Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[filmlover]

Dumb Money's reviews are decent but it's clearly not going anywhere other than the Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical Actor is pretty open at the moment aside from Gosling, who will definitely be placed in Lead there).

[filmlover]

Poor Things wins the Golden Lion at Venice, Cailee Spaeny wins Actress for Priscilla, Peter Sarsgaard wins Actor for Memory.

[Cmasterclay]

Poor Things has joined Killers and Barbieheimer to give us four locks on the season at this point. Six spots left to go!

[ringedmortality]

35 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Poor Things has joined Killers and Barbieheimer to give us four locks on the season at this point. Six spots left to go!

I mean Netflix is gonna prioritize Maestro

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

3 hours ago, filmlover said:

Dumb Money's reviews are decent but it's clearly not going anywhere other than the Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical Actor is pretty open at the moment aside from Gosling, who will definitely be placed in Lead there).

he "def" wont be placed there lol. people said the same about like Pitt in Hollywood

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

Just now, ringedmortality said:

I mean Netflix is gonna prioritize Maestro

do you ever say anything that's observant, insightful or meaningful? Maestro is far from a lock regardless of Netflix prioritization 

[ringedmortality]

3 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

do you ever say anything that's observant, insightful or meaningful? Maestro is far from a lock regardless of Netflix prioritization 

Sorry what I meant to say is that Barbie is the best movie ever made and I wanna suck Noah Baumbach’s dick.

 

“Far from a lock” yeah I’m sure the biopic about a famous composer from a five time Oscar nominee with flashy techs and critical raves that will be pushed by one of the better campaigners in Hollywood is gonna struggle to get into Picture.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

18 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Sorry what I meant to say is that Barbie is the best movie ever made and I wanna suck Noah Baumbach’s dick.

 

“Far from a lock” yeah I’m sure the biopic about a famous composer from a five time Oscar nominee with flashy techs and critical raves that will be pushed by one of the better campaigners in Hollywood is gonna struggle to get into Picture.

For someone who averages as many posts and as much activity on this site, it's remarkable common sense and humor has never once rubbed off on you

 

I've seen the movie. I've read the reviews. "Critical raves" is a cute term to describe the letterboxd, metacritic and rotten tomatoes scores. I would predict it but come on, dude

Edited September 9, 2023 by BestPicturePlutoNash

[ringedmortality]

1 minute ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

For someone who averages as many posts and as much activity on this site, it's remarkable common sense and humor has never once rubbed off on you

 

Oh sorry I should have just said "you forgot the funny"

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

I would still feel really good about the ones I last posted, especially pre-TIFF awards. But I think Salburn will miss the cut and I'm still nervous about Zone of Interest. The Haigh will have fans but not BP support. Wright seems to be having a moment with American Fiction but the tone and weakness of the distributor leaves it out for me. Globes, though! The same goes for Hitman. Sounds like a Linklater crowdpleaser but we'll see who picks it up and if it has the prestige gravitas to be the old dude bromance of the year (Green Book, Banshees, etc). Miyazaki would be a fun NGNG 

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Poor Things

3. Flower Moon

4. Barbie

-------

5. The Holdovers

6. Past Lives

-----------

7. Anatomy of a Fall

--------

8. Zone of Interest

------

9. Air

-------

10. Maestro

[Bob Train]

picture

 

1. Oppy

2. Flower Moon

3. Barbie

4. Poor Things

5. Holdovers

6. Anatomy 

7. Maestro

8. The Killer

9. Air

10. Napoleon

alt: Color Purple, Zone of Interest

 

director

 

1. Nolan

2. Scorcese

3. Gerwig

4. Yorgos

5. Glazer

alt: Triet

 

animated

 

1. Heron

2. Wish

3. Chicken Run 2

4. Nimona

5. Spider-Verse

alt: Turtles, Elemental

 

adapted screenplay

 

1. Barbie

2. Flower Moon

3. Oppenheimer

4. Poor Things

5. The Killer

alt: Next Goal wins

 

OG screenplay

 

1. Anatomy

2. Holdovers

3. Air

4. Heron

5. Past Lives

alt: May December

[Eric the Ape]

Moderation

 

@ringedmortality @BestPicturePlutoNash we do not need these insults against each other on this forum. You can disagree and argue with each other without mocking or going after each other's character. If either of you do this stunt again, you will leave me with no other choice but to give you a 24 hour threadban.

[filmlover]

17 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

he "def" wont be placed there lol. people said the same about like Pitt in Hollywood

Not an apples-to-apples comparison there since Pitt was moved to Supporting to avoid same movie competition from Leo (and to increase the winning odds of the star without an Oscar vs. the one who already has his), while Robbie and Gosling will naturally be competing in completely different categories. But back to this, the Comedy/Musical categories are looking to be rather barren this year thanks to the strikes (the only Actor contenders that haven't been seen yet are...Timmy in Wonka? Fassbender for Wait That's Still Not Out Yet? And probably safe to assume any potential late-breaking contenders not dated yet will be held for next year when the strikes are over) and Gosling is both already an established certified Star and essentially a co-lead in his big blockbuster smash that he was billed alongside Robbie in all the marketing materials, so even if the studio campaigned him in Supporting, I wouldn't put it past the Globes to just nominate him in Lead due to the category being so open since either way, he'll be at the ceremony* regardless.

