Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[titanic2187]

28 minutes ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

why would oppenheimer win Best Picture when it's losing SAG and probably WGA? Shape of Water, Nomadland etc are the exceptions. I don't think it's as broadly appealing a contender as recent winners have been

SOW, Nomadland and GB ; three winner without SAG and WGA win and 3 "exceptions" in the span of 10 years aren't exactly "exceptional" at all. And $900m is as much as how appealing it can get for a 3 hours talkie historical drama.

[ringedmortality]

41 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

SOW, Nomadland and GB ; three winner without SAG and WGA win and 3 "exceptions" in the span of 10 years aren't exactly "exceptional" at all. And $900m is as much as how appealing it can get for a 3 hours talkie historical drama.

 
Nomadland and Green Book weren’t ensemble pieces the way Oppenheimer is. If Oppenheimer is going to win Picture there will be zero excuse for it to lose at SAG.

[ringedmortality]

The Holdovers getting great reception means I don’t have to kill myself anymore. Next stop TIFF’s People’s Choice.

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

I don't think it's as broadly appealing a contender as recent winners have been

It’s a blockbuster with an A Cinemascore. Just because it’s going up against your favorite gentrified filmmakers doesn’t mean you have to resort to bad analysis. 

[WorkingonaName]

Its not too late for Costner to drop Horizon. 

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

8 hours ago, ringedmortality said:

It’s a blockbuster with an A Cinemascore. Just because it’s going up against your favorite gentrified filmmakers doesn’t mean you have to resort to bad analysis. 

why are you trying so hard to be funny? you just make yourself look even more obnoxious than usual. and lol at you of all people mentioning "bad analysis" as if a blockbuster with an A cinemascore locks it for best Picture. You try so hard to be shady yet wouldn't my "gentrified filmmakers" also have blockbusters with A cinemascores?

[filmlover]

Depending on reviews/reactions to Poor Things later today, All of Us Strangers is getting the kinds of raves that suggests it's going to be Searchlight's #1 or #2 push.

 

Ferrari's getting solid enough reactions that it could be in the running for an acting nom for Cruz and potential tech support.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

SOW, Nomadland and GB ; three winner without SAG and WGA win and 3 "exceptions" in the span of 10 years aren't exactly "exceptional" at all. And $900m is as much as how appealing it can get for a 3 hours talkie historical drama.

so just because it grossed an inexplicable amount, you think this 3 hour historical drama thats told non-linear is the type of broadly appealing film that wins populist awards and plays well on a consensus ballot? I do not. Shape of Water is the closest comp from the films you mentioned but that still had the movie narrative in its favor and 2017 was a year of unconventional contenders. Obviously Oppenheimer is the frontrunner but the early frontrunner usually falters by the time and I still think the narrative of the movie might alienate it with certain voting bodies ala something like The Revenant

[WorkingonaName]

Logan Paul will be deciding best picture this year.  

[filmlover]

Oppenheimer rapidly approaching Bohemian Rhapsody's worldwide total and making a lot more money than movies like this typically make is reminding me how the latter was likely a lot closer to winning Best Picture than most would care to admit (in a year where the Oscar nominations were generally frowned upon even at the time). Given its awards season overperformance, it's kind of wild to think that the Bryan Singer controversy was probably the only thing that held it back from pulling off a victory.

[CoolioD1]

i've been sceptical of Oppenheimer winning for a while but now I'm thinking it's probably just gonna be that. Oscars haven't had a layup like this in years in terms of critical acclaim + populist appeal + general Oscar baitiness. 

[Cmasterclay]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Depending on reviews/reactions to Poor Things later today, All of Us Strangers is getting the kinds of raves that suggests it's going to be Searchlight's #1 or #2 push.

 

Ferrari's getting solid enough reactions that it could be in the running for an acting nom for Cruz and potential tech support.

By all accounts, Poor Things is even better.

So much for a weak fall festival slate btw. And six legit contenders from earlier this year. We may actually have enough for 10 real nominees at this rate!

[WrathOfHan]

The Poor Things doubting never made much sense to me. In a world where Everything Everywhere won 7 Oscars, a graphic sex comedy from Yorgos Lanthimos should not be a hard sell for the 2023 AMPAS markup. Boatload of nominations incoming.

 

BAFTA will probably be big on Strangers. Curious how it fares at the guilds.

 

Holdovers could be a repeat of Manchester by the Sea's nominations. Probably only win-contentious in Screenplay though.

 

Saltburn's done. There's not a world this gets more than 1-2 nominations when almost everyone is dogging on the screenplay. Air should be Amazon's #1 now.

