Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[M37]

Some quick math:

 

With the $19.75M Thursday, Avatwo total stands just shy of $358M. If it were to out pace RO by 15% over the next week (~$92M), and then have TFA legs from there - 1.40x which is an outlier for how big December tentpoles preform in Jan/Feb - then it would add another ~$221M from this point, for an estimated final of $579M.

 

Looks like passing RO is far more likely than not (but honestly not yet assured), but there's still so much uncertainty about how it will perform/hold in the new year that any range from this point should still be like $50M/10% wide.  I'm roughly at $540-$600M

[Brainbug]

14 minutes ago, Juby said:

Avatar might go as high as $640m dom. I'm hoping for $655m

 

🙂

 

15 minutes ago, Juby said:

I'm hoping for $655m

 

[ThomasNicole]

2 hours ago, JustLurking said:

this daily went from looking bad, possibly into the 17s to a tentative near 20, -4% from wed

 

what the fuck

That's why i'm not even entering here anymore before more concrete numbers hahah 

 

This whole week, early numbers have a very wide range with a really low end, everyone keeps arguing about it just for the actual number came in the higher end or better 

 

[Andreas]

Just now, ThomasNicole said:

That's why i'm not even entering here anymore before more concrete numbers hahah 

 

This whole week, early numbers have a very wide range with a really low end, everyone keeps arguing about it just for the actual number came in the higher end or better 

 

Super early Friday estimate: $14.5M - $27M.

[ThomasNicole]

Seems like the tuesday vibes is really lasting this time around... we love to see it 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

Definitely a big miss on the comps. Surprising after such a clean Wednesday. Friday you can predict off of the weekend patterns we’ve already seen. Today will almost certainly be in the 21-23 range.

[ThomasNicole]

Another astonishing number, we're really getting great results since SUN 

 

I think 3rd weekend have an actual shot at staying flat or go higher than last weekend. Even if it just follows R1 jumps and drops (which was very uneventhful), that would be nearly 59M, which is already great. 

 

But yeah since this is having better drops and jumps on the weekends even on OW, 63-65M looking possible.

 

 

[Cooper Legion]

1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Definitely a big miss on the comps. Surprising after such a clean Wednesday. Friday you can predict off of the weekend patterns we’ve already seen. Today will almost certainly be in the 21-23 range.

Dude 

 

Spoiler

I mean there’s a decent chance but how do you “almost certainly” after just witnessing a 10% miss 😛 

 

Edited December 30, 2022 by Legion in Boots

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Definitely a big miss on the comps. Surprising after such a clean Wednesday. Friday you can predict off of the weekend patterns we’ve already seen. Today will almost certainly be in the 21-23 range.

Nah you're doing great these days, congrats

[Sophia Jane]

Biggest 3rd weekend

1 SW7 90m

2 Avatar 68m

3 BP 66m

4 AEG 63m

5 AIW 62m

6 NWH 56m

7 Avengers 55m

8 JW1 54m

9 SW8 52m

10 TGM 51m

Avatar try to beat AEG

Edited December 30, 2022 by Bruce

[SnokesLegs]

34 minutes ago, eridani said:

I find it incredible that A2 is going almost twice as well in France than it's doing in the UK. What is the reason for that? (for A1, France did 20% better than UK)

 

Are movie tickets in UK much more expensive?

(but if the above applies, then the drop in audience number would somewhat be compensated by higher earnings per ticket)

Has the standard of living really dropped that much more in UK recently?

Have the reviews really been that savage in UK, compared to France?

Or is there some other reason?

 

The answer to all of that is “yes”. The economic situation in the UK at the moment is dire, a lot of people are having to choose between heating and eating due to the spiralling cost of living. Energy bills are double what they were last year and they’re about to go up again in a few months. If there’s been a drop in ticket sales I’d bet it’s from families who can’t justify £100+ on a film for a family of 4.

 

IMAX is where it’s doing all of its business around me, and those tickets are £18.99 (£27 in London), it’s a ghost town in regular 2D/3D screens.

