stripe Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 16 hours ago, Valencia said: What makes you say that? Holdovers and Fiction are comedies. Poor things is a raunchy sex film. 14 hours ago, titanic2187 said: I have very very low confident about indie drama at BO. Last year, many indie Oscar contenders such as Banshees, Til, Tar, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking didn't make it to $10m by the Oscar nomination morning, most of them didn't after all. And some of them like Banshees is from the top-tier Oscar studio like Searchlight and Focus Feature, which tend to attract more artsy-moviegoers thanks to their branding. Of course I like to be proven wrong but most of the BO run for indie drama thus far through 2023 have been very disappointing. Margaret struggle to pass $20m, Theater camp did just 4m, Joy ride and Bottom narrowly pass $10m. Beau is afraid 8M Asteroid Ciry 28M Past Lives 11M Joy ride 13M Margaret 20M Dumb Money 7.5M and counting... This year we have already seen indie films doing a tad better than they would have done last two years. Market is slowly recovering. Of course, there's still a long road ahead for the market to completely recover prepandemic grosses for this kind of movies. IMHO, The Holdovers has a prestige director and it's an easy relatable dramedy. American Fiction win at Toronto points it's a crowdpleaser. It has already a wide release during Holidays and legs should be solid. Poor Things could be weird, but in a distinctive way. It has a director with many fans, and an very popular actress in one of her finest works. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 4, 2023 Author Share Posted October 4, 2023 Poor Things seems wild enough that it might have appeal to some audiences, even if it obviously isn't coming anywhere near a $100M total (nor should one expect it to). I'm feeling pretty good that the non-tentpoles among this year's contenders won't be given the "you mean nothing to me" cold shoulder nearly as much as last year's crop did, hopefully. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 4, 2023 Share Posted October 4, 2023 Poor Things had a great reception at NYFF the other night (same with All of Us Strangers and Boy and the Heron). It'll rack up double digit nominations easily. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 BEST PICTURE Oppenheimer Poor Things Killers of the Flower Moon Barbie The Holdovers Maestro Anatomy of a Fall The Color Purple The Zone of Interest Air BEST DIRECTOR Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer Yorgis Lanthimos, Poor Things Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest Hayao Miyazaki, The Boy and the Heron BEST ACTRESS Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon Emma Stone, Poor Things Carey Mulligan, Maestro Fantasia Barrio, The Color Purple Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall BEST ACTOR Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer Colman Domingo, Rustin Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers Jeffrey Wright, American Fiction Bradley Cooper, Maestro BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers Danielle Brooks, The Color Purple Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer Penelope Cruz, Ferrari Julianne Moore, May December BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer Ryan Gosling, Barbie Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon Mark Ruffalo, Poor Things Willem Dafoe, Poor Things BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY Barbie The Holdovers Air Anatomy of a Fall May December BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY Poor Things Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon All of Us Strangers American Fiction BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon Poor Things The Zone of Interest Saltburn BEST FILM EDITING Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon Poor Things Air The Holdovers BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN Barbie Poor Things Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon The Color Purple BEST COSTUME DESIGN Barbie Poor Things The Color Purple Priscilla Napoleon BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING Poor Things Maestro Barbie Priscilla Ferrari BEST SOUND Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon Ferrari The Zone of Interest Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse BEST VISUAL EFFECTS Oppenheimer Guardians of the Galaxy: Vol. 3 The Creator The Little Mermaid Rebel Moon BEST ORIGINAL SCORE Oppenheimer Killers of the Flower Moon The Boy and the Heron Poor Things The Zone of Interest BEST ORIGINAL SONG "What Was I Made For?", Barbie "I'm Just Ken", Barbie "This Wish", Wish "Road to Freedom", Rustin "The Fire Inside", Flamin' Hot BEST ANIMATED FEATURE The Boy and the Heron Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Vers Wish Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugger Elemental Don't know enough to predict International/Documentary yet, need I say anything about shorts? 12 – Oppenheimer, Poor Things 10 – Killers of the Flower Moon 8 – Barbie 5 – The Color Purple, The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest 3 – Air, Anatomy of a Fall, The Boy and the Heron, Ferrari 2 – American Fiction, Elemental, May December, Priscilla, Rustin, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, Wish 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) I'm hoping it's a "share the wealth" year, years where one or two movies sweep everything are 😴😴😴 Edited October 5, 2023 by Bob Train Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) Personal preference of what I've seen: Barbie > Killers of the Flower Moon > May December > Past Lives > All of Us Strangers > Zone of Interest > Poor Things > Anatomy of a Fall > Air > Oppenheimer > Maestro updated Edited October 25, 2023 by BestPicturePlutoNash 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 I've only seen the stuff that's out and for me Oppenheimer >> Past Lives >>>>>>>>>> Barbie >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Air. gosh i hope the stuff that's coming out is better. