titanic2187 Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrathOfHan Posted December 20, 2023 Share Posted December 20, 2023 After seeing American Fiction, I'm a bit dubious this will make it into Picture. I really don't see the appeal for international voters and can't imagine the domestic contingent has more passion than the Zone/Anatomy/May December camps. Wright and Screenplay will happen though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 21, 2023 Author Share Posted December 21, 2023 Shortlists out: Quote DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM American Symphony Apolonia, Apolonia Beyond Utopia Bobi Wine: The People’s President Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy The Eternal Memory Four Daughters Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project In the Rearview Stamped from the Beginning Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie A Still Small Voice 32 Sounds To Kill a Tiger 20 Days in Mariupol DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM The ABCs of Book Banning The Barber of Little Rock Bear Between Earth & Sky Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games Camp Courage Deciding Vote How We Get Free If Dreams Were Lightning: Rural Healthcare Crisis Island in Between The Last Repair Shop Last Song from Kabul Nǎi Nai & Wài Pó Oasis Wings of Dust INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM Armenia, Amerikatsi Bhutan, The Monk and the Gun Denmark, The Promised Land Finland, Fallen Leaves France, The Taste of Things Germany, The Teachers’ Lounge Iceland, Godland Italy, Io Capitano Japan, Perfect Days Mexico, Totem Morocco, The Mother of All Lies Spain, Society of the Snow Tunisia, Four Daughters Ukraine, 20 Days in Mariupol United Kingdom, The Zone of Interest MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING Beau Is Afraid Ferrari Golda Killers of the Flower Moon The Last Voyage of the Demeter Maestro Napoleon Oppenheimer Poor Things Society of the Snow MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE) American Fiction American Symphony Barbie The Boy and the Heron The Color Purple Elemental The Holdovers Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Killers of the Flower Moon Oppenheimer Poor Things Saltburn Society of the Snow Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse The Zone of Interest MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG) It Never Went Away from American Symphony Dear Alien (Who Art In Heaven) from Asteroid City Dance The Night from Barbie I’m Just Ken from Barbie What Was I Made For? from Barbie Keep It Movin’ from The Color Purple Superpower (I) from The Color Purple The Fire Inside from Flamin’ Hot High Life from Flora and Son Meet In The Middle from Flora and Son Can’t Catch Me Now from The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds & Snakes Wahzhazhe (A Song For My People) from Killers of the Flower Moon Quiet Eyes from Past Lives Road To Freedom from Rustin Am I Dreaming from Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse ANIMATED SHORT FILM Boom Eeva Humo (Smoke) I’m Hip A Kind of Testament Koerkorter (Dog Apartment) Letter to a Pig Ninety-Five Senses Once upon a Studio Our Uniform Pachyderme Pete 27 War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko Wild Summon LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM The After The Anne Frank Gift Shop An Avocado Pit Bienvenidos a Los Angeles Dead Cat Good Boy Invincible Invisible Border Knight of Fortune The One Note Man Red, White and Blue The Shepherd Strange Way of Life The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar Yellow SOUND Barbie The Creator Ferrari The Killer Killers of the Flower Moon Maestro Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Napoleon Oppenheimer The Zone of Interest VISUAL EFFECTS The Creator Godzilla Minus One Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One Napoleon Poor Things Rebel Moon – Part One: A Child of Fire Society of the Snow Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 What would be nommed if there were still a 5 BP field? Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie and Oppenheimer would be locks for sure. But then, there would be a great fight for the last two spots. Holdovers, Poor Things & Maestro concerned with possible surge for Past Lives, American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and May December. What a bloodbath we would have witnessed! I miss those times Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 59 minutes ago, stripe said: What would be nommed if there were still a 5 BP field? Killers of the Flower Moon, Barbie and Oppenheimer would be locks for sure. But then, there would be a great fight for the last two spots. Holdovers, Poor Things & Maestro concerned with possible surge for Past Lives, American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and May December. What a bloodbath we would have witnessed! I miss those times Thanks god we don’t need to witness that kind of bloodbath. I prefer flexible 5-10 slots. That give award watcher more suspense, not only about who get in, but also how many can slip in. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
abracadabra1998 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Are we still thinking Maestro is a lock for Best Picture? Audience reactions have been way worse than I thought it would be, so I wonder if Netflix might start to prioritize May December instead Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 I would compare Maestro with Mank. Both reverred bipics related to Hollywood, both black and white cinematography, both with industry favor, both from Netflix, both with comparable reviews by critics... and both meeting lukewarm audience reception. In a couple of weeks, both will be BP nommed. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 29, 2023 Author Share Posted December 29, 2023 2 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said: Are we still thinking Maestro is a lock for Best Picture? Audience reactions have been way worse than I thought it would be, so I wonder if Netflix might start to prioritize May December instead I think it is. Movies of this sort are always more Academy catnip than mainstream hits. