Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[M37]

9 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

that would track 4.65>9.3>7, which seems a bit high for Sunday don't you think?

More like $4.65/$10/$6.5 is what I have. It’s a Sat/Sun heavy film 

[Valonqar]

is 3 straight 600M grossers a record for a director? Ganted, he does it every 12-14 years  but still achievment is achievment.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Valonqar

[Eric the Minion]

37 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Will M3gan even reach 100m? Yeah it’s really profitable but considering the crazy amount of marketing it’s a little disappointing 

Honestly I think it still can. Using the 72.6M total from Deadline, and if it follows Scream's run (yea, I know it had an MLK opening and isn't perfect), it still gets to about 95M. It has better WOM than Scream and isn't an established franchise, so I can also see it getting to about 97-98M, which is just enough for it to get fudged to the century mark. Plus it'll still play in big auditoriums until Ant-Man drops.

[YM!]

15 minutes ago, Eric is Missing said:

So like...is there a reason why Missing is doing on par with Searching here like this? Because I know this isn't really a Searching sequel per se, but that film didn't really have much staying power or longevity after its release.

Audiences are slowly creeping back honestly.

[TwoMisfits]

So, Puss TLW has a chance to also have this weekend above its OW...would that be a record for a movie that opened wide?

 

PS - So, when does Puss pass Avatar for weekend gross?  Next weekend or the one after, when a large PLF drop happens?  Or does it never?

[YM!]

Projectionists, what total is Puss looking at? Considering it’s likely to do 11-12M this weekend.

[kayumanggi]

...

Edited January 21, 2023 by kayumanggi

[BoxOfficeFangrl]

21 minutes ago, Flopped said:

Wow, I'm legit stunned by the numbers for the Tom Hanks movie. Not that the raw numbers themselves are stunning, but an old man adult drama with mediocre reviews doing this well in 2023??????

Unlike most of this fall’s awards hopefuls the trailers/ads for Otto are very straightforward in selling a story that the "average moviegoer" would want to see. The actual movie isn't as lighthearted as the trailers, but "grumpy old neighbor learns to live again" with a big star lures people into theaters more easily than "The magic of movies!" and "Discussions of sexual abuse and/or racial violence for two hours," "Grim Irish comedy!" or "Talky classical music psychodrama!"

 

 

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

All of the above. M3GAN should be an example for all of Hollywood (and especially smaller-budget films) how to use viral marketing trends for your advantage. Like you said, its free and its in this day and age maybe even more effective than classical marketing for certain demographics.

Studios can try viral marketing but it still has to catch on. Apparently, there were some TikTok efforts for Babylon that were cringe,  somehow. Viral marketing probably works for some genres/demos better than others.

[Borobudur]

With that Friday, Avatar isn't able to clear 600m in this weekend itself....

[M37]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, Puss TLW has a chance to also have this weekend above its OW...would that be a record for a movie that opened wide?

Showman beat its (Xmas eve Sun) OW every week through January, until Feb 3-5 (Super Bowl). And of course Titanic 

 

[kayumanggi]

Can THE WAY OF WATER be number one again for the 7th time next weekend? That would tie the original.

[Brainbug]

1 minute ago, Borobudur said:

With that Friday, Avatar isn't able to clear 600m in this weekend itself....

 

Its a bummer. Personally, i dont think Avatar 2 now has a chance to gross more than 649 - 652M in total DOM.

 

Thats just a hunch though.

[Alex SciChannel]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Numbers starting to roll in:

 

PiB = $2.75 (+183%) —> $11M

M3G = $2.62 (+165%) —> $9.5M 

Whale = $360K —> $1.2M

 

Does look like popcorn day Thur bump lowered the Fri increases 

 

Except for PiB. That Friday increase is basically equivalent to last week.

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by Alex SciChannel

[M37]

Just now, Alex SciChannel said:

 

Except for PiB. That Friday increase is basically equivalent to last week.

 

Except Fri (and Sat) increases were expected to be higher this week. I guess there is some tail end holiday effect the week leading into MLK, so the week after is when we finally get to “normal” weekday/weekend ratios 

[Xavier]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Its a bummer. Personally, i dont think Avatar 2 now has a chance to gross more than 649 - 652M in total DOM.

 

Thats just a hunch though.

hunch or hope?

[Alex SciChannel]

6 minutes ago, M37 said:

Except Fri (and Sat) increases were expected to be higher this week.

Really? Why? I don't see a reason to assume that

[kayumanggi]

MISSING's cinemascore is B.

[MrFanaticGuy34]

Any blockbuster that makes over $600M+ DOM is always considered a good win and never a box office failure or box office disappointment. 💁🏻‍♀️😉🥳💰💸🤑

[DC Rich]

5 minutes ago, Xavier said:

hunch or hope?

  

[Eric the Minion]

Full Deadline chart

 

Quote

1.) Avatar 2 (Dis) 3,790 (-255) theaters Fri $4.6M (-34%) 3-day $17M-$20MM (-39%), Total $598.3M (on the high end)/Wk 6

2.) Puss in in Boots 2 (Uni) 3,611 (-76) theaters Fri $2.75M (-10%) 3-day $12.4M (-14%)/Total $127.3M/Wk 5

3.) M3GAN (Uni) 3,628 (+23) theaters Fri $2.6M (-46%)3-day $9.1M (-50%) Total $72.6M /Wk 3

4.) A Man Called Otto (Sony) 3,802 theaters, Fri $2.6M (-35%)3-day $9M (-30%)/Total $35.3M/Wk 4

5.) Missing (Sony) 3.025 theaters, Fri $3.4M, 3-day $8.5M/Wk 1

6.) Plane (LG) 3,060 theaters (+37%), Fri $1.56M (-56%) 3-day $5.3M (-50%), Total $19.5M/Wk 2

7.) House Party (NL) 1,400 theaters, Fri $520K (-63%) 3-day $1.75M (-51%), Total $7.1M/Wk 2

8.) That Time I Got…(Crunchyroll), 1,468 theaters, Fri $697,7K, 3-day $1.4M/Wk 1

9.) Wakanda Forever (Dis) 1,525 (-385) theaters Fri $335K (-36%) 3-day $1.36M (-45%), Total $451.8M/ Wk 11

10) The Whale (A24) 1,591 (+91) theaters Fri $360,9K (-14%)3 day $1.23M (-18%) Total $13.1M/Wk 7

 

The Whale's run has quietly been very impressive in our post-COVID, anti-specialty market, especially considering how polarizing it is. Depending on how well it does with the Oscar nominations this Tuesday and a potential Fraser win, it could reach 20M, which would place it in A24's top 10 grossers.