13-15% would be a good midpoint i believe.

 

Oh, I interpreted that post as $32m for Christmas Day, not for Monday.

[AnDr3s]

20m over estimates can be possible lol

[upriser7]

2 minutes ago, Dragoncaine said:

Oh, I interpreted that post as $32m for Christmas Day, not for Monday.

he was actually referring to Christmas Day when he said $32M...not for Monday

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, XXR Krampus Claus said:

No I’m talking about Sunday actually being up to $32M lol

It kinda happened tuesday right? 

 

The late projections are about 17M and the numbers came in at 18.3M 

 

That would be so nice but i'm not greedy i'm happy with 30 (if it comes with 20% jump tomorrow jk)

Edited December 26, 2022 by ThomasNicole

[Ozymandias]

26 minutes ago, StreamBO said:

3 BILLION WORLDWIDE BACK ON THE TABLE NEVER DOUBT JAMES CAMERON. 

 

bless your heart

[Alex SciChannel]

Puss Sunday numbers?

[XXR & Friends]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

It kinda happened tuesday right? 

 

The late projections are about 17M and the numbers came in at 18.3M 

 

That would be so nice but i'm not greedy i happy with 30 (if it comes with 20% jump tomorrow jk)

Yea I think expecting 30 should be fairly secure (but I don’t won’t people to get all annoying if it’s only 29 for some reason) but the numbers I’m looking at say that it’s at least possible to get up to 32. Samples are fickle, sometimes. 

[MikeQ]

9 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

do we have actuals for friday and sat?

whats needed for a sub 50% dro´?

67.06M for the 3-day weekend would technically represent just under a 50% drop. If the weekend actual ends up being the 64.5M (from a 30M Sunday and the Fri/Sat as estimated by the studio), then it is 2.56M off from hitting a sub-50% drop.

 

In theory, then, if the winter storm shaved off 2.56M in moviegoing from the 3-day weekend, Way of Water might have gotten there. In theory…. no idea if weather would ever have such an impact.

 

Peace,

Mike

[MovieMan89]

2 minutes ago, AnDr3s said:

20m over estimates can be possible lol

Not when it’s double the estimate it can’t.

 

Even at 30m, would this be a record for an underestimation ratio (about 50%)? It’s gotta be way way up there. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, Alex SciChannel said:

Puss Sunday numbers?

 

I remember sing going digital after 2 weeks, will the same happen with puss? I think the sub 50 million rule is still in place

[AnDr3s]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

Not when it’s double the estimate it can’t.

 

Even at 30m, would this be a record for an underestimation ratio (about 50%)? It’s gotta be way way up there. 

i mean the 4day weekend

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, MikeQ said:

67.06M for the 3-day weekend would technically represent just under a 50% drop. If the weekend actual ends up being the 64.5M (from a 30M Sunday and the Fri/Sat as estimated by the studio), then it is 2.56M off from hitting a sub-50% drop.

 

In theory, then, if the winter storm shaved off 2.56M in moviegoing from the 3-day weekend, Way of Water might have gotten there. In theory…. no idea if weather would ever have such an impact.

 

Peace,

Mike

 

Thanks

was going off about whats needed because Mr XXR was saying 32 could be possible for today, and I wanted to know if that happened how close we'd be to sub 50 and if it was possible for friday-saturday actuals to get it over the line, similar to how actuals got maverick over 90 million

[Alex SciChannel]

2 minutes ago, interiorgatordecorator said:

 

I remember sing going digital after 2 weeks, will the same happen with puss? I think the sub 50 million rule is still in place

No clue

[Poseidon]

There were many reasons to wait to see the movie after christmas. 

Snow storm, saving it as a family experience, having money/gift cards after christmas, Runtime.

 

May this be the start of at least a tiny bit of the old BO magic after all the doom and gloom that poisoned the topics for the last couple of days.

Edited December 26, 2022 by Poseidon

[Cap]

Look at all the fun I missed. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

4 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

There were many reasons to wait to see the movie after christmas. 

Snow storm, saving it as a family experience, having money/gift cards after christmas, Runtime.

 

May this be the start of at least a tiny bit of the old BO magic after all the doom and gloom that poisoned the topics for the last couple of days.

 

the fact the uncertanity lasted and is lasting this long is already pretty magical, even with regards to TGM, you were already seeing 500 million + predicts during ow, by the 2nd weekened empire had already began his 700 million is locked talk, with pretty much every other blockbuster folks can give you a pretty great estimate of where something will end up, some people already knew DS2 was barely missing a billion on sunday

Edited December 26, 2022 by interiorgatordecorator

[Cmasterclay]

Wait, the 40.8 number is a joke correct? I am trying to report it to users who aren't on the board right now and I literally cannot tell at this point.

[Sheldon Cr]

5 hours ago, stuart360 said:

They are as NWH showed, TGM showed, and A2 is currently showing.

I just feel the masses are more picky now. and will only pay for something they think deserves to be seen on the big screen.

 

puss in boots 2 is a good example, literally no reason why this couldnt of launched on Disney Plus. No reason to see it at the cinema unless i suppose you're going with the family over Christmas.

 

Who knows if this will even last though, it could get better over the coming years. We also have to remmeber that money is tight for a lot of people at the moment. It could all be different 3 or 4 years from now.

We are sending the Naysayers the message.

Hmm rem those talks about no 600m-800m domestic Brother Stewart and Jimbo

 

Lol..Not So Fast 

[XXR & Friends]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Wait, the 40.8 number is a joke correct? I am trying to report it to users who aren't on the board right now and I literally cannot tell at this point.

40.8M is Canadian Dollars so about $30M USD