Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[stripe]

Why the concerns regarding Maestro? Critics already like it and it's the kind of movie that ends more loved by AMPAS than by critics. Hollywood themed, actor turned director, biopic, strong cast, showy production... 
I am quite confident that these 7 films will finally make the cut.
Oppenheimer

Killers of the flower moon

Poor things

Barbie

Maestro

Holdovers

Anatomy of a fall

 

Then there's still a wide range of films that could get traction. I would bet the other three will be a mainstream (Air), an auteur (May December) and an unseen (The Color Purple).

 

Foreign films:

Zone of Interest
Past Lives

The Boy and the Heron

 

Auteur films:

All of us strangers

Hit man
Saltburn

Priscilla

May December

 

Popular/mainstream films:

Air

Ferrari (if succesful)

Across the Spiderverse

The Killer (if succesful)

 

Still unseen (possible gamechangers)

Napoleon

The Color Purple

Wonka (if it surprises as Barbie did)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

https://x.com/TheGregoryE/status/1702012262473679229?s=20

 

1a “Oppenheimer”
Are we looking at a record number of nominations or not?

1b “Poor Things”
Everyone’s talking about Emma Stone getting Best Actress win no. 2, but could this be Oscar win no. 1 for Mark Ruffalo?

3 “Killers of the Flower Moon”
If Apple, Paramount, and Marty deliver a legitimate box office hit, anything is possible.

4 “Barbie”
Honestly, we wanna know if both Dua Lipa and Billie Eilish can get nominated for Best Original Song. I mean, they are both going to get submitted, right?

5 “Anatomy of a Fall”
If it really does qualify as France’s International Film submission (super competitive and not official yet), it will help NEON in other competitive categories immensely.

6 “Zone of Interest”
A LAFCA, NYFCC, or National Board of Review win would be a massive help.

7 “Maestro”*
Strong reviews out of Venice. It’s hard to believe Netflix won’t get this one in.

8 “Past Lives”
Genuinely concerned that it might get lost among the fall titles and A24’s heavy release schedule, the box office crossed $11 million domestically, which was no small feat. It’s been seen.

9 “The Color Purple”*
Sure, there might be a SAG strike going on deep into the season, but when one of your key producers to campaign for you is the one and only Oprah? Yeah, you’re good.

10 “The Holdovers”
Focus should have enough to get this one across the finish line. Maybe.

[Joel M]

 

Like I already said It would be stupid to put this in adapted while every other movie adapting real people and events is considered original.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

37 minutes ago, Joel M said:

 

Like I already said It would be stupid to put this in adapted while every other movie adapting real people and events is considered original.

WGA has deemed it Original, too. It just depends on what the Academy does.. which will probably followsuit.

 

This could very well be Greta's (and Baumbach) Oscar moment. Adapted would be very tough with Poor Things (and Oppenheimer and Flower Moon locked for noms). In Original, the biggest threat is probably.. Anatomy of a Fall? Holdovers and Past Lives probably too small and less likely overall contenders... but the writers should be more inclined to embrace a giant highconcept comedy like this with a preaching social message baked in

[WorkingonaName]

This is stupid, Barbie is 100% adapted. Holdovers probes taking the og screenplay. 

[CoolioD1]

All it says is that WB is campaigning it there. The Academy can decide it's not an original screenplay if they want and move it to Adapted like they've done with certain titles in the past (Whiplash, Moonlight). I expect that to happen here.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

40 minutes ago, WorkingonaName said:

This is stupid, Barbie is 100% adapted. Holdovers probes taking the og screenplay. 

the holdovers won't beat barbie or anatomy

[Bob Train]

Academy is fairly strict on which scripts are adapted, they put things like Moonlight or Whiplash in adapted.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

barbie should be Adapted but I wonder if the Academy just defaults since everyone considers it such an "original" take, etc. We shall see

 

As of now, pre TIFF audience winner:

 

PICTURE: Poor Things

(alt: Oppenheimer)

DIRECTOR: Lanthimos, Poor Things

(alt: Nolan, Oppenheimer)

