Weekdays (03-05 Jan, 2023) Thread. | Talk about the New York Giants in here!

[charlie Jatinder]

10.5
3.3

[nydedan]

800 DOM let's go

[Elessar]

Avatar 1 had amazing WED drops. I think tomorrow will be more telling...

 

Hopefully, less than -30%.

Edited January 4, 2023 by Elessar

[XXR vs XXR]

Let’s set the goal for today at $7.25M

[Factcheck]

so +65% compared to RO. If this does +65% of RO 92M (532-440), it will do 597M+ total.

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Factcheck said:

so +65% compared to RO. If this does +65% of RO 92M (532-440), it will do 597M+ total.

This weekend should be at least +80% maybe even up to +110%.

[upriser7]

5 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

so +65% compared to RO. If this does +65% of RO 92M (532-440), it will do 597M+ total.

it's also +75% vs NWH's 3rd Tuesday which would mean $320M+ for rest of the run and will end up at $770M

[Tokugennumataka]

6.5M should be a good target for Thursday imo. 2017 calendar run is enough for 10.4/15.6/10.6 for 36.6 (-46%). Reasonable low end prediction I'd say. Meanwhile, 2012 calender run gives us 14.9/22.4/12.5 for 49.8 (-26%). 

[cubsfan]

Beats I2 if it holds.

[Tokugennumataka]

4 minutes ago, upriser7 said:

it's also +75% vs NWH's 3rd Tuesday which would mean $320M+ for rest of the run and will end up at $770M

NWH had gigantic late legs partially boosted by Canada reopening. It held on strong through Feb and March. Avatwo's legs after it loses PLFs and 3D remains to be seen (Keep in mind that even the original Avatar had unremarkable holds after it lost 3D to Alice in Wonderland). Using a single data point to compare it to NWH is faulty. Let the post holiday legs brew and manifest before drawing any meaningful assumptions imo.

[XXR vs XXR]

My expectation for the 4th weekend is 6.25-6.75x this Thursday. 

[stripe]

35 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

10.5
3.3

 

A2 stellar performance is overshadowing the excellent run of PiB.

3.3M is just a 42% decline from Monday!

[Factcheck]

15 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

This weekend should be at least +80% maybe even up to +110%.

So final numbers will be close to the cinelytic prediction of $650M; it also predicted 423M for WF.

 

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

[BadOlCatSylvester]

Now that's a more realistic, but still amazing number. I think if it holds it'll be the biggest third Tuesday ever. $700M domestically is looking more likely by the day!

[XXR vs XXR]

20 minutes ago, Factcheck said:

So final numbers will be close to the cinelytic prediction of $650M; it also predicted 423M for WF.

 

https://variety.com/vip/2022s-last-hopes-box-office-projections-for-avatar-2-black-adam-black-panther-2-1235388447/

We’ll see. Cinelytic also predicted $328M DOM for Black Adam lol 

[Factcheck]

5 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

We’ll see. Cinelytic also predicted $328M DOM for Black Adam lol 

combo effect of bad quality & bad marketing

[Dale Cooper]

I think we should not get too carried away with this number. It's obviously good, but I still see a weekend of around ~$39m. Maybe it can do bigger, bit maybe it will come back down after a great run the last 8 days.

[M37]

33 minutes ago, XXR the Conqueror said:

My expectation for the 4th weekend is 6.25-6.75x this Thursday. 

In 2017, only Sing was over a 6x Thursday for that weekend. Rest of slate was 4.8x-5.67x (with RO actually being the highest). Could certainly see Avatwo shallow the Tu/W/Th level (especially with run time factor), before kicking back up on the weekend, but not sure I’d set the expectations bar quite that high 

 

This weekend should really be first tell on whether this past week+ has been more legs/WOM effect vs holiday boon (and right now you could convince me of either scenario)

[Elessar]

R1's upcoming friday was a smidgen bellow its tuesday.

 

How will A2 behave? *looks for someone with a crystal ball*

Edited January 4, 2023 by Elessar

[Brainbug]

Thats a really great number for Puss in Boots as well.