MLK Weekend Thread (1/13-16) | 3-day/4-day Estimates: Avatar 32.4M/40.6M, M3GAN 18.26M/21.72M, Puss 14.39M/19.04M, Otto 12.8M/15.33M, Plane 10M/12.03M, House Party 4M/4.73M

[MikeQ]

If that near +100% Saturday jump is any indication, Way of Water is solidifying itself as a weekend film. 

 

If @XXR the Conqueror is right and it's looking at 31.5M for the weekend, it will probably be at about ~$570M after Monday. It will need another $100M to hit $670M and a 5+ multiplier. Possible, but by no means guaranteed. In addition to seeing where the film ends up worldwide, this is what sustains my interest in the film's later run - to see if it can hit this milestone.  I'll be looking to see if it can capitalize over the next few weekends with some strong holds, otherwise it may be tough.

 

Too bad Titanic and Way of Water aren't the same studio, otherwise I'd suggest they get on that "double feature" marketing for when Titanic opens. "This Valentine's Day, experience two of James Cameron's cinematic masterpieces on the big screen... one about family and the other about love... and both starring Kate Winslet. 😅😉 [/joke] (Though I may do that double feature myself - certainly won't be missing Titanic, at least.)

 

Peace,

Mike

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

puss 5.9

Holy God you gave me a heart attack at first lol b/c I thought the 3.8 was for Puss not plane

[Ronin46]

1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

puss 6.9

 

Hmm.

[Alex SciChannel]

Puss is likely gonna have at worst a 1% decrease from last weekend to this one. And at best a small increase. Holy cow this is performing better than The Greatest Showman at this point.

 

 

 

[Jonan23]

Nice rebound jump from Avatar. I have no hope for weekdays but I will continue to be super optimistic for Saturdays. Nice Saturday all around

[chaos]

puss holds very well and  .. and A2 will make 35+ mIllion till sunday (7.5/14/14)

[upriser7]

10 minutes ago, chaos said:

puss holds very well and  .. and A2 will make 35+ mIllion till sunday (7.5/14/14)

it's extremely unlikely that A2 makes 14 on Sunday...I don't see a reason why it wouldn't decrease. There are more playoff games on Sunday than Saturday, starting from 1PM ET and going on until 11PM ET and also Monday isn't holiday for some people.

[Jiffy]

Yes probably 15% drop would be very best case scenario for Sunday.

[TRISTAN]

6 hours ago, Mulder said:

The only place severely affected by COVID was China. These numbers were always not going to happen.

You are forgetting Russia where Avatar 1 made $100 million and Avatar 2 would do at least same.

[Tokugennumataka]

47 minutes ago, chaos said:

puss holds very well and  .. and A2 will make 35+ mIllion till sunday (7.5/14/14)

Nah. 7.25/14.5/14.5/14.5 for life

[Jiffy]

7 minutes ago, TRISTAN said:

You are forgetting Russia where Avatar 1 made $100 million and Avatar 2 would do at least same.

I think the market had shrunk since 2009 hadn't it? Still I would have thought it would at least be good for $60m or so.

 

I think it would take a sub-20% drop next week for me to believe TGM is still on the table, and since it is having a heavier drop on a holiday weekend that seems quite unlikely.

 

$650m will be great at the end of the day.

 

[ando]

7/13.75/11/8.75 sounds good to me. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by ando

[kayumanggi]

Great numbers again! 2023 is off to a really good start. That's five movies making $10M+ weekend numbers.

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

Great numbers again! 2023 is off to a really good start. That's five movies making $10M+ weekend numbers.

It’s a great follow up to M3GAN’s opening last weekend too. Now we just need the bottom half of the top 10 to step up. 

[Elessar]

Well, i'm not surprised by that SAT jump. The only thing that i was wondering about is how much the NFL playoffs would affect it.

[charlie Jatinder]

4 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

By my comps with yesterday came to 13.95 and comps with last Saturday came tad above 14m. But I like Charlie's number as well. 

your ratio will keep increasing as the smaller cinemas have smaller runs.

[Mr Roark]

Nice numbers as predicted. 2nd 5th best Sat/Sun for a 2nd best 5th weekend. 

[Shanks]

Do Studio's earn more if it legs out? I thought it was Theatres that make more if movie legs out but because Price would decrease a lot over dozens of weekend, even with higher share of cut, Theatres would be getting low amount of money. Don't assume I am asking because of generic Marvel or Avatar run, it's simple curiosity that occurred to when I was looking through Admission numbers, Grosses and the ATP getting lower and lower as weekends went on~

 

Selling 10M tickets in 1st Weekend with highest ATP is way more profitable for both Studio and Theatres rather than spreading out those 10M Admissions in 20 Weekends. 

 

Someone knowledgeable enough explain me, What am I missing here - What exactly led to this belief that a movie opening to 100m & legging to 800M in thirty weeks is better than movie making 800M in two weeks and dying next day. 

Edited January 15, 2023 by Shanks

[kayumanggi]

59 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

It’s a great follow up to M3GAN’s opening last weekend too. Now we just need the bottom half of the top 10 to step up. 

 

That's what's still missing. The top 6 - 10 during the same weekend in 2019 were stronger. But of course, December 2022 was pretty much barren except for AVATAR: TWOW and PUSS IN BOOTS: TLW. But 2023 is packed. We'll see better numbers overall, at least compared to 2022. It won't have movies like TGM or TWOW, but I expect the money will be more evenly distributed this time.

[CJohn]

Big Saturday for Avatar, Puss and M3GAN. Those 3 are literally carrying theaters from this weekend's bomb openers.