lorddemaxus Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 5 minutes ago, stripe said: Barbie's screenplay is the likeliest place to honor Greta Gerwig's vision and career. With AMPAS we cannot rule out timing, buzz, story and momentum. Gerwig is on fire, she is an actress and thus has a strong support from this branch, Barbie is a phenomenom, and the theme of this movie is timely. I am not saying it will win, but it's just more and more probable with every day. Well, the movie has no momentum right now. It's performance with critics so far hasn't been any better than Gerwig's last two films (both of which also ended up failing to win the Screenplay and Supporting noms on top of not winning Picture). Maybe the guilds will change things but right now nothing I just don't see how it's becoming more and more probable until then. I also don't trust WB's ability to campaign lol (their last BP win was Argo and that was a much weaker year than this) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 (edited) Personally I think we'll have a very good idea of Barbie's awards season momentum when the SAG nominations come in next week. If it completely misses there (no Ensemble, no Gosling, Actress is already looking crowded and like it'll be a challenge for Robbie to break through) then yeah it'll definitely appear to be a bottom half/tech contender at most. Edited January 2 by filmlover 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I don't see Barbie wining I don't think AMPAS members will reward a naughty comedy about existentialism two years in a row. If 1917 seem to be wining everything with its one-take direction, only to have voters realise they just reward a movie did just the same 5 years prior (Birdman), collapsed right at the ceremony to Parasite, I can see how voters will see Barbie the same way. BP is probably is closest comparison to Barbie here. As for screenplay, I am not even sure if voters will see Barbie as original screenplay. They throw Whiplash and Moonlight to adapted after all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 19 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: Barbie is not winning lol. Pretty much the only above the line its likely to win is supporting actor (and even then, against really strong competition). Pretty unlikely to get a BP win with just that. Would probably put in the top 5 though It can easily win Screenplay? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 11 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: Well, the movie has no momentum right now. It's performance with critics so far hasn't been any better than Gerwig's last two films (both of which also ended up failing to win the Screenplay and Supporting noms on top of not winning Picture). Maybe the guilds will change things but right now nothing I just don't see how it's becoming more and more probable until then. I also don't trust WB's ability to campaign lol (their last BP win was Argo and that was a much weaker year than this) The fact that it's like 6th overall on critics top 10 lists is pretty incredible when it's already going to be more dominant with guilds than Lady Bird and Little Women Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: The Holdovers is almost definitely winning Original Screenplay. Even if it doesnt, I'd still put Past Lives and May December over Barbie. The other 3 don't matter for Best Picture since they're below the line. Look at how many films have won with just a Best Supporting Actor win from above the line categories. CODA is the only film to win the Screenplay Oscar without noms from both Globes and AACTA. It's also not winning the BAFTA. Yet you think it's the favorite to win the Oscar? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 3 Share Posted January 3 15 hours ago, titanic2187 said: I don't see Barbie wining I don't think AMPAS members will reward a naughty comedy about existentialism two years in a row. If 1917 seem to be wining everything with its one-take direction, only to have voters realise they just reward a movie did just the same 5 years prior (Birdman), collapsed right at the ceremony to Parasite, I can see how voters will see Barbie the same way. BP is probably is closest comparison to Barbie here. As for screenplay, I am not even sure if voters will see Barbie as original screenplay. They throw Whiplash and Moonlight to adapted after all. Are you comparing EEAAO with Barbie? Both look and are very different movies! It's hard for me to imagine AMPAS being concerned with a few tiny similarities. In the end, Moonlight, Shape of Water and Green Book dealed with intolerance and all of them won back to back to back. Anyways, 1917 lost best picture not because of Birdman being a one-take. It lost because of Parasite's great strengths and because, besides this one-take wow factor, it lacked a bit of substance. It's like saying Roma lost BP because it was a white and black film and The Artist already was and won BP some years before. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4815162342 Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 On 1/2/2024 at 4:27 AM, stripe said: Barbie is clearly in contention or leading in these categories: Best Original Screenplay On 1/2/2024 at 1:30 PM, titanic2187 said: As for screenplay, I am not even sure if voters will see Barbie as original screenplay. They throw Whiplash and Moonlight to adapted after all. 18 hours ago, BestPicturePlutoNash said: It can easily win Screenplay? Meanwhile Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 4 Author Share Posted January 4 5 hours ago, 4815162342 said: Meanwhile The "based on" credit does it again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Sorry guys. I did this Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 Still, Barbie could very well win Best Adapted screenplay. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joel M Posted January 4 Share Posted January 4 I think Barbie-Oppie-KOTFM-Poor Things-Holdovers will end up being the "real" top5, even if any of them ends up missing in director for a left field pick. And out of those the only I can see going all the way atm are: -Nolan corronation but not a sweep. -Holdovers picking up Supporting-Screenplay and BP while everyone else is busy discoursing the flashier movies to death. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 5 Author Share Posted January 5 BAFTA Awards: Barbie, Oppenheimer, Killers of the Flower Moon Lead (variety.com) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 I know Holdovers is a favourite to win best screenplay but that would give Alexandar Payne his third screenplay win. Does he really deserve his third one for Holdovers? So far I think Anatomy of Fall has the best script due to its plot nature. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BestPicturePlutoNash Posted January 5 Share Posted January 5 13 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I know Holdovers is a favourite to win best screenplay but that would give Alexandar Payne his third screenplay win. Does he really deserve his third one for Holdovers? So far I think Anatomy of Fall has the best script due to its plot nature. he isnt credited so no it wouldnt 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 (edited) It more and more looks like battle between Oppy and The Holdovers. Ideally Oppy would take editing, director and supporting actor, Holdovers - supporting actress and screenplay. So, Giamatti vs Murphy is the key fight for this season. Edited January 8 by KeepItU25071906 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 2 hours ago, KeepItU25071906 said: It more and more looks like battle between Oppy and The Holdovers. Ideally Oppy would take editing, director and supporting actor, Holdovers - supporting actress and screenplay. So, Giamatti vs Murphy is the key fight for this season. Don’t underestimate KoTFM too, if KoTFM took best adapted screenplay and best actress, the movie is up for an upset against Oppenheimer. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KeepItU25071906 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 1 hour ago, titanic2187 said: Don’t underestimate KoTFM too, if KoTFM took best adapted screenplay and best actress, the movie is up for an upset against Oppenheimer. if, indeed. I can believe in best actress, but adapted screenplay... that would be really tough, when you're against Poor Things, American Fiction and Oppy itself. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolioD1 Posted January 8 Share Posted January 8 right now i'd call Oppenheimer the favorite in at least 9 categories. could be the biggest haul since return of the king, which was the last time a real blockbuster event movie won this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted January 8 Author Share Posted January 8 I'm thinking Actress will be the big award for Killers atm (how can one not vote for Gladstone if she's gonna continue giving great speeches like last night?). If she hadn't already won recently I would say Stone would have that category in the bag. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
