Christmas-New Year Weekdays Thread || Avatar $20.1M THU - Top 10 DOM or Bust!

[M37]

Ran a few numbers this morning, and I honestly can’t see a realistic path for Avatwo to reach $600M DOM, without some sudden sharp increases/breakaway from RO 

 

At present, my range is $510-$570M, with a good outcome something like ~$405M by Sunday, ~$440M by next Thursday, and adding another $110-$120M after that (70-75% of TFA). More likely it falls short of $550, finishing not very far from RO in the end 

[THUNDER BIRD]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

24

Hoping for a 26-26.5

[charlie Jatinder]

3 minutes ago, M37 said:

Ran a few numbers this morning, and I honestly can’t see a realistic path for Avatwo to reach $600M DOM.

[M37]

21 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

6.75M

hmm. this seems bit excessive. wonder if some error in system. let's see if it changes.

 

I’m liking the Jumanji WTJ comp more every day. That figure - if it holds - would mean a ~$32M first 7 days, probably $130M, shot at $150M plus (JWTJ only dropped 10% from Mon Xmas to Tue, and made over 4.5x it’s first full week)

[Factcheck]

20 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Disney is probably demanding 60-70% of the domestic revenue, based on their track record with big sequels in the past. $580M x 65% delivers a domestic net revenue of $377M for Disney. 

Nope they don't get that much, max they can get 55% cut in case of A2.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

 

I’m liking the Jumanji WTJ comp more every day. That figure - if it holds - would mean a ~$32M first 7 days, probably $130M, shot at $150M plus (JWTJ only dropped 10% from Mon Xmas to Tue, and made over 4.5x it’s first full week)

So will will be getting an Avatar-esque run this year after all 😅

[Borobudur]

Actually just how high A2 need to do daily to impress? I saw UK delivered some great Tuesday number but domestic still haven't posted a single impressive number thus far into the run. 

[M37]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I was penciling in a fairly generous (IMO) baseline weekly drop rate of -25% to -30% for the new year, and still only got to $560M. There is really nothing in the trajectory of this movie - only the previous ones from this director - that suggests some -10% weekly run is imminent 

 

Maybe if we decide to start celebrating Christmas once a week it has a chance at $600M 🤷‍♂️

Edited December 28, 2022 by M37

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

Actually just how high A2 need to do daily to impress? I saw UK delivered some great Tuesday number but domestic still haven't posted a single impressive number thus far into the run. 

Over 25 Tuesday would be impressive but that’s not happening. Over 20 Wednesday would be impressive.

 

[Noctis]

39 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

Jake Sully is a legend

 

To literally nobody. Poor Jake always gets so outshined by Neytiri. 

[Brainbug]

Everyone needs to see Puss in Boots 2. Like right now.

 

That movie was so fucking good like, its the best animated movie from Hollywood ive seen since ... Spider-Verse? Yeah that sounds right.

[grey ghost]

The trajectory is moving above the Rogue One dailies. So it's on track to easily pass its domestic total.

 

550-600m is looking very possible at this point.

 

(I guess this is obvious to most people, lol)

[IronJimbo]

Just now, grey ghost said:

The trajectory is moving above the Rogue One dailies. So it's on track to easily pass its domestic total.

 

550-600m is looking very possible at this point.

 

(I guess this is obvious to most people, lol)

 

the dailies are beating R1 now, however R1 falls off massively in Jan and A2 doesn't have too as well. #1 Dom of 2022 is in sights

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, M37 said:

I was penciling a fairly generous (IMO) baseline weekly drop rate of -25% to -30% for the new year, and still only got to $560M. There is really nothing in the trajectory of this movie - only the previous ones from this director - that suggests some -10% weekly run is imminent 

 

Maybe if we decide to start celebrating Christmas once a week it has a chance at $600M 🤷‍♂️

There was nothing really impressive about NWH holds through the holidays either but it still legged $183M after they ended based mainly on a weak calendar (which A2 will also have). A2 3rd WE (Fri-Mon) will be about 5-10% higher than NWH same time last year. I know one includes a mostly holiday Monday and the other doesn’t but still. Let’s see what that week holds before penciling in $120M post holidays 😊

[hw64]

9 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

The trajectory is moving above the Rogue One dailies.

 

I wouldn't say that. Christmas Day was up on Rogue One for specific reasons but Monday was basically flat with Rogue One, and the other two days of the weekend were below.

 

Tuesday is up again, but so was last Tuesday and that wasn't indicative of a longer-term trend, it just seems to be that Avatar 2 plays especially well on Tuesdays compared to Rogue One (due to PLF skew, presumably — cheaper tickets are more enticing).

 

If Wednesday is up on Rogue One, then we can talk about it moving ahead of Rogue One on a consistent daily basis.

Edited December 28, 2022 by hw64

[ThomasNicole]

Wow 24M is amazing 

 

Hoping for 18.5-19M WED

[Borobudur]

10 minutes ago, XXR Eywa Has Heard You! said:

Over 25 Tuesday would be impressive but that’s not happening. Over 20 Wednesday would be impressive.

 

I would say 21m for each Wed and Thursday to be the bar for shockingly impressive and 28m Friday as mind-blowing.  

[IronJimbo]

10 minutes ago, hw64 said:

 

I wouldn't say that. Christmas Day was up on Rogue One for specific reasons but Monday was basically flat with Rogue One, and the other two days of the weekend were below.

 

Tuesday is up again, but so was last Tuesday and that wasn't indicative of a longer-term trend, it just seems to be that Avatar 2 plays especially well on Tuesdays compared to Rogue One (due to PLF skew, presumably — cheaper tickets are more enticing).

 

If Wednesday is up on Rogue One, then we can talk about it moving ahead of Rogue One on a consistent daily basis.

Last monday A2 was -8% less than R1, this Monday it's 1.2% higher than R1. Also I think the snowstorm did have an effect on A2 last Wednesday, prob $500k atleast

 

I think it's shown it's pulling ahead of R1 already, obviously every further day of info we have we can see clearer

Edited December 28, 2022 by IronJimbo

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Borobudur said:

I would say 21m for each Wed and Thursday to be the bar for shockingly impressive and 28m Friday as mind-blowing.  

Even if Thursday came in at 21, Friday wouldn’t come in at 28. The jump will be like 15% max not 35%.

[IronJimbo]

looking at the patterns we get 18.5m tomorrow

 

would be easier to call without snowstorm

Edited December 28, 2022 by IronJimbo