ACTOR: Giamatti, The Holdovers

(alt: Murphy, Oppenheimer)

ACTRESS: Stone, Poor Things

(alt: Huller, Anatomy of a Fall)

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Ruffalo, Poor Things

(alt: Gosling, Barbie)

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

(alt: Randolph, The Holdovers)

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Barbie

(alt: Anatomy of a Fall. Holdovers alt if Barbie goes Adapted)

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Poor Things

(alt: Oppenheimer. Barbie if Adapted)

 

The techs will be divided between Oppenheimer, Barbie and Poor Things

[filmlover]

10 hours ago, stripe said:

Why the concerns regarding Maestro? Critics already like it and it's the kind of movie that ends more loved by AMPAS than by critics. Hollywood themed, actor turned director, biopic, strong cast, showy production... 

Biopic fatigue, I guess. Definitely feels like one of those that gets downplayed during the predictions cycle even though it checks off a lot of boxes for AMPAS and sure to be Netflix's #1 push given the big names involved.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

https://www.goldderby.com/article/2023/air-golden-globes-comedy-musical/

 

Air is submitting Comedy at the Golden Globes

[JustLurking]

6 hours ago, Bob Train said:

Academy is fairly strict on which scripts are adapted, they put things like Moonlight or Whiplash in adapted.

I mean, moonlight is adapted, just because the play didn't get produced doesn't mean Jenkins wasn't heavily inspired by it (he even credited the writer); Whiplash always felt kind of dumb to me though.

 

Sort of surprised people here think Poor Things has a legitimate shot at winning, I figured the academy wouldn't give enough support to an apparently quite raunchy film.

[stripe]

 

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

I mean, moonlight is adapted, just because the play didn't get produced doesn't mean Jenkins wasn't heavily inspired by it (he even credited the writer); Whiplash always felt kind of dumb to me though.

 

Sort of surprised people here think Poor Things has a legitimate shot at winning, I figured the academy wouldn't give enough support to an apparently quite raunchy film.

 

It has a legitimate shot but it's still too early. Poor things has the momentum right now, but it will be hard to stay in conversation until February. Last year Fabelmans peaked early and it looked like a very strong frontrunner...

[CoolioD1]

Poor Things is apparently a big crowd pleaser I think it sounds just freaky enough that it's not too off putting but freaky enough that they'll feel hip for voting for it.

[cannastop]

I really want Hayao Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron to get into Best Picture even though I know it won't happen.

[DAJK]

Poor Things just seems too "weird" to be a huge winner. And not weird in the way that EEAAO was weird.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

11 hours ago, DAJK said:

Poor Things just seems too "weird" to be a huge winner. And not weird in the way that EEAAO was weird.

Shape of Water

[MOVIEGUY]

22 hours ago, DAJK said:

Poor Things just seems too "weird" to be a huge winner. And not weird in the way that EEAAO was weird.

 

I'm not seeing it either. Yorgos Lanthimos' brand of weird seems way more niche to me than Everything Everywhere, Shape of Water, Parasite etc

[Joel M]

I haven't see the movie yet but I agree that Poor Things doesn't sound the same kind of weird. Shape of Water was a Beauty and the Beast type fairytale in a historical setting. It just briefly touched on the fish sex stuff that this kind of tale usually avoids like the plague.

EEAAO had some dildos and sausage hands foreplay but they were played for laughs.

 

If this is as raunchy as reported, it might have enough "cool factor" to be championed to many nominations but it's difficult to become the consensus choice if it is full of scenes of zombie Emma Stone discovering herself through sex. idk maybe the raunchiness is exaggerated, I'm just going by what we know of Lanthimos style.

[titanic2187]

On 9/15/2023 at 4:34 AM, cannastop said:

I really want Hayao Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron to get into Best Picture even though I know it won't happen.

It would need some miracle to achieve that. But given that Drive My Car just did that 2 years ago, a small Japanese film by small US distributor without win from major film festival, came out from nowhere but got into the BP race, it wasn't completely unprecedented case.