Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

2 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah. Aside from The Boy and the Heron (which is TIFF opening night anyways), we're going to know the reception of all the remaining big fall movies by Tuesday. It's going to be hard for anything to stop Oppenheimer's narrative at this point.

Oppenheimer can easily lose Best Picture. In fact, I would predict Nolan winning Director and it losing BP to like Barbie. Oppnheimer isn't winning SAG by any means which alone will diminish it somewhat

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

So final update before tomorrow:

 

PICTURE:

1. Oppenheimer (Universal) (88 MC/93 RT with 8.6 average and 91% RT audience with 4.5/5 average + 4.3 Letterboxd + A Cinemascore + 300.1m DOM/778.8m WW)

2. Barbie (WB) (80 MC/88 RT with 7.9 average and 83% RT audience with 4.3/5 average + 4.1 Letterboxd + A Cinemascore +  596.1m DOM/1.3b WW)

3. Flower Moon (Paramount)- Cannes (89 MC/97 RT with 8.6 average + 3.9 Letterboxd)

4. Past Lives (A24)- Sundance (94 MC/98 RT with 9.1 average and 94% RT audience with 4.6/5 average + 4.3 Letterboxd + 10.8m WW)

5. The Holdovers (Focus)- Telluride + TIFF

6. The Zone of Interest (A24)- Cannes + Telluride + TIFF + NYFF (98 MC/96 RT with 9.2 average + 3.9 Letterboxd)

7. Anatomy of a Fall (NEON)- Cannes + Telluride + TIFF + NYFF (89 MC/98 RT with 8.4 average + 4.0 Letterboxd)

8. Saltburn (MGM)- Telluride

9. Poor Things (SEARCHLIGHT)- Venice + Telluride + NYFF

10. Maestro (NETFLIX)- Venice + NYFF

 

ALT:

Air (AMAZON)- SXSW (73 MC/93 RT with 7.7 average and 98% RT audience with 4.7/5 average + 3.6 Letterboxd + A Cinemascore + 52.4m DOM/90m WW)

The Color Purple (WB)

 

UNLIKELY BUT SHOULD HAVE FANS:

How Do You Live (GKIDS)- TIFF + NYFF

All of Us Strangers (SEARCHLIGHT)- Telluride + NYFF

The Killers (NETFLIX)- Venice

 

Feel very strongly about the top 8. Venice is not getting shut-out so the last 2 spots I have Venice premieres. The initial Sept release and wackiness of the material/trailer for Poor Things expressed inaccessibility, but it's still a Searchlight film from a popular director and A-list actress. It has prestige and an excellent festival strategy as well as likely support from many branches. The reviews for Maestro might be all over the place but it's Netflix and has undeniable backing with it from Cooper, Spielberg and Scorsese. Might have too much bait to miss out and actors will love it regardless. 

[Cmasterclay]

Final update before the shit hits the fan with review. Buying All Of Us Strangers as this year's Banshees esque breakout. Think only one of Past Lives or Air makes it at this point, shedding momentum fast. Put Poor Things back in based on buzz and festival slate. Putting Rustin back in based on several factors, including it being a feel good film with politics that are going to be in the news everyday of the GOP primary. It looks good enough to make it if conventional, and the Obamas are pushing it. Heard mixed things first-hand about both Holdovers and Saltburn - in general, heard Saltburn was good but not as good as Amazon hopes, and Holdovers is a light movie. I am wavering still of course.

 

Picture

1. Oppenheimer

2. Barbie

3. Killers Of The Flower Moon

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Zone of Interest

6. Past Lives

7. Rustin

8. Poor Things

9. All Of Us Strangers

10. Saltburn

Alts: Color Purple, Maestro, Holdovers, The Killer, Air.

 

Director

1. Nolan 

2. Gerwig

3. Marty 

4. Glazer

5. Triet

Alt: Yorgos, Haigh, Wolfe, Fennell, Payne, Song

 

Actor

1. Murphy

2. DiCaprio

3. Domingo

4. Cooper

5. Keoghan

Alt: Giamatti, Fassbender, Damon, Foxx, Scott/Mescal, Hardy

 

Actress (I'm putting Gladstone in Supporting for now - if she isn't in that, I think she wins here too)

1. Robbie

2. Bening

3. Huller

4. Stone

5. Fantasia

Alt: Lee, Mulligan, Kirby

 

Supporting Actor

1. Gosling

2. RDJ

3. De Niro

4. Scott/Mescal

5. Butler (Bikeriders)

Alt: Ruffalo, Dafoe, Damon, Howard (The Killer), Domingo, Foxx if he's supporting, Plemons coattail, Past Live guys. TBH this category is loaded.