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cmasterclay Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 I think Holdovers has a non-zero chance of winning Best Picture and so I'd definitely have that in the field of five. I think this is a four movie race rn, not a three movie race. I'd probably have Poor Things fifth but I'm not fully sold on that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustLurking Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 Netflix should prioritize May December just on account of being a way the fuck better film ngl, Maestro probably gets a nom but I think will get snubbed big time when it comes to wins Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eeetooki Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 4 hours ago, abracadabra1998 said: Are we still thinking Maestro is a lock for Best Picture? Audience reactions have been way worse than I thought it would be, so I wonder if Netflix might start to prioritize May December instead I am honestly curious if Maestro is really as big of a contender as people predicted. I know Bradley Cooper's suppose to be an industry favourite, but he really didn't win too much of critic love. The film's target audience also seems to be really niche. I guess we will see at the GG. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted December 29, 2023 Share Posted December 29, 2023 3 hours ago, stripe said: I would compare Maestro with Mank. Both reverred bipics related to Hollywood, both black and white cinematography, both with industry favor, both from Netflix, both with comparable reviews by critics... and both meeting lukewarm audience reception. In a couple of weeks, both will be BP nommed. The difference is 2023 is so much more competitive compared to 2020. I would be happily replace maestro with either Air or Saltburn, or boy and the heron. I could even find some suitable contender from the movie I haven’t seen like Iron Claws or the colour purple. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
filmlover Posted December 29, 2023 Author Share Posted December 29, 2023 1 hour ago, eeetooki said: I am honestly curious if Maestro is really as big of a contender as people predicted. I know Bradley Cooper's suppose to be an industry favourite, but he really didn't win too much of critic love. The film's target audience also seems to be really niche. I guess we will see at the GG. Best Actor is basically Cooper vs. Murphy at this point with the other spots likely to fall under "happy to be nominated" territory (FWIW I think those two +Leo and Giamatti are all safe with the last spot going to whoever develops enough passion). They're also competing in the Drama category at the Globes so whoever wins (and delivers the potentially memorable acceptance speech) there will be the one that gets a head start as the important "televised awards" part of the season finally begins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
excel1 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 Iron Claw is the best film I have seen this year. I am genuinely stunned at how effective it was. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MovieMan89 Posted December 30, 2023 Share Posted December 30, 2023 I’ve been pretty sure on Opp taking it, but suddenly I’ve been getting a really strong feeling they will actually give it to Barbie. It’s just dominating a lot of year end best lists and it feels like this inescapable thing this year in general. They will make a way bigger statement awarding it top prize than Opp as well ironically enough. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 On 12/30/2023 at 5:50 AM, MovieMan89 said: I’ve been pretty sure on Opp taking it, but suddenly I’ve been getting a really strong feeling they will actually give it to Barbie. It’s just dominating a lot of year end best lists and it feels like this inescapable thing this year in general. They will make a way bigger statement awarding it top prize than Opp as well ironically enough. I am also beginning to think Barbie is a viable and probable BP winner. Impact still is there, after months. It's such a wild and unique film that will have a strong support from actors, guilds and producers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 (edited) Barbie is not winning lol. Pretty much the only above the line its likely to win is supporting actor (and even then, against really strong competition). Pretty unlikely to get a BP win with just that. Would probably put in the top 5 though Edited January 2 by lorddemaxus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 15 minutes ago, lorddemaxus said: Barbie is not winning lol. Pretty much the only above the line its likely to win is supporting actor (and even then, against really strong competition). Pretty unlikely to get a BP win with just that. Would probably put in the top 5 though Barbie is clearly in contention or leading in these categories: Best Picture Best Supporting Actor Best Original Screenplay Best Costume Design Best Production Design Best Song 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lorddemaxus Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 4 hours ago, stripe said: Barbie is clearly in contention or leading in these categories: Best Picture Best Supporting Actor Best Original Screenplay Best Costume Design Best Production Design Best Song The Holdovers is almost definitely winning Original Screenplay. Even if it doesnt, I'd still put Past Lives and May December over Barbie. The other 3 don't matter for Best Picture since they're below the line. Look at how many films have won with just a Best Supporting Actor win from above the line categories. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stripe Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, lorddemaxus said: The Holdovers is almost definitely winning Original Screenplay. Even if it doesnt, I'd still put Past Lives and May December over Barbie. The other 3 don't matter for Best Picture since they're below the line. Look at how many films have won with just a Best Supporting Actor win from above the line categories. Barbie's screenplay is the likeliest place to honor Greta Gerwig's vision and career. With AMPAS we cannot rule out timing, buzz, story and momentum. Gerwig is on fire, she is an actress and thus has a strong support from this branch, Barbie is a phenomenom, and the theme of this movie is timely. I am not saying it will win, but it's just more and more probable with every day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