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 9 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: I've only seen the stuff that's out and for me Oppenheimer >> Past Lives >>>>>>>>>> Barbie >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Air. gosh i hope the stuff that's coming out is better. Same, although I liked Barbie too. Air felt like a gentle shrug when it came out but has aged like milk in my mind since then. I hope it misses all together. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted October 5, 2023 Share Posted October 5, 2023 (edited) It's funny just yesterday blankments liked an old post of mine from 2016 when I said Ben Affleck is one of those filmmakers who seems to be getting worse with each movie. Still true! Edited October 5, 2023 by CoolioD1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valencia Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Speaking of Air Amazon has 50 FYC showings scheduled for it already. https://amazonmgmstudiosguilds.com/titles/air/ I really hope they don’t manage to force it in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Train Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Picture 1. Oppenheimer 2. Killers of the Flower Moon 3. Poor Things 4. Barbie - - - - 5. Holdovers 6. The Zone of Interest 7. Anatomy of a Fall - - - - 8. The Boy and the Heron 9. American Fiction 10. May December - - - - - - - - 11. The Color Purple 12. Past Lives 13. Maestro - - - - 14. Napoleon 15. Air 16. The Bikeriders 17. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WorkingonaName Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 14 hours ago, CoolioD1 said: It's funny just yesterday blankments liked an old post of mine from 2016 when I said Ben Affleck is one of those filmmakers who seems to be getting worse with each movie. Still true! Peaked hard with the first 5 minutes of Argo. SAD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted October 6, 2023 Author Share Posted October 6, 2023 I'm not expecting Air to be much of a contender anymore now that we're entering Q4 and buzzier (and more recent) titles have taken over unless some of those end up being shrugged off by the Academy. Maybe Golden Globes and SAG go for it, but that's it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 Air has zero traction. No one likes it enough to vote for it in any category. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ezen Baklattan Posted October 6, 2023 Share Posted October 6, 2023 TBH I see a scenario where it somehow lands a PGA nomination but gets snubbed for, say, Zone of Interest at the ceremony itself. In fact lemme predict every precursor now lol. GOLDEN GLOBES, BEST DRAMA Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro May December Oppenheimer Past Lives Saltburn GOLDEN GLOBES, BEST COMEDY/MUSICAL Air American Fiction Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Poor Things CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Origin Past Lives Poor Things SAG BEST ENSEMBLE Air Barbie The Color Purple Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer PRODUCERS GUILD AWARDS Air American Fiction Anatomy of a Fall Barbie The Color Purple The Holdovers Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Oppenheimer Poor Things BAFTAS, BEST FILM Anatomy of a Fall Barbie Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted October 9, 2023 Share Posted October 9, 2023 I still can see Air scoring a BP nom at the Oscars. It's a crowdpleaser and it's going to be campaigned. Very possible SAG Ensemble nom, PGA and Golden Globe Comedy nom will help to be in conversation later in the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Valencia Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Air got almost half of its FYC showings cancelled over the last week. 52 > 28. Most likely due to being empty. Guess its done. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoxOfficeFangrl Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, Valencia said: Air got almost half of its FYC showings cancelled over the last week. 52 > 28. Most likely due to being empty. Guess its done. That doesn't sound great. Why 52 screenings for Air to begin with? It's a talky comedy-drama mostly set in offices/boardrooms, has been on Amazon Prime for months and none of the cast could even show up for "surprise" appearances. With Amazon's Thai cave rescue movie last year, at least there were production elements to showcase on the big screen. Edited October 12, 2023 by BoxOfficeFangrl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted October 12, 2023 Share Posted October 12, 2023 Zone of Interest must have tons of screening among festival circuit. It has the highest number of reviews posted on RT for a fall award-bait movie at 91 reviews although we are still 2 months away from general release. On the other hand, Holdovers has 57 pieces, Anatomy of Fall has 75, and Flower moon at 78 although all of them are coming this month. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TMP Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Very significant gap in quality between oppy and any of the other contenders so far - poor things sight unseen feels like the only thing that could be a potential spoiler, so it’d be funny if it just winds up being a competition between two Prometheus homages* *poor things by way of the modern prometheus 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