 

*: maybe lol, due to the possibility of the strikes spilling into 2024 like some are now expecting and forcing the Globes to go the press conference route to announce the winners, once again for them. Shaping up to be quite the unusual awards season year unlike any other in modern times since the campaigning and the star endorsements have all disappeared until further notice.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

14 hours ago, filmlover said:

Not an apples-to-apples comparison there since Pitt was moved to Supporting to avoid same movie competition from Leo (and to increase the winning odds of the star without an Oscar vs. the one who already has his), while Robbie and Gosling will naturally be competing in completely different categories. But back to this, the Comedy/Musical categories are looking to be rather barren this year thanks to the strikes (the only Actor contenders that haven't been seen yet are...Timmy in Wonka? Fassbender for Wait That's Still Not Out Yet? And probably safe to assume any potential late-breaking contenders not dated yet will be held for next year when the strikes are over) and Gosling is both already an established certified Star and essentially a co-lead in his big blockbuster smash that he was billed alongside Robbie in all the marketing materials, so even if the studio campaigned him in Supporting, I wouldn't put it past the Globes to just nominate him in Lead due to the category being so open since either way, he'll be at the ceremony* regardless.

 

*: maybe lol, due to the possibility of the strikes spilling into 2024 like some are now expecting and forcing the Globes to go the press conference route to announce the winners, once again for them. Shaping up to be quite the unusual awards season year unlike any other in modern times since the campaigning and the star endorsements have all disappeared until further notice.

Giamatti, The Holdovers

Fassbender, Next Goal Wins

Powell, Hit Man/Anyone But You

Wright, American Fiction

Chalamet, Wonka

Cage, Dream Scenario

Dano, Dumb Money

Platt, Theater Camp

Schwartzman, Asteroid City

Vatanen, Fallen Leaves

Yakusho, Perfect Days

 

And they could push borderline films such as Saltburn into Comedy paving the way for Keoghan or Foxx in The Burial

[titanic2187]

1. Oppenheimer

2. Poor Things

3. Killers of the fire moon

4, The holdovers

5. Anatomy of Fall

6. Past Lives

7. Saltburn

8. Air

9. All of Us Strangers

10. Barbie

 

I refuse to write off Saltburn just yet because the divisive movie with passionate lovers often show strength at the nomination stage like Joker and Jojo rabbit. And we just aren't sure how divisive this movie.

 

I replace Zone of Interest with All of Us strangers, simply because I believe Poor Things strong showup would allow Searchlight to campaign for All of Us Strangers concurrently. And unlike A24, Searchlight has good track record of campaign multiple movies in one season. 

 

Anatomy of fall is getting in especially after that strong BO performance in France. I am also feeling stronger for Barbie but I still doubt this gonna be strong contender. Most likely will be like Avatar 2 of 2023. 

 

Film to look out: Zone of Interest, Maestro, The Creator, Napelon 

 

 

  

 

 

 

[ringedmortality]

46 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

I refuse to write off Saltburn just yet because the divisive movie with passionate lovers often show strength at the nomination stage like Joker and Jojo rabbit.

 

Joker won the Golden Lion and made a billion dollars and Jojo Rabbit won People's Choice while being Searchlight's priority.

[filmlover]

Only 10 reviews so far but Next Goal Wins has begun at 50% on RT. Unless it somehow wins People's Choice at TIFF (doubtful), it's likely DOA with Searchlight having much stronger priorities (Poor Things, All of Us Strangers) on their plate.

[WorkingonaName]

Taika Waiti lost his talent when he moved to hollywood

Edited September 12, 2023 by WorkingonaName

[CoolioD1]

changed my tune after thinking about it

 

1. Poor Things

2. Oppenheimer

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. The Holdovers

6. The Color Purple

7. Barbie

8. Past Lives

9. Maestro

10. The Boy and the Heron

 

just predicting winners for the other categories cuz I'm too lazy

Director: Yorgos

Actor: Cillian Murphy

Actress: Emma Stone

Supporting Actor: RDJ

Supporting Actress: Lily Gladstone

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a fall

Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things

[Cmasterclay]

5 hours ago, CoolioD1 said:

changed my tune after thinking about it

 

1. Poor Things

2. Oppenheimer

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. The Holdovers

6. The Color Purple

7. Barbie

8. Past Lives

9. Maestro

10. The Boy and the Heron

 

just predicting winners for the other categories cuz I'm too lazy

Director: Yorgos

Actor: Cillian Murphy

Actress: Emma Stone

Supporting Actor: RDJ

Supporting Actress: Lily Gladstone

Original Screenplay: Anatomy of a fall

Adapted Screenplay: Poor Things

This is pretty much where I'm at, though I have Barbie at 4. I think Nolan wins Director even if/when Poor Things wins picture. Same acting and screenplay winners right now though could see Holdovers getting screenplay. 8 of the 10 nominees - I have Past Lives and Boy and Heron missing for Air and......something. IDK what though. Maybe All Of Us Strangers gets more studio backing than Aftersun did, maybe Zone of Interest pulls it off though that's just as "weird and foreign" as Boy and Heron, Saltburn doesn't even have Babylon's support....maybe Boy and Heron or Past Lives makes it after all. I do think Air did 50m box office plus huge streams, I feel the combination of crowdpleasing + beloved ensemble + eyes on it will get it in at the ninth spot IF the strikes end and the super cast can campaign for it. 

 

I'd kill for Jeffrey Wright to get the fifth spot in Actor over Domingo/Giamatti. Love that dude, it's about time. If Mescal could last year it isn't impossible!

Edited September 13, 2023 by Cmasterclay