 

Supporting Actress

1. Gladstone

2. Ferrera

3. Pike

4. Foy

5. Brooks

Alt: Huller again, Henson, Davis, Randolph

[filmlover]

Kind of wild that Disney is bowing The Bikeriders, Poor Things, and All of Us Strangers in December (they also have Magazine Dreams somehow still slated for that month but we all know that's going nowhere for obvious reasons). Clearly expecting at least one of those to stick, all a matter of which one ends up connecting the most.

[WrathOfHan]

Also gonna do pre-festival predictions in the main categories:

 

Picture:

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Barbie

4. Anatomy of a Fall

5. Past Lives

6. The Holdovers

7. Poor Things

8. The Zone of Interest

9. Saltburn

10. The Killer

Alt: Maestro

 

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

2. Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Greta Gerwig, Barbie

4. Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall

5. Yorgos Lanthimos, Poor Things

Alt: Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest

 

Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

2. Leonardo DiCaprio, Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Colman Domingo, Rustin

4. Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

5. Michael Fassbender, The Killer

Alt: Bradley Cooper, Maestro

 

Actress:

1. Margot Robbie, Barbie

2. Sandra Huller, Anatomy of a Fall

3. Emma Stone, Poor Things

4. Greta Lee, Past Lives

5. Natalie Portman, May December

Alt: Carey Mulligan, Maestro

 

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

2. Ryan Gosling, Barbie

3. Robert De Niro, Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Willem Dafoe, Poor Things

5. Paul Mescal, All of Us Strangers

Alt: Matt Damon, Oppenheimer

 

Supporting Actress:

1. Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon

2. Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

3. Da'Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

4. Rosamund Pike, Saltburn

5. Julianne Moore, May December

Alt: Viola Davis, Air

 

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie

2. Oppenheimer

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. Poor Things

5. The Killer

Alt: The Zone of Interest

 

Original Screenplay:

1. Anatomy of a Fall

2. Past Lives

3. The Holdovers

4. Saltburn

5. Air

Alt: The Boy and the Heron

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

Kind of wild that Disney is bowing The Bikeriders, Poor Things, and All of Us Strangers in December (they also have Magazine Dreams somehow still slated for that month but we all know that's going nowhere for obvious reasons). Clearly expecting at least one of those to stick, all a matter of which one ends up connecting the most.

Bike riders is 20th. The other 2 are Searchlight

[JustLurking]

11 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Oppenheimer can easily lose Best Picture. In fact, I would predict Nolan winning Director and it losing BP to like Barbie. Oppnheimer isn't winning SAG by any means which alone will diminish it somewhat

Why is Oppenheimer so unlikely to win SAG in your opinion? Genuine question btw, I know little of how these awards circuits really play out.

[filmlover]

9 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

Bike riders is 20th. The other 2 are Searchlight

I know heh, was simply pointing out that they're all from under the Disney umbrella (since the former Fox divisions now see their marketing and distribution handled entirely by The Mouse as their replacement for long-retired Touchstone).

 

Searchlight's also putting out Next Goal Wins in November but I dunno how far that will go, the "can we finally get this over with?" aura is strong with that one.

[Ezen Baklattan]

Okay, let's do this.

 

BEST PICTURE

Anatomy of a Fall

Barbie

The Color Purple

The Holdovers

Killers of the Flower Moon

Maestro

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

Saltburn

The Zone of Interest

(ALT: The Boy and the Heron)

 

BEST DIRECTOR

Anatomy of a Fall (Justine Triet)

Killers of the Flower Moon (Martin Scorsese)

Oppenheimer (Christopher Nolan)

Poor Things (Yorgos Lanthimos)

The Zone of Interest (Jonathan Glazer)

(ALT: Saltburn (Emerald Fennell))

 

BEST ACTRESS

Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple)

Annette Benning (Nyad)

Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall)

Carey Mulligan (Maestro)

Emma Stone (Poor Things)

(ALT: Margot Robbie (Barbie))

 

 

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Colman Domingo (Rustin)

Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers)

Barry Keoghan (Saltburn)

Cillian Murhpy (Oppenheimer)

(ALT: Bradley Cooper (Maestro))

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple)

Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Taraji P. Henson (The Color Purple)

Rosamund Pike (Saltburn)

Da'Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

(ALT: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer))

 

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer)

Ryan Gosling (Barbie)

Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers)

Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things)

(ALT: Charles Melton (May December))

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anatomy of a Fall

The Holdovers

May December

Past Lives

Saltburn

(ALT: Air)

 

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

All of Us Strangers

Barbie

Killers of the Flower Moon

Oppenheimer

Poor Things

(ALT: Next Goal Wins)

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

9 hours ago, JustLurking said:

Why is Oppenheimer so unlikely to win SAG in your opinion? Genuine question btw, I know little of how these awards circuits really play out.