[filmlover]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Saltburn's done. There's not a world this gets more than 1-2 nominations when almost everyone is dogging on the screenplay. Air should be Amazon's #1 now.

The Oscar Class of the Pandemic Year Curse lives on! Eternals, The Son, now this.

 

At least I feel confident Fincher will deliver with material that's clearly in his wheelhouse. And we can already forget about Lee Isaac Chung's Twister sequel/reboot/whatever it is being made with having any awards aspirations so, there's that lol.

[filmlover]

Embargo is over for Maestro and it looks like it's no sophomore slump for BCoop behind the camera. Unsurprisingly, both he and Mulligan are being raved. Should be solidly in as Netflix's #1 push now even if it were to ultimately end up on the lower end of the Best Picture nominees.

[Cmasterclay]

While I think some of this is fall festival hype as usual this is really shaping up to be a very strong slate this year, with a couple movies still outstanding.

[Bob Train]

not expecting much of it anyways as of right now, but Deadline is saying Napoleon might get delayed like with Dune 2

[WorkingonaName]

Thinking

 

1. Oppy

2. Killers

3. Holdovers

4. Maestro

5. Anatomy 

6. Poor Things

7.  Barbie

8. Past Lives

9. Napoleon

10. Ferrari 

 

Last two are shaky and probably depend on box office if anything, Colour Purple or May December might sneak in there.  

 

Director

 

1. Nolan

2. Marty

3. Yorgos

4. Treit

5. Glazer

 

ALT: Payne

 

Actor

 

1. Murphy

2. Giamatti

3. Dicapero

4. Cooper

5. Domingo

 

ALT: Driver

 

Actress

 

1. Huller

2. Mulligan

3. Stone

4. Portman

5. Robbie

 

Supporting Actor

 

1. RDJ

2. De Niro

3. Gosling

4. Holdovers Kid

5. Ruffalo

 

ALT: Damon

 

Supporting Actress

 

1. Gladstone

2. Randolph 

3. Cruz

4. Kirby

5. Davis

 

OG Screenplay

 

1. Holdovers

2. Past Lives

3. Anatomy 

4. Air

5. Maestro

 

Adapted Screenplay

 

1. Killers

2. Barbie

3. Poor Things

4. Oppy

5. Cant think of a fifth  

Edited September 3, 2023 by WorkingonaName

[stripe]

Many possible contenders already seen. My current predictions:

 

Feel secured
1. Oppenheimer (huge hit, raves, biopic, prestige auteur)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (raves, legend directing, huge cast, relevant theme)

 

Solid candidates

3. The Holdovers (beloved auteur + great early reviews)

4. Maestro (biopic + early raves + cast)

5. Barbie (cultural phenomenon + theme... but a silly comedy? Not an Oscar friendly genre)

 

Clearly in the run

6. Poor Things (raves + auteur + theme... but too weird/extreme?)

7. Past Lives (raves + strongest international contender)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (Cannes winner + raves + international prestige contender)

9. Zone of Interest (raves + Cannes strong candidate, but enough accesible for AMPAS?)

 

Possible already seen candidates

Priscilla (early strong reactions + Coppola)

Ferrari (not so strong reactions but watch out)

Air (strong and succesful, but too early release?)

All of Us Strangers (early strong reviews)

Saltburn (polarizing early reviews, but some praising it)

 

Unseen but possible game changers
The killer
The Color Purple

Napoleon

May December

[filmlover]

5 hours ago, stripe said:

Many possible contenders already seen. My current predictions:

 

Feel secured
1. Oppenheimer (huge hit, raves, biopic, prestige auteur)

2. Killers of the Flower Moon (raves, legend directing, huge cast, relevant theme)

 

Solid candidates

3. The Holdovers (beloved auteur + great early reviews)

4. Maestro (biopic + early raves + cast)

5. Barbie (cultural phenomenon + theme... but a silly comedy? Not an Oscar friendly genre)

 

Clearly in the run

6. Poor Things (raves + auteur + theme... but too weird/extreme?)

7. Past Lives (raves + strongest international contender)

8. Anatomy of a Fall (Cannes winner + raves + international prestige contender)

9. Zone of Interest (raves + Cannes strong candidate, but enough accesible for AMPAS?)

 

Possible already seen candidates

Priscilla (early strong reactions + Coppola)

Ferrari (not so strong reactions but watch out)

Air (strong and succesful, but too early release?)

All of Us Strangers (early strong reviews)

Saltburn (polarizing early reviews, but some praising it)

 

Unseen but possible game changers
The killer
The Color Purple

Napoleon

May December

The Killer (premiered at Venice a few days ago) and May December (premiered back at Cannes) have been seen.