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XXR vs XXR

New Years Weekend Thread || Dec. 30-Jan. 1 || ATWOW $67.4M 3rd WE - $88.8M 4-Day WE — Orange Panther $22.6M 4-Day!

By XXR vs XXR, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by charlie Jatinder,

looks like 23.5-24M. 

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Posted by XXR vs XXR,

Too early to tell. Everyone has different thoughts on how it'll play out. Final DOM somewhere between 550 and 900.  

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Agafin Sleeper Hit

Agafin

Posted
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9 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

Again, this is/was the first New Year's Eve without any restrictions in quite some time. Vaccination wasn't widespread in 2020, and 2021 concluded with the Omicron meltdown. Naturally people would rather go out and party rather than go see movies, which will hit exhibition hard. I just hope the Jimbros don't melt down when the actuals come in at around $60M-$61M for the 3-day instead of Deadline's $67M projection. The rare Deadline highballing.

 

Even with $18m NYE, it should still do over $60m WE, or are you expecting a flat/decrease on NYD?

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Gkalaitza Indie Sensation

Gkalaitza

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Charlie gave a 65m projection for the weekend yesterday on twitter after a 24m FRI. You get there with a reasonable 17.5m + 23.5m . With less since the actuals were a bit higher . So the SAT number seems around what was expected .With 18m and the FRI actuals you just need a 22.5m SUN for 65m

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Andreas Sleeper Hit

Andreas

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1 hour ago, GOATPeterJackson said:

Realistically what are the chances of $2.2 billion+ WW for Avatar at this point?

I have been notoriously conservative with forecasts, but I believe $2B+ is more likely than not atp (+50%).

 

I still cannot see $2.2B WW for now, because I believe it will see some steep drops in many markets after this weekend. So, maybe 5%.

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Gkalaitza Indie Sensation

Gkalaitza

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Posted (edited)

Solid numbers. China having a great Sat helped offset  the expected NY eve losses a lot of western markets. Stayed above 60m WW for the day. Solid DOM as well. 65m projection remains unchanged so its about what was reasonably expected after yesterday. Just didnt "overperform" . Maybe the college football matches and it being first "normal" pandemic wise New Years deflated SAT a bit more as people were saying

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ThomasNicole Blockbuster

ThomasNicole

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Since it started out very strong (22-23M) on comps before it suddenly drop hard, it's very obviously just the NYD celebration hitting it hard. 

 

Maybe it even affect it earlier than the other movies since it's a very long movie. For example, i wouldn't be surprised if Puss had a way better drop. 

 

Still, it probably won't make much difference and SUN will just have a way bigger jump as well. 

 

I think DIS will probably project 62M or so and actuals will come at 65M.

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