[Torontofan]

I dont think Avatar will drop more then 40% in the 4th weekend either. 

Should get as good legs as ANH 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, Legion in Boots said:

Dude 

 

  Hide contents

I mean there’s a decent chance but how do you “almost certainly” after just witnessing a 10% miss 😛 

 

I haven’t even looked at the PS today I’m just going off historical pattern and data instead of the comp. Using R1 comp for yesterday vs Wednesday woulda been right at 19. R1 today vs 19.5 would be 21.25 but A2 is playing slightly stronger on the weekends and since it keeps over-performing it probably juices a bit more. 

[stripe]

27 minutes ago, M37 said:

Some quick math:

 

With the $19.75M Thursday, Avatwo total stands just shy of $358M. If it were to out pace RO by 15% over the next week (~$92M), and then have TFA legs from there - 1.40x which is an outlier for how big December tentpoles preform in Jan/Feb - then it would add another ~$221M from this point, for an estimated final of $579M.

 

Looks like passing RO is far more likely than not (but honestly not yet assured), but there's still so much uncertainty about how it will perform/hold in the new year that any range from this point should still be like $50M/10% wide.  I'm roughly at $540-$600M

 

358M

+80M extended third weekend

+35M 4th weekend

+25M extended 5th weekend

+15M 6th weekend

+10M 7th weekend

+7M 8th weekend

530M without midweeks and late legs. I would say 600M is more than the ceiling for Avatar 2 at this moment

[StreamBO]

When will people on this forum understand that the era of mid size films on theaters as a standard is GONE, no matter promotion, not matter nothing, all those films (the kind of rule is) are streaming movies now, or maybe day and date, plus all superhero movies are not the same, BP2 is very different to the three MCU movies released behind it. Plus Superhero Movies are a subgenre of Action movies, the same thing Top Gun Maverick is. Top Gun Maverick is no different from the superhero genre that much, is basically a superhero (action) plot, without powers about a man that is the one that can make the mission just as superheroes, with their robins or sidekicks helping, or Tony Stark and the Other Avengers. 

 

All your opinions are basically Baseless Nostalgia, or complaining for sake of complaining. 

 

Today theartical Cinema is GO BIG (you better have the look of a 200 million dollar movie) or GO HOME (to streaming).

 

Stop screaming about OpTiOnS, Studios give theaters options all the time with midsized movies (AND FLOP even with good marketing), if you do not have action or epicness or both you are done in theaters. But some of you refuse to the TRUTH. 

[Menor the Destroyer]

15 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

Nah you're doing great these days, congrats

?

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

20 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

?

Seems like snark but I’m chill about it. Can definitely see why it’s not worth bringing numbers early though. 
 

EDIT: It wasn’t snark 😅

[Poseidon]

16 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Seems like snark but I’m chill about it. Can definitely see why it’s not worth bringing numbers early though. 

 

I think it's very well worth it, still.

 

I think your range should be upped to 21-24 for Friday with historic comps. Sherlock Holmes jumped 20,5% in 2011. King Kong even jumped 24% in 2005. So those numbers wouldn't be uncommon.

It remains to be seen if the early comparable run to R0 was just an artifact due to weather. The last couple of days seem to point to that conclusion.

Edited December 30, 2022 by Poseidon

[ThomasNicole]

13 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

?

 

6 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Seems like snark but I’m chill about it. Can definitely see why it’s not worth bringing numbers early though. 

But i'm being serious.

 

You just started doing this (from what i'm seeing) and you're doing very good. I don't think anyone expect exact numbers from early lookings, but it's been consistently overall. I personally avoid because the arguing has been stressful to me, not the numbers.

 

It was a sincere congrats for your work. Sorry if it doesn't look like, english is not my first language.

[stuart360]

36 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Definitely a big miss on the comps. Surprising after such a clean Wednesday. Friday you can predict off of the weekend patterns we’ve already seen. Today will almost certainly be in the 21-23 range.

You have been very close some days, and we all aprreciate you taking the time to do them.

I'm sure we would rather have a slightly off number than no number at all.