Best Picture Predictions: 2023

[JustLurking]

14 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said:

Hyped for… The Zone of Things weekend? Or Poor Interest weekend? Someone more clever than me needs to Barbenheimer this thing up.

 

More seriously, I always get annoyed at studios cramming everything into December and then a bunch of movies end up being snubbed, bombing at the BO, or both. I wish that EEAO and now Past Lives, Oppy, and Barbie would show them that it’s ok to release awards movies sometime other than November or December

not sure I get your examples. EEAAO sure but

 

1. past lives didn't really do well

2. oppy and barbie are films made on big budgets and not solely for award play

3. oppy and barbie came out in an extremely crowded summer, they were just the biggest fish in that pond and ate everything else instead

[filmlover]

Past Lives did acceptable enough for an indie circa 2023. Given how many of last year's Best Picture nominees struggled to hit double digits total with more well-timed to awards season Q4 release dates, $9M in the summer doesn't look so bad.

[Cmasterclay]

Telluride looking fucking loaded this year. Venice is good as usual too. Unless more things get announced (v possible) Toronto looks the weakest non-COVID year in years.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Telluride looking fucking loaded this year. Venice is good as usual too. Unless more things get announced (v possible) Toronto looks the weakest non-COVID year in years.

It's because TIFF is the one where people tend to buy tickets just to see the stars on the red carpet and with those looking to be nonexistent (everyone is expecting the strike to last through September at this point), well...

 

Many have pointed out that a number of the movies they have premiering there are from famous actors in the director's chair and still don't have distributors, thus taking advantage of the potential loophole of having a starry festival while avoiding the "scab" label as much as they can.

[Cmasterclay]

I've had a big hard think about it, and I'm back in on Poor Things. It's definitely going to be divisive, but all of his movies get alot of strong love from those who buy-in, and the festival placements they've made indicate that this at least is good enough to get some passion behind it.

 

A friend/source that I really trust to have taste and judgement gave me a very third-hand word that Ferrari is apparently excellent, but that's just one person's opinion that I'm getting through several layers of telephone. I have first hand, direct accounts on Holdovers (good but safe) and Hit Man (fun commercial vehicle with a great Powell, not Oscar player) and second hand positive accounts from a friend with a vested interest on Saltburn and Burial. Everything else is pretty much fourth hand rumors or stuff from r/oscarrace or GoldDerby.

Edited August 11, 2023 by Cmasterclay

[Joel M]

I would have more faith in Poor Things if that was the release plan all along. Even after Majors tanked Magazine Dreams early in the year, the plan for Poor Things still seemed like a glitzy premiere at Venice and then letting it sink or swim on its own before oscar season really kicks in. It only ended up with a prime release date and all the festivals because of the strikes. It might just be too weird to be a real player.

[filmlover]

Poor Things' box office is probably going to make The Favourite's numbers look like Barbie in comparison but I'm looking forward to it very much regardless. It's been a minute since Stone had a really juicy role (everything she's done since The Favourite has been IP-based).

[filmlover]

 

 

Also this got buried a few days but relevant. Seems like a move being done for legal purposes in the event that the shady SCOTUS decides to ban or restrict mandatory diversity within the next few years. Richard Dreyfuss will be happy at least!

 

Quote

Thanks to a quiet change in enforcement protocols, feature films entered in this year’s Academy Awards contest will be able to avoid reporting gender, race and disability data required by new inclusion standards governing Best Picture contenders simply by opting out of contention for the top Oscar.

Movies Now Can Bypass Oscars’ Inclusion Rules If They Skip Best Picture Race – Deadline

[filmlover]

 

[titanic2187]

On 8/15/2023 at 6:29 AM, filmlover said:

 

Movies Now Can Bypass Oscars’ Inclusion Rules If They Skip Best Picture Race – Deadline

Actually even SoF can pass the Inclusion rules. 

[Mojoguy]

On 8/8/2023 at 8:09 AM, Grebacio said:

To be fair, Poor things was supposed to be released on September, but it moved due strikes.

Shouldn't all the Oscar bait movies be moving to Dec to give enough time for the strikes to end which would allow the actors to do promotions?

[filmlover]

19 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Shouldn't all the Oscar bait movies be moving to Dec to give enough time for the strikes to end which would allow the actors to do promotions?

That's pretty much what every movie that's looking to stick around for this year is doing. Fall festival screenings (with only the directors in attendance, at least the ones that will show up) to give them some life and then bowing in November/December in hopes that the strike will be over by then.

[SLAM!]

 

- Empty space in Picture

- Empty space in Director

- Empty space in Adapted Screenplay

- Empty space in Cinematography

- Empty space in Film Editing

- Empty space in Costume Design

- Empty space in Production Design

- Empty space in Makeup & Hairstyling

- Empty space in Original Score

- Empty space in Sound

- Empty space in Visual Effects

Edited August 25, 2023 by SLAM!

[ringedmortality]

I’ll do a few Dune free predictions right now:

 

Film Editing:

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Barbie

4. The Holdovers

5. The Killer

 

Adapted Screenplay:

 

1. Barbie

2. Oppenheimer

3. Killers of the Flower Moon

4. All of Us Strangers

5. The Zone of Interest

 

Cinematography:

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. The Zone of Interest

4. The Killer

5. Maestro

 

Director:

 

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers of the Flower Moon

3. Barbie

4. The Holdovers

5. The Zone of Interest

Edited August 25, 2023 by ringedmortality

[BestPicturePlutoNash]

barbie vs oppenheimer for best picture looking more and more likely

 

Barbenheimer all the way to the Oscars

[WorkingonaName]

1. Oppenheimer

2. Killers

3. Holdovers

4. Anatomy 

5. Barbie

6. Ferrari

7. Napoleon

8. Maestro

9. Zone of Interest

10. Air

[filmlover]

Venice starting in two days. Here's when to keep an eye out for reactions/reviews of the big ones:

 

8/31: Ferrari

9/1: Poor Things

9/2: Maestro

9/3: The Killer

9/4: Priscilla

[Cmasterclay]

https://www.indiewire.com/news/festivals/2023-telluride-film-festival-lineup-1234900545/

 

Fucking loaded. Bikeriders, Poor Things, Rustin, Holdovers, NYAD, All Of Us Strangers, Saltburn, and much more. No BP winner in there, but that's because that train has already left the station. Otherwise, as loaded as in years. Venice great too. Toronto pretty pitiful.

[WrathOfHan]

35 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

https://www.indiewire.com/news/festivals/2023-telluride-film-festival-lineup-1234900545/

 

Fucking loaded. Bikeriders, Poor Things, Rustin, Holdovers, NYAD, All Of Us Strangers, Saltburn, and much more. No BP winner in there, but that's because that train has already left the station. Otherwise, as loaded as in years. Venice great too. Toronto pretty pitiful.

Yeah. Aside from The Boy and the Heron (which is TIFF opening night anyways), we're going to know the reception of all the remaining big fall movies by Tuesday. It's going to be hard for anything to stop Oppenheimer's narrative at this point.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Yeah. Aside from The Boy and the Heron (which is TIFF opening night anyways), we're going to know the reception of all the remaining big fall movies by Tuesday. It's going to be hard for anything to stop Oppenheimer's narrative at this point.

The vast majority of the big Telluride world premiers are on the schedule for tomorrow night except NYAD. Saltburn, Bikeriders, Fingernails, All Of Us Strangers, Rustin, and Holdovers all tomorrow. So the Telluride cake will be mostly baked by tomorrow.