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charlie Jatinder

Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

By charlie Jatinder, in Numbers and Data

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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:


The earliest comp pointed to 16.3 and while we knew it would increase, my head was at 17-17.5 when I posted that gif. In the end, the comp broke down due to regional chain underperformance and Canada over-performance. Hopefully today is better for it.


Piggybacking on this, I won’t even tell you what the first comp of today points to vs the same time yesterday 😅

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The Dark Alfred Summer Tentpole

The Dark Alfred

Posted
Posted (edited)

 

That is a terrific day for A2. The water flow (average gain over 7 days) indicates A2 to beat RO with a nice margin, now. A2 dropped only 3% and up 37% from last week whereas RO decreased 7% and stayed flat from its previous week. A2 should further eat into the deficit this weekend.

 

WATERSO SHOWDOWN  - AVATAR 2 VS ROGUE ONE

 

DAY 14: (THURSDAY) AVATAR 20m

DAY 14: (THURSDAY) ROGUE ONE 16.7m

 

WATER TEMP: WARM (+3.3m)

CUME: AVATAR 358m  VS ROGUE ONE 375.4m

 

SEA LEVEL: MINUS 195.5m

WATER FLOW:  575m

Edited by The Dark Alfred
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Ronin46 Box Office Gold

Ronin46

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Definitely a big miss on the comps. Surprising after such a clean Wednesday. Friday you can predict off of the weekend patterns we’ve already seen. Today will almost certainly be in the 21-23 range.

 

What is your guess for the total by end of weekend 4 (Jan 😎 480?

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Borobudur Box Office Gold

Borobudur

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:


The earliest comp pointed to 16.3 and while we knew it would increase, my head was at 17-17.5 when I posted that gif. In the end, the comp broke down due to regional chain underperformance and Canada over-performance. Hopefully today is better for it.

Which region you are tracking? They hate Avatar that much for you to go that low?

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CJohn Cinematic Universe

CJohn

Posted
Posted

I was looking at old box office numbers in Portugal and realized King Arthur: Legend of the Sword opened higher than Han Solo here. We are so fucking cool sometimes. Just love the randomness of it all.

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Menor Reborn said:

With a very big FOR FUN caveat:

 

 

26m (+30%)

 

not a projection of any sort, just a comp from the same chain vs the same time yesterday, since you asked

Damn, yeah that's way too high for me to take seriously but that's some crazy underperformance for yesterday then

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XXRDJisDoctorDoom Global Phenomenon

XXRDJisDoctorDoom

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, JustLurking said:

Damn, yeah that's way too high for me to take seriously but that's some crazy underperformance for yesterday then


The chain will likely perform more on par with the rest of the market today. If we look at Thursday as an outlier and go back to Wednesday (which was nearly perfect vs last Wednesday) then it spits out 22.9 for the first comp today which is a much more expected number.

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Poseidon Box Office Gold

Poseidon

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Menor Reborn said:

With a very big FOR FUN caveat:

 

 

26m (+30%)

 

not a projection of any sort, just a comp from the same chain vs the same time yesterday, since you asked

 

Do you live in the area you track? Was there any weather effect, big happening or sports game or someting that could explain the underperformance?

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JustLurking Box Office Gold

JustLurking

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:


The chain will likely perform more on par with the rest of the market today. If we look at Thursday as an outlier and go back to Wednesday (which was nearly perfect vs last Wednesday) then it spits out 22.9 for the first comp today which is a much more expected number.

Yeah that makes sense, personally hoping for 23 since slightly better trend than RO (which doesn't seem too hard since it has out trended it basically every day this week) would take it flat.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

Damn, yeah that's way too high for me to take seriously but that's some crazy underperformance for yesterday then

Keep in mind that this is just presales. It's quite possible that nationwide PS is also up a good bit but that ratio could decrease during the day as well. 

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M37 Box Office Gold

M37

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, Poseidon said:

 

Do you live in the area you track? Was there any weather effect, big happening or sports game or someting that could explain the underperformance?

Cowboys played Thursday night football 

 

Anecdotally, sales in my local market are looking kinda … soft* for today? 1st IMAX show had like 50 people vs easily >120 yesterday. Other Florida markets looking about the same as last couple of days though 

*Probably just holiday families & tourists starting to go back home, but though it was curious 

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