Valencia Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 (edited) For my final TIFF prediction I'm going with: Winner: Holdovers 2nd: American Fiction 3rd: Hit Man Holdovers gets the best pic nom. Edited September 17, 2023 by Valencia Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 17, 2023 Author Share Posted September 17, 2023 Seems like the festivals have been low on true duds this year with a few high-profile exceptions like Pain Hustlers and Next Goal Wins (a fitting ending to the New Mutants of prestige films, I guess) and Chris Pine's directorial debut. Even movies that might not go far with awards like Saltburn still have their fans. Even without the stars for the most part, the festivals still had a lot of good news this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 American Fiction won the always somewhat meaningful TIFF Audience Award. The Jeffrey Wright Oscar campaign officially lives! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 Post-fests: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Barbie 5. The Holdovers 6. The Zone of Interest 7. American Fiction 8. Anatomy of a Fall 9. Maestro 10. Past Lives 11. The Boy and the Heron 12. May December 13. All of Us Strangers 14. Napoleon 15. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse The first four are locks. I feel good about 5-7 but have some reservations (Zone's only noms could be below the line + International while Holdovers and American Fiction may max out at three noms for Pic/One Acting/Screenplay). Anatomy has felt under the radar at its fall festivals; I'm not concerned about it missing Picture yet since there aren't many alternatives. Past Lives needs strong critics support at the big organizations to stay alive for industry voters. If it doesn't win original screenplay at most groups, I would drop it from Picture. I have Maestro as this year's nominee that misses both Director and Screenplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted September 17, 2023 Share Posted September 17, 2023 The last 11 TIFF winner went on to receive BP nomination. And with 8.2/10 average rating on RT, at this point it is suffice to say that American Fiction is joining the "locked" club. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 18, 2023 Author Share Posted September 18, 2023 Past Lives is starting to feel in danger of becoming The Farewell all over again: acclaimed indie from the summer lost in the midst of more shiny/well-timed movies during the fall through holiday stretch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 18, 2023 Share Posted September 18, 2023 Post festivals: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Barbie 3. Poor Things 4. Flower Moon 5. The Holdovers 6. Anatomy of a Fall 7. Past Lives 8. Maestro 9. Zone of Interest 10. Air ALT: American Fiction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 Lily's going lead: https://variety.com/2023/film/awards/lily-gladstone-lead-actress-killers-of-the-flower-moon-oscars-1235728258/ Congrats Emily Blunt? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 baffling decision given supporting is their best chance at a win Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Lily's going lead: https://variety.com/2023/film/awards/lily-gladstone-lead-actress-killers-of-the-flower-moon-oscars-1235728258/ Congrats Emily Blunt? Nah. Randolph would defeat Blunt. Blunt is like the 4th most acclaimed performance in the film. Bet Netflix frauds Mulligan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: Lily's going lead: https://variety.com/2023/film/awards/lily-gladstone-lead-actress-killers-of-the-flower-moon-oscars-1235728258/ Congrats Emily Blunt? The optics of Lily in Supporting weren't great for KotFM's narrative overall so this move makes sense on that level. Best Actress is going to be absolutely brutal. Supporting Actress goes to Henson if the strike is over and she can campaign, or Blunt in an Oppenheimer sweep. Maybe Da'Vine Joy Randolph if AMPAS really likes The Holdovers but Giamatti's not winning Best Actor. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 7 minutes ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: Supporting Actress goes to Henson if the strike is over and she can campaign, or Blunt in an Oppenheimer sweep. Maybe Da'Vine Joy Randolph if AMPAS really likes The Holdovers but Giamatti's not winning Best Actor. meh, Randolph can win even if Giamatti does. she has the reviews to compensate Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 20, 2023 Author Share Posted September 20, 2023 2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: Congrats Emily Blunt? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 20 hours ago, BoxOfficeFangrl said: The optics of Lily in Supporting weren't great for KotFM's narrative overall so this move makes sense on that level. Best Actress is going to be absolutely brutal. Supporting Actress goes to Henson if the strike is over and she can campaign, or Blunt in an Oppenheimer sweep. Maybe Da'Vine Joy Randolph if AMPAS really likes The Holdovers but Giamatti's not winning Best Actor. 20 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: meh, Randolph can win even if Giamatti does. she has the reviews to compensate If 2/3 of Giamatti, Payne, or Editing happen, I can buy Randolph winning, but I'm not predicting nominations for those three at the moment. A Sessa nomination would convince me more on Randolph than Giamatti would tbh. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eric Lasagna Posted September 20, 2023 Share Posted September 20, 2023 21 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Randolph would defeat Blunt. I thought for a split second this was Grace Randolph you were talking about and was quite confused. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 4 hours ago, WrathOfHan said: If 2/3 of Giamatti, Payne, or Editing happen, I can buy Randolph winning, but I'm not predicting nominations for those three at the moment. A Sessa nomination would convince me more on Randolph than Giamatti would tbh. Why? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted September 21, 2023 Author Share Posted September 21, 2023 3 hours ago, Eric Poirot said: I thought for a split second this was Grace Randolph you were talking about and was quite confused. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAJK Posted September 21, 2023 Share Posted September 21, 2023 As far as optics go, I’m glad Lily is going lead. It’s great to see an Indigenous woman in the lead actress category. As far as racking up wins go, I wonder if this is going to be this year’s Michelle Williams moment. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 On 9/20/2023 at 10:45 PM, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Why? It's a sweep year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted September 22, 2023 Share Posted September 22, 2023 1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said: It's a sweep year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
