filmlover Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said: Any why do we assume Netflix is guaranteed a spot? Did they strike some kind of payola deal with the Academy to get at least one BO nom a year? If the material isn’t there, the material isn’t there. It made PGA and the BAFTA longlist for Best Picture. Clearly, the material is there within the industry. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eeetooki Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 7 hours ago, MovieMan89 said: I don’t know why Maestro is still being considered a lock in the odds at this point? That movie has gotten very little acclaim for the film itself. It’s all about Cooper’s performance and nothing else for the recognition. Feel like there’s plenty of other dark horse contenders waiting to swoop into the 10th spot. I also continue to be shocked AtSV keeps getting brought up as a dark horse BP shot while completely leaving Heron out of the conversation. I would absolutely bet money on Heron coming in above AtSV in the BP rankings, regardless of if it can actually get the nomination. Think it’s way higher in the mix than odds would have you believe, and I don’t think its chances are significantly worse than Maestro, TCP, or May December among the ones likely competing for the last spot. If BP were a 15 cat for example, I’d call it a lock. I do think we have 9 locks at this point, being Barbie, Opp, Killers, Holdovers, Poor Things American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest. With maybe the last having a very small chance to get snubbed, but I doubt it. Apparently the industry insiders love Maestro, whomever they are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, eeetooki said: Apparently the industry insiders love Maestro, whomever they are. Based industry. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Barbie didn’t do well at the BAFTA, missing in both film and directing nomination. KOTFM almost got shut out completely in the core category including best actor for Leo, lily for best actress, and both director and screenplay, but somehow still managed to sneak in best film top 5. zone of interest , all of us strangers and saltburn all overperform. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 18 Author Share Posted January 18 BCoop getting in Director while Greta and Marty are snubbed is wild. Warned y'all yesterday to doubt Maestro's contender status at your own peril. Saltburn and All of Us Strangers strength here seems unlikely to repeat at the Oscars but I guess if one were to make it, it would be the former? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 1 hour ago, filmlover said: BCoop getting in Director while Greta and Marty are snubbed is wild. Warned y'all yesterday to doubt Maestro's contender status at your own peril. Maestro bros we are so fucking back. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 Final predictions: PICTURE: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. The Holdovers 5. Barbie 6. Anatomy of a Fall 7. Maestro 8. Poor Things 9. American Fiction 10. The Zone of Interest DIRECTOR: 1. Nolan, Oppenheimer 2. Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Glazer, The Zone of Interest 4. Lanthimos, Poor Things 5. Payne, The Holdovers ALT: Triet, Anatomy of a Fall ACTOR: 1. Murphy, Oppenheimer 2. Giamatti, The Holdovers 3. Cooper, Maestro 4. Wright, American Fiction 5. Scott, All of Us Strangers ALT: Domingo, Rustin ACTRESS: 1. Stone, Poor Things 2. Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Huller, Anatomy of a Fall 4. Robbie, Barbie 5. Mulligan, Maestro ALT: Lee, Past Lives SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1. RDJ, Oppenheimer 2. Gosling, Barbie 3. DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Dafoe, Poor Things 5. Ruffalo, Poor Things ALT: Brown, American Fiction (Not buying Sessa without SAG) SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1. Randolph, The Holdovers 2. Brooks, The Color Purple 3. Blunt, Oppenheimer 4. Ferrera, Barbie 5. Foy, All of Us Strangers ALT: Huller, The Zone of Interest (not buying Foster) ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1. Anatomy of a Fall 2. The Holdovers 3. Past Lives 4. May December 5. Maestro??? ALT: The Iron Claw ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Barbie 3. Poor Things 4. American Fiction 5. Killers of the Flower Moon ALT: All of Us Strangers Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedorito Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 4 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: Final predictions: PICTURE: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. The Holdovers 5. Barbie 6. Anatomy of a Fall 7. Maestro 8. Poor Things 9. American Fiction 10. The Zone of Interest DIRECTOR: 1. Nolan, Oppenheimer 2. Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Glazer, The Zone of Interest 4. Lanthimos, Poor Things 5. Payne, The Holdovers ALT: Triet, Anatomy of a Fall ACTOR: 1. Murphy, Oppenheimer 2. Giamatti, The Holdovers 3. Cooper, Maestro 4. Wright, American Fiction 5. Scott, All of Us Strangers ALT: Domingo, Rustin ACTRESS: 1. Stone, Poor Things 2. Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Huller, Anatomy of a Fall 4. Robbie, Barbie 5. Mulligan, Maestro ALT: Lee, Past Lives SUPPORTING ACTOR: 1. RDJ, Oppenheimer 2. Gosling, Barbie 3. DeNiro, Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Dafoe, Poor Things 5. Ruffalo, Poor Things ALT: Brown, American Fiction (Not buying Sessa without SAG) SUPPORTING ACTRESS: 1. Randolph, The Holdovers 2. Brooks, The Color Purple 3. Blunt, Oppenheimer 4. Ferrera, Barbie 5. Foy, All of Us Strangers ALT: Huller, The Zone of Interest (not buying Foster) ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: 1. Anatomy of a Fall 2. The Holdovers 3. Past Lives 4. May December 5. Maestro??? ALT: The Iron Claw ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: 1. Oppenheimer 2. Barbie 3. Poor Things 4. American Fiction 5. Killers of the Flower Moon ALT: All of Us Strangers Sadly with that massive BAFTAs snub, I doubt Scott will get nominated. Voting also closed so he also can’t use the snub outrage in his favor. Idk how they saw AUOS and thought, “Let’s nominate it for literally everything except Lead Actor” Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 19 Author Share Posted January 19 Domingo feels safely at #4 in Actor after SAG and BAFTA, even if he's almost certain to be his film's only nomination. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 I am amazed people still put a lot of stock in BAFTAs for what the Academy will do. It’s by far the most different major awards show compared to the Academy tastes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 21 Share Posted January 21 (edited) Final predictions across the board Spoiler Best Picture 1. Oppenheimer 2. The Holdovers 3. Poor Things 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 5. Barbie 6. Anatomy of a Fall 7. Maestro 8. American Fiction 9. The Zone of Interest 10. Past Lives Director 1. Christopher Nolan 2. Alexander Payne 3. Martin Scorsese 4. Justine Triet 5. Yorgos Lanthimos Actor: 1. Cillian Murphy 2. Paul Giamatti 3. Bradley Cooper 4. Jeffrey Wright 5. Andrew Scott Actress: 1. Emma Stone 2. Lily Gladstone 3. Sandra Huller 4. Carey Mulligan 5. Margot Robbie Supporting Actor 1. Robert Downey Jr 2. Ryan Gosling 3. Robert Deniro 4. Mark Ruffalo 5. Dominic Sessa Supporting Actress 1. Da'vine Joy Randolph 2. Emily Blunt 3. Danielle Brooks 4. Penelope Cruz 5. Rosamund Pike Original Screenplay 1. The Holdovers 2. Anatomy of a Fall 3. Past Lives 4. Maestro 5. May December Adapted Screenplay 1. Oppenheimer 2. American Fiction 3. Poor Things 4. Barbie 5. Killers of the Flower Moon Animated 1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 2. The Boy and the Heron 3. Elemental 4. Nimona 5. Suzume International 1. The Zone of Interest 2. Society of the Snow 3. Fallen Leaves 4. Totem 5. The Teacher's Lounge Cinematography 1. Oppenheimer 2. Poor Things 3. Maestro 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 5. The Zone of Interest Production Design 1. Poor Things 2. Barbie 3. Oppenheimer 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 5. The Zone of Interest Costume Design 1. Barbie 2. Poor Things 3. Killers of the Flower Moon 4. Napoleon 5. Oppenheimer Make Up 1. Maestro 2. Poor Things 3. Oppenheimer 4. Society of the Snow 5. The Last Voyage of the Demeter Score 1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Poor Things 4. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 5. Indiana Jones and The Dial of Destiny Sound. 1. Oppenheimer 2. The Zone of Interest 3. Ferrari 4. Maestro 5. The Killer Editing 1. Oppenheimer 2. The Holdovers 3. Barbie 4. Anatomy of a Fall 5. Killers of the Flower Moon Visual Effects 1. The Creator 2. Guardians of the Galaxy 3 3. Godzilla -1 4. Society of the Snow 5. Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Song 1. Billie Eilish Barbie Song 2. Ryan Gosling Barbie song the rest don't care Predicted nom counts of BP line up Oppenheimer - 13 Killers - 10 Poor Things - 10 Barbie - 9 The Holdovers - 7 Maestro - 7 Anatomy of a Fall - 5 The Zone of Interest - 5 American Fiction - 3 Past Lives - 2 Edited January 21 by CoolioD1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cannastop Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: 5. Suzume daring! I like it Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 3 minutes ago, cannastop said: daring! I like it kind of hopedicting but i didn't expect it to get in at the golden globes or the main category at the Annies, so why not. it's doing well. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 My final prediction is that Oscar will go 10/10 match with PGA for best picture. No female director in the line up this year. I don’t buy copper director nomination. The current director branch simply won’t grant enough of support to actor-turns director. Director branch has proven to favour heavy aesthetic style for direction in the past decade. That is why glazer and yorgos are in my final 5. Leo is out for best actor. I don’t think Oscar will pick all five lead actor from best picture nominee. So Domingo is in. My final two supporting role slot went to foster and pike. Meastro out for best original screenplay. I am replacing it with Saltburn, knowing that academy love class conflict theme. Complete shut out for may december. I pick Air over may December for the last spot of original screenplay. Suzume over Nimona in best animated feature. Elemental stays. No KoTFM in cinematography. Not showy enough. Saltburn got my final slot. No origin surprise. The grass root campaign is less intense this round and the competitive is far wilder. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) Idk, if they’re really gonna start making snubs like Leo (which does seem possible), I’m thinking Marty might not get in either. Director is pretty competitive and KotFM seems to be falling apart in the 11th hour. Edited January 22 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said: Idk, if they’re really gonna start making snubs like Leo (which does seem possible), I’m thinking Marty won’t get in either. Director is pretty competitive and KotFM seems to be falling apart in the 11th hour, I wouldn't be shocked. I think Nolan is the only lock and then it's maybe eight names fighting for four slots. Any combination of Scorsese/Lanthimos/Gerwig/Cooper/Payne/Celine Song/Justine Triet/Jonathan Glazer wouldn't shock me. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 (edited) 2 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said: I wouldn't be shocked. I think Nolan is the only lock and then it's maybe eight names fighting for four slots. Any combination of Scorsese/Lanthimos/Gerwig/Cooper/Payne/Celine Song/Justine Triet/Jonathan Glazer wouldn't shock me. And then the branch of the Academy that cares about animation swoops in for the Hayao nom amidst all the vote splitting… *no not a serious prediction, yes putting it into the universe Edited January 22 by MovieMan89 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 22 Share Posted January 22 Feels like the Best Picture lineup is very set but the other lineups are interesting - can see any combo in Director after Nolan/Marty, last spot in Actress and Actor both up in air, and I can see any permutation of Brown/Sessa/Ruffalo/Dafoe/ Melton as final two in BSActor and any two of Foster/Pike/Moore/McAdams in BSActress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Final Predictions Picture The same ten every single person is predicting, though if something breaks through, somehow I think it's going to be fucking Saltburn. Director Nolan Marty Gerwig Yorgos Glazer (First out: Triet) Actor Murphy Pauly G Cooper Wright Domingo (Leo still wouldn't stun me) Actress Gladstone Stone Huller Robbie Mulligan (Benning is first out and could see a sneak in) Supporting Actor RDJ Gosling De Niro Dafoe Brown (None of Ruffalo/Melton/Sessa would remotely stun me) Supporting Actress Randolph Brooks Blunt Foster Pike (Can certainly see Huller or Cruz or Moore here) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted January 23 Share Posted January 23 Picture 1. Oppenheimer 2. The Holdovers 3. Poor Things 4. Killers of the Flower Moon 5. Barbie 6. Anatomy of a Fall 7. The Zone of Interest 8. Maestro 9. American Fiction 10. Past Lives ALT: Slatburn Director 1. Nolan 2. Scorsese 3. Payne 4. Glazer 5. Treit Actor 1. Murphey 2. Pauly G 3. Cooper 4. Wright 5. Domingo Actress 1. Stone 2. Gladstone 3. Huller 4. Mulligan 5. Robbie Supporting Actor 1. RDJ 2. De Niro 3. Gosling 4. Sassa 5. Dafoe Supporting Actress 1. Davine 2. Blunt 3. Cruz 4. Pike 5. Huller Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