SAG prefers diverse casts and not primarily white men... Everything Everywhere, CODA, Parasite, Black Panther, Hidden Figures. The most recent exceptions are Trial of Chicago 7 but that was a Sorkin film with hammy acting during the pandemic, Three Billboards but that had 2 acting wins and was female-driven technically and Spotlight

[JustLurking]

1 hour ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

SAG prefers diverse casts and not primarily white men... Everything Everywhere, CODA, Parasite, Black Panther, Hidden Figures. The most recent exceptions are Trial of Chicago 7 but that was a Sorkin film with hammy acting during the pandemic, Three Billboards but that had 2 acting wins and was female-driven technically and Spotlight

Isn't CODA vast majority white?

[Safeno Rdz]

1 hour ago, JustLurking said:

Isn't CODA vast majority white?

Well, yeah, but they still are part of a minority

[JustLurking]

1 minute ago, Safeno Rdz said:

Well, yeah, but they still are part of a minority

Oh the actors themselves are deaf, had no idea. Cool.

[titanic2187]

4 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said:

SAG prefers diverse casts and not primarily white men... Everything Everywhere, CODA, Parasite, Black Panther, Hidden Figures. The most recent exceptions are Trial of Chicago 7 but that was a Sorkin film with hammy acting during the pandemic, Three Billboards but that had 2 acting wins and was female-driven technically and Spotlight

You said it like majority Oscar BP winner would need a SAG win. The shape of water, Green Book and Nomadland won in the past 10 years without even getting into SAG ensemble nomination in the past 10 years. 

Oppenheimer doesn't need SAG ensemble win to prevail at the Oscar. A nomination alone will keep the movie momentum.  

[WrathOfHan]

Ferrari's not happening aside from Cruz and maybe a tech or two. Cross that one off the list.

[ringedmortality]

6 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Ferrari's not happening aside from Cruz and maybe a tech or two. Cross that one off the list.

 

Why would Cruz get in. Parallel Mothers got critical acclaim, she won Volpi and LA.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, ringedmortality said:

 

Why would Cruz get in. Parallel Mothers got critical acclaim, she won Volpi and LA.

Because the acting branch loves Cruz and Supporting Actress is pretty open for nominations at the moment. Gladstone and Blunt are the only two I'd call safe right now.

[ringedmortality]

1 hour ago, WrathOfHan said:

Because the acting branch loves Cruz and Supporting Actress is pretty open for nominations at the moment. Gladstone and Blunt are the only two I'd call safe right now.

Wild to say they love her just cause they nominated her for Parallel Mothers. Now, if she got in for Pain and Glory I’d believe you, but I think Parallel Mothers is clouding peoples judgement regarding her nomination potential here.

 

That was SPC main contender that year meanwhile Ferrari will be Neon’s second priority, which is not great considering they suck at campaigning and couldn’t even get Triangle into SA.

Edited August 31, 2023 by ringedmortality

[WrathOfHan]

56 minutes ago, ringedmortality said:

Wild to say they love her just cause they nominated her for Parallel Mothers. Now, if she got in for Pain and Glory I’d believe you, but I think Parallel Mothers is clouding peoples judgement regarding her nomination potential here.

 

That was SPC main contender that year meanwhile Ferrari will be Neon’s second priority, which is not great considering they suck at campaigning and couldn’t even get Triangle into SA.

I mean she got in for that flop Nine with only a Golden Globe nom and no SAG/BAFTA. Granted, that was the year after she won her Oscar, but if she manages to get into SAG here she probably has a decent shot at a nomination.

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

6 hours ago, titanic2187 said:

You said it like majority Oscar BP winner would need a SAG win. The shape of water, Green Book and Nomadland won in the past 10 years without even getting into SAG ensemble nomination in the past 10 years. 

Oppenheimer doesn't need SAG ensemble win to prevail at the Oscar. A nomination alone will keep the movie momentum.  

why would oppenheimer win Best Picture when it's losing SAG and probably WGA? Shape of Water, Nomadland etc are the exceptions. I don't think it's as broadly appealing a contender as recent winners have been