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Best Picture Predictions: 2023

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Picture Predictions (let’s have some fun)

- Barbie
The Boys in the Boat (Clooney directing)

- The Color Purple

- Dune Part Two

- Killers of the Flower Moon

- Maestro

- Napoleon

- Oppenheimer

- Reagan (catnip for older voters)

- Wonka (zeitgeisty blockbuster?)

 

Edit: If Ferrari makes it to a 2023 release it’ll be my replacement for Reagan

Edited by SLAM!
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Barbie (WB)

Blitz (Apple)

Dune 2 (WB)

Killers of Flower Moon (Paramount/Apple)

Maestro (Netflix)

Oppenheimer (Universal)

Poor Things (Searchlight)

 

Here's a decent 7

 

Possibly 3 of these:

Ferrari

The Holdovers (Focus)

Lee (Focus)

May December

Untitled Billy Wilder film

 

Not feeling:

The Color Purple (WB)

Napoleon (Apple)

Saltburn (Amazon)

 

Will be fun but not Oscar plays:

Asteroid City (Focus)

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My ten 

1. Killers of the Flower Moon (Apple/Paramount)

2. Dune part 2 (Warner Brothers)

3. The Color Purple (Warner Brothers)

4. Mastero (Netflix)

5. The Killer (Netflix) 

6. Air Jordan (Amazon)

7. Lee (Focus)

8. Poor Things (Searchlight)

9. Barbie (Warner Brothers)

10. The Holdovers (Focus)

 


My next 10

11. May December 

12. All Dirt Roads taste of Salt (A24)

13. Napoleon (Apple)

14.  Saltburn (Amazon)

15. Ferrari (STX)

16. Asteroid City (Focus)

17. Untitled Bob Marley movie  (Paramount)

18. Showing up (A24)

19.   Next Goal Wins (Searchlight)

20. Boys in the Boat (MGM)

 

 

Dark horse mentions 

21. Untitled Safdies/Sandler Project 

22.   The Way of wind 

23. Challengers (MGM)

24. blitz (Apple) 

25. Iron Claw (A24)

26.  Eileen 

27.  Elemental (Pixar)

28. Rustin  (Netflix) 

29 No Hard Feelings (Sony)
30. Enys Men (Neon) 

 

longshots  

31. How Do you live (Toho) (Japan) 

32.Shirley 

33. The Peasants 

34.  A Thousand One  (Focus)

35.  The Island (film nation) (Poland)
36. The Red Sky (Germany) 
37. A  polite society (Focus)
38. The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar ( Netflix) 
39. Priscilla (Apple)

40.  Civil War (A24) 


Hail Mary contenders 

41. Mission impossible Dead Reckoning (Paramount)

42.  The Old Oak (UK)

43. Creed 3 (Warner Brothers)

44.  True Love
45. Eric Larue 
46. Cat Person (StudioCannel) 
47.  Havoc (Netflix) 
48. The Bikeriders 

49. Les Indésirables (French)
50. I saw the TV glow (A24)


the true underdogs 
51. Wonka (WB)

52. Flamin Hot (searchlight)

53.  Wish (Disney)

54.  How to build a pipebomb (Neon)

55.  Sanctuary 
56.  Dumb money 
57. Inside (Focus)
58. The outrun (Studiocannel) 
59 the book of solutions 

60. The Beast 

 

wanted to make it a 60 just to see how bad this turns out and how things change. 

Edited by Kvikk Lunsj
Wanted make a list of 60
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On 1/2/2023 at 2:41 PM, SLAM! said:

Picture Predictions (let’s have some fun)

- Barbie
The Boys in the Boat (Clooney directing)

- The Color Purple

- Dune Part Two

- Killers of the Flower Moon

- Maestro

- Napoleon

- Oppenheimer

- Reagan (catnip for older voters)

- Wonka (zeitgeisty blockbuster?)

 

Edit: If Ferrari makes it to a 2023 release it’ll be my replacement for Reagan

The Reagan director doesn’t inspire confidence (Bratz, Soul Surfer, The Suite Life Movie, Raising Your Voice, Even Stevens movie, 3 Ninja High Noon at Mega Mountain) beside Soul Surfer and King’s Daughter all of his stuff is kids movie made for TV instead of getting Director who done adult dramas. 

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1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

Past Lives has already got huge raves so can see that being the big A24 push. Also interested in Alex Garland's Civil War which has been described as an epic and the biggest scale movie A24 has produced by far.

I just worry that Past Lives will fade with its summer release (like The Farewell ended up doing years back). Hopefully it takes off at the box office

 

Assume they're saving Sofia Coppola's Priscilla biopic and The Iron Claw for release dates in the fourth quarter following potential TIFF/Telluride bows.

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Any predictions that don't have at least one if not two international films are wrong. Usually it's one full blown international plus one English-language film from an international artist like Triangle of Sadness. For the latter, Past Lives seems like the candidate. No idea what the true international is yet but we shall see - the next film from the Shoplifters guy is coming at Cannes. 

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6 minutes ago, CoolioD1 said:

miyazaki's year.

I genuinely believe this can happen lol. GDT shamelessly went around for months blubbering about how "animation is cinema". Miyazaki is a legend with narrative and if the right distributor picks it up, I can see critics mount support for him that carries over into main categories

 

I think the last few years have proven voters love goodwill and rooting factor. Sometimes that doesn't pan out (Chadwick Boseman, Glenn Close) but Moonlight, Parasite, CODA, Everything... all feelgood movies with lovable actors that voters wanted to reward all year. Fraser beat Butler because he had a helluva comeback narrative and Austin Butler was mostly a newbie. So to me, that says look at the movies people will be annoyingly defensive/supportive over.. I think Past Lives might be up there

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7 minutes ago, MOVIEGUY said:

Ah yes, that feel good classic Parasite, everyone was walking on a cloud after watching that

It had the most lovable cast that appeared and campaigned together as the underdog, which gave it alot of sentimental credit. Plus, it was just funny and thrilling enough for the self conscious old voters who had voted Green Book the year before and wanted to appear smart after that.

 

I couldn't imagine something like No Country, an ice cold thriller, winning today.

Edited by Cmasterclay
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14 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

It had the most lovable cast that appeared and campaigned together as the underdog, which gave it alot of sentimental credit. Plus, it was just funny and thrilling enough for the self conscious old voters who had voted Green Book the year before and wanted to appear smart after that.

 

Yeah but that's outside of the movie itself. I agree overall the movie is pretty fun, but the ending is bleak as shit, I feel like the a "feel good" movie should have a happy ending?

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“The intention is commendable, but a lot of the questions I felt uncomfortable asking,” says another producer. “I wasn’t going to write to all the actors and ask what their sexual orientation is. And if it’s not something offered up on their bio, are you really going to say, ‘Hey, are you disabled?’ “



Says one studio source, “We want to look supportive of the effort, but legally, we can’t ask a lot of these questions.”

 

The Academy says there's already been high participation in the program and some poductions are providing more information than required. I guess the intention of the new rules was to get productions to hire more people who are already openly "diverse" vs asking crew members and the PR team if they're LGBTQ or neurodivergent or whatever (which is often not legal, anyway).  I doubt they walk the rules back entirely but I predict more industry grumbling as next season ramps up.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, MOVIEGUY said:

 

Yeah but that's outside of the movie itself. I agree overall the movie is pretty fun, but the ending is bleak as shit, I feel like the a "feel good" movie should have a happy ending?

You don't win SAG and upset the PGA+DGA+BAFTA winner at the Oscars if people don't happily love your movie

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