Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[GOGODanca]

1 hour ago, M37 said:

Which happened after Canada reopened (delayed demand from COVID overall), and didn’t start to lose PLFs nor have a $100M opener in February
 

Holds the last couple of weeks have been solid, but not spectacular, without much in the way of direct competition. Maybe it hits a grove next week and starts clocking -10% weekly, but that would be way outrunning current rate of decline 

if this movies holds are only "solid" then how would you describe holds for the other 99% of movies that release?

[DTP]

Regardless of where The Way of Money ends up domestically, it's an unstoppable powerhouse globally. 2 billie by Sunday is amazing 👏 

 

Puss in Boots is a beast! Hoping to catch it and M3gan in the next week or two. 

 

Glad WF made it to 450 after all. 

[interiorgatordecorator]

5 hours ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

Looks like a $695-725M domestic finish for A2.

 

700 million and I have nothing to complain about

 

Edited January 21, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[MovieMan89]

Hoping for at least 22. That’s my I still feel comfortable it can take down TGM mark. 

[Ronin46]

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Hoping for at least 22. That’s my I still feel comfortable it can take down TGM mark. 

 

You think this gets over TGM at 718? I guess it can but I think its maybe 10% chance. Just my opinion though.

[Cheddar Please]

My overly specific timeline has not changed since last week:

1/20	20,500,000	598,776,353	-37.55%
1/24	7,100,000	605,876,353	-47.99%
1/27	15,200,000	621,076,353	-25.85%
1/31	5,200,000	626,276,353	-26.76%
2/03	11,400,000	637,676,353	-25.00%
2/07	4,000,000	641,676,353	-23.08%
2/10	8,000,000	649,676,353	-29.82%	Titanic Rerelease
2/14	3,000,000	652,676,353	-25.00%	Valentine's Day
2/17	4,500,000	657,176,353	-43.75%	Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd
2/21	2,325,000	659,501,353	-22.50%	President's Day
2/24	2,500,000	662,001,353	-44.44%	TGM crosses here (662.4)
2/28	940,000	662,941,353	-59.57%
TOTAL	14,000,000*	676,941,353		14m figure is extrapolated from summation of 25% drops going forwards rounded to the nearest million

 

Keep in mind ~25% drops from now until Ant-Man OW is already a pretty optimistic baseline given its current trend of ~30%. Unless this starts mirroring NWH and TGM with sub-20% drops I believe 700m is out of the question.

Edited January 21, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[Mulder]

It going over 650+ is still impressive considering how it was looking before weekend 3.

[Cmasterclay]

Missing review: Just like Searching, this was great, twisty entertainment. They should make 20 Searching Cinematic Universe movies and I'd watch them like I was an MCU fan. Hope it makes some money, my theater was actually quite packed for it.

[Danhjpn]

The movie is going to finish with $2.2B+, top 3 or 4 all time worldwide and people still care about its drop per day.

 

[Legion Again]

Man this thread is dead. Hopefully missing explodes.

[Brainbug]

Will we even reach 10 pages this weekend? Sad.

 

Thankfully, theres a tried and tested method to avoid such a scenario.

 

*Clears throat*

 

"That is an ugly ass Thursday number for Avatar! 650M is dead!"

 

"Will Avatar even reach 20M this weekend? The weekday numbers are awful!"

 

"Cinemas are truly dead"

 

"Day-and-date streaming releases are the future of cinema! Streaming RULES!"

 

"Compared to other December releases, Avatar 2's multiplier isnt that impressive!"

 

"MCU is dead. Phase 4 killed it. Phase 5 will flop."

[Elessar]

3 hours ago, Danhjpn said:

The movie is going to finish with $2.2B+, top 3 or 4 all time worldwide and people still care about its drop per day.

 

 

True but some of us still might wanna know if it can cross the $700m DOM milestone.

[Aristis]

15 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Will we even reach 10 pages this weekend? Sad.

 

Thankfully, theres a tried and tested method to avoid such a scenario.

 

*Clears throat*

 

"That is an ugly ass Thursday number for Avatar! 650M is dead!"

 

"Will Avatar even reach 20M this weekend? The weekday numbers are awful!"

 

"Cinemas are truly dead"

 

"Day-and-date streaming releases are the future of cinema! Streaming RULES!"

 

"Compared to other December releases, Avatar 2's multiplier isnt that impressive!"

 

"MCU is dead. Phase 4 killed it. Phase 5 will flop."

Maybe something about giants 👀

[Legion Again]

17 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Will we even reach 10 pages this weekend? Sad.

 

Thankfully, theres a tried and tested method to avoid such a scenario.

 

*Clears throat*

 

"That is an ugly ass Thursday number for Avatar! 650M is dead!"

 

"Will Avatar even reach 20M this weekend? The weekday numbers are awful!"

 

"Cinemas are truly dead"

 

"Day-and-date streaming releases are the future of cinema! Streaming RULES!"

 

"Compared to other December releases, Avatar 2's multiplier isnt that impressive!"

 

"MCU is dead. Phase 4 killed it. Phase 5 will flop."

[Legion Again]

Honestly, the th boosts do make me more interested in holdover Fris than usual (even if the default presumption is just that they follow regular fri/wed patterns)

[todos]

But Rogue one

[todos]

Passengers

[todos]

Ugly weekly drops yikes! Can’t even match NWH. Catching TGM? Not with a $20M weekend 😈 

Football will kick Avatars ass! Haha Avatar is dead even on weekends. NFL baby!

 

And the mighty Wasp is coming. Been lucky with no competition. It’s over!

$490M max.

[Krissykins]

26 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

 

"Day-and-date streaming releases are the future of cinema! Streaming RULES!"

 

Speaking of streaming, all I’m seeing everywhere the first few weeks of 2023 is “This has been cancelled”, “this has been shelved”, “this has been cancelled despite being filmed”, “second and final season (as if that’s any different to cancelled)”. 
 

 

[Jonan23]

3 hours ago, Danhjpn said:

The movie is going to finish with $2.2B+, top 3 or 4 all time worldwide and people still care about its drop per day.

 

Its dailies are Still the number  I care about most among all the movies in cinemas now