Joel M Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 I'm not sold yet on an Oppenheimer mega sweep. Nolan feels almost impossible to lose and it'll certainly get most of the techs no matter what, but both Cillian and RDJ and screenplay and BP seems hard. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Joel M said: I'm not sold yet on an Oppenheimer mega sweep. Nolan feels almost impossible to lose and it'll certainly get most of the techs no matter what, but both Cillian and RDJ and screenplay and BP seems hard. Best Picture this year kind of feels like last year where the frontrunner just ended up being undeniable due to no major challengers. If anything were to pull a CODA in this year's crop I guess it would be The Holdovers? But that feels like it's going for Supporting Actress (feels like probably the biggest lock out of all categories at this point tbh) + Original Screenplay at most. Edited January 8 by filmlover Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Oscars: Feature Films Eligible for This Year’s Best Picture Award – The Hollywood Reporter Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 DGA nominations announced: Gerwig Lanthimos Nolan Payne Scorsese 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Oppenheimer has been nominated by every single guild so far (and 100% getting the PGA nom too). Only film to do so this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Pretty much the expected line-up for Oscar. I didn't expect them to take Zone of interest and Anatomy of Fall though because PGA tends not to recognize foreign film. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 4 hours ago, titanic2187 said: Pretty much the expected line-up for Oscar. I didn't expect them to take Zone of interest and Anatomy of Fall though because PGA tends not to recognize foreign film. The lack of certified hits this year prevented some random choices tbh. This feels pretty safe to be what the final Best Picture roster will look like. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Oppenheimer win eight CC but unlike the past three winners which took both directing and screenplay categories, Oppenheimer came with only director win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ringedmortality Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Look guys, I'm just saying... Oppenheimer doesn't have broad support. Barbie has this on lock #GerwigDidTheThing 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, titanic2187 said: Oppenheimer win eight CC but unlike the past three winners which took both directing and screenplay categories, Oppenheimer came with only director win. Well it didn't help "The Power of Dog". Right now Oppy has in his hands pretty strong possible combo with editing - support - director. If Cillian will make a resurgence on Bafta+SAG (it's important to take both of them) ... i don't see who can stop Oppenheimer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Are they trying to Andrea riseborough Origin into best picture lineup? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 8 hours ago, titanic2187 said: Are they trying to Andrea riseborough Origin into best picture lineup? For those who have forgotten, Frances Fisher was the brains behind the stealth (and controversial) Andrea Riseborough campaign and nomination last year so, keep your eyes on Frances Fisher is all I'm saying! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 I seriously think there isn’t any room left for others to last minute sneak in the final 10. This feel like a year where all 10 spots will be taken up even under 6-10 flexible number of nominees. But if I have to choose the vulnerable one, Maestro would be the one for potential omission since I don’t think the movie is getting screenplay nomination. That movie got some strange backlash and that is without the movie being super rave or controversial like GB, three billboard, la la land. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 7 hours ago, titanic2187 said: I seriously think there isn’t any room left for others to last minute sneak in the final 10. This feel like a year where all 10 spots will be taken up even under 6-10 flexible number of nominees. But if I have to choose the vulnerable one, Maestro would be the one for potential omission since I don’t think the movie is getting screenplay nomination. That movie got some strange backlash and that is without the movie being super rave or controversial like GB, three billboard, la la land. Maestro still feels pretty safe since it's Netflix's clear #1 at this point with the industry nominations it has picked up and May December losing a lot of momentum after big shutouts in recent weeks, even if it might not translate to much in the way of actual wins. Still thinking the PGA nominations are what we're getting since nothing else looks strong enough to make it (Color Purple might have been a filler nomination if it hadn't died on the vine at the box office). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eeetooki Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 (edited) I don’t know why Maestro is still being considered a lock in the odds at this point? That movie has gotten very little acclaim for the film itself. It’s all about Cooper’s performance and nothing else for the recognition. Feel like there’s plenty of other dark horse contenders waiting to swoop into the 10th spot. I also continue to be shocked AtSV keeps getting brought up as a dark horse BP shot while completely leaving Heron out of the conversation. I would absolutely bet money on Heron coming in above AtSV in the BP rankings, regardless of if it can actually get the nomination. Think it’s way higher in the mix than odds would have you believe, and I don’t think its chances are significantly worse than Maestro, TCP, or May December among the ones likely competing for the last spot. If BP were a 15 cat for example, I’d call it a lock. I do think we have 9 locks at this point, being Barbie, Opp, Killers, Holdovers, Poor Things American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest. With maybe the last having a very small chance to get snubbed, but I doubt it. Edited January 17 by MovieMan89 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 17 Author Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, MovieMan89 said: I don’t know why Maestro is still being considered a lock in the odds at this point? That movie has gotten very little acclaim for the film itself. It’s all about Cooper’s performance and nothing else for the recognition. Feel like there’s plenty of other dark horse contenders waiting to swoop into the 10th spot. I also continue to be shocked AtSV keeps getting brought up as a dark horse BP shot while completely leaving Heron out of the conversation. I would absolutely bet money on Heron coming in above AtSV in the BP rankings, regardless of if it can actually get the nomination. Think it’s way higher in the mix than odds would have you believe, and I don’t think its chances are significantly worse than Maestro, TCP, or May December among the ones likely competing for the last spot. If BP were a 15 cat for example, I’d call it a lock. I do think we have 9 locks at this point, being Barbie, Opp, Killers, Holdovers, Poor Things American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, and The Zone of Interest. With maybe the last having a very small chance to get snubbed, but I doubt it. Since 2018 Netflix has gotten at least one movie in Picture every year, and Maestro is really their only shot at this point with the industry support not being there for May December and Nyad/Rustin being acting plays at best. And it checks off all the boxes for a filler nomination given it was touted as a contender ever since the first stills were released. It may end up going home empty-handed, but one shouldn't discount it for a nomination considering all of the above. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Any why do we assume Netflix is guaranteed a spot? Did they strike some kind of payola deal with the Academy to get at least one BO nom a year? If the material isn’t there, the material isn’t there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
