Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[Bobzaruni]

On 9/1/2023 at 9:25 AM, CoolioD1 said:

i've been sceptical of Oppenheimer winning for a while but now I'm thinking it's probably just gonna be that. Oscars haven't had a layup like this in years in terms of critical acclaim + populist appeal + general Oscar baitiness. 

100%, this is the easiest W for every party and Nolan's 'overdue' narrative helps too

[stripe]

16 hours ago, filmlover said:

The Killer (premiered at Venice a few days ago) and May December (premiered back at Cannes) have been seen.

 

Wow, didnt know that! Thanks.
Today I have heard about another early praised film, Hit Man, directed by Richard Linklater.

[dudalb]

There will be ten Nominees..and I will wait until the end of the year and I have seen the reaction to them to make a complete list..but iMHO It will come down, at least for the Oscar, to a duel between :Oppenheimer" and "Killers of the FLower Moon".

 

I also think it will be like every year; one film nobody is talking about right now will make the list, and one film which seems like a  automatic nomination will be dissapoint and not make the final ten.

Edited September 7, 2023 by dudalb

[dudalb]

On 9/5/2023 at 5:43 PM, Bobzaruni said:

100%, this is the easiest W for every party and Nolan's 'overdue' narrative helps too

I agreel Nolan in in the overdue cetagory;

Not quite as overdue as Scorsese was before "The Departed" but definently overdue and will work in his favor.

No one will ever be as overdue as Marty was; by the ealy 2000's it was pretty much standard opinion that hollywood stiffed him twice for director in favor of a Hollywood Golden boy:' in 1981 when Redford and "Oridinary People" won over "Raging Bull"//now conisdered by many to be the best American film of the last quarter of the 20th Century and in 1990 when Costner and "Dances With WOlves" beat "Goodfellows". "People" and "WOlves " are good movies, but not masterpieces the way that "BUll" and "Goodfellows" were.

Irony is Marty was passed over for two of his masterpieces but won for a film that , though a good film, is sort of minor Scorsese.

 

[Valencia]

14 hours ago, dudalb said:

There will be ten Nominees..and I will wait until the end of the year and I have seen the reaction to them to make a complete list..but iMHO It will come down, at least for the Oscar, to a duel between :Oppenheimer" and "Killers of the FLower Moon".

 

I also think it will be like every year; one film nobody is talking about right now will make the list, and one film which seems like a  automatic nomination will be dissapoint and not make the final ten.

 

Academy going to shock the world and nominate the cartoon CBM that’s half a movie for best picture. 4th cartoon in history.

 

Its totally happening.

Edited September 7, 2023 by Valencia

[filmlover]

TIFF starts tonight. Most of the big ones playing there have already been seen but we'll be getting reactions/reviews soon for Dumb Money (tomorrow) and Next Goal Wins (Sunday).

[stripe]

18 hours ago, Valencia said:

 

Academy going to shock the world and nominate the cartoon CBM that’s half a movie for best picture. 4th cartoon in history.

 

Its totally happening.

 

No way. With the huge amount of praised AMPAS-friendly movies this year, it's impossible. Also, Spiderverse noise already gone, buried by Barbenheimer's thunder. If there's a surprise nominee from a success from first part of the year, it will be Air.

 

[WrathOfHan]

The Boy and the Heron debuts at 89 on Metacritic, above Spider-Verse. If this wins TIFF People's Choice, watch out.

[ringedmortality]

16 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

The Boy and the Heron debuts at 89 on Metacritic, above Spider-Verse. If this wins TIFF People's Choice, watch out.

Well luckily Holdovers is winning 

[Bob Train]

Spider-Verse has no shot imo. The academy will never in a million years nominate an animated movie not from Disney. Animation still has the "it's for kids" stigma.

Edited September 8, 2023 by Bob Train

[ringedmortality]

24 minutes ago, Bob Train said:

Spider-Verse has no shot imo. The academy will never in a million years nominate an animated movie not from Disney. Animation still has the "it's for kids" stigma.

 

Animated movie + comic book movie + couldn't sustain hype. Watch out everyone!

[dudalb]

On 9/7/2023 at 8:31 AM, Valencia said:

 

Academy going to shock the world and nominate the cartoon CBM that’s half a movie for best picture. 4th cartoon in history.

 

Its totally happening.

Sad to say this, bur now that the reviews are in , Spidey will not even win best animated fillm. The Boy And His Heron is going to traple the Spideyverse award time.

[dudalb]

6 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Spider-Verse has no shot imo. The academy will never in a million years nominate an animated movie not from Disney. Animation still has the "it's for kids" stigma.

Hell, from the reviews and praise it is getting, I would bet that The BOy and his Heron is going to scoop up the Animated film Awards. And throw in this i almost certainly the director's last film and the last chance to honor him.

[ringedmortality]

22 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Sad to say this, bur now that the reviews are in , Spidey will not even win best animated fillm. The Boy And His Heron is going to traple the Spideyverse award time.

 

20 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Hell, from the reviews and praise it is getting, I would bet that The BOy and his Heron is going to scoop up the Animated film Awards. And throw in this i almost certainly the director's last film and the last chance to honor him.

1. it’s not his last film

2. Reviews don’t matter that much in this category 

[Valencia]

52 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Sad to say this, bur now that the reviews are in , Spidey will not even win best animated fillm. The Boy And His Heron is going to traple the Spideyverse award time.

 

50 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Hell, from the reviews and praise it is getting, I would bet that The BOy and his Heron is going to scoop up the Animated film Awards. And throw in this i almost certainly the director's last film and the last chance to honor him.

Its not his last film and as far as reviews go even Frozen beat The Wind Rises.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Valencia

[WrathOfHan]

16 minutes ago, Valencia said:

 

Its not his last film and as far as reviews go even Frozen beat The Wind Rises.

A few counterpoints:

 

1. The AMPAS voter markup is much more diverse than it was ten years ago with more international voters now.

2. Frozen was a global phenomenon that (unadjusted) made nearly double of ATV's worldwide gross and almost triple its international gross.

3. Frozen marked the first win for WDAS at a time when Pixar was still viewed as Disney's more prestigious animation division.

4. Aside from a one week qualifying run, The Wind Rises was not released domestically until a few weeks before the Oscars ceremony happened. That won't be the case with The Boy and the Heron which opens well in advance of nomination voting.

 

 

[Bob Train]

Also, Frozen was Disney, whom the academy is heavily biased towards (see how even their subpar movies are locked for a nomination usually, if not even a win like in Brave's case). Spider-Verse is Sony, a sequel, and a CBM, and had some bad press a few weeks ago. I wouldn't be surprised if it doesn't even get nominated for animated, because of that, although ultimately I think it will.

Edited September 9, 2023 by Bob Train

[ringedmortality]

If Spider-Verse doesn’t win (it will) then they’ll just default to Disney. They’re not gonna do two artsy winners in a row.

[WorkingonaName]

It would be pretty based if chicken run 2 wins.

[35MM-18]

4 hours ago, WorkingonaName said:

It would be pretty based if chicken run 2 wins.

I feel confident about it being nominated, at least.