Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[wildphantom]

18 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Speaking of streaming, all I’m seeing everywhere the first few weeks of 2023 is “This has been cancelled”, “this has been shelved”, “this has been cancelled despite being filmed”, “second and final season (as if that’s any different to cancelled)”. 
 

 

Me too. The tables are a turning. 

[Brainbug]

13 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Speaking of streaming, all I’m seeing everywhere the first few weeks of 2023 is “This has been cancelled”, “this has been shelved”, “this has been cancelled despite being filmed”, “second and final season (as if that’s any different to cancelled)”. 
 

 

 

Actually, thats a real danger that filmmakers face when their movies (only) go to streaming plattforms. If the plattform decides that the movie is cancelled or gets rushed out without any real promotion, its a movie that will be forgotten instantly.

 

One of the huge advantages of theatrical releases is that - no matter if the movie in question is good or bad - you as a viewer have to invest time to see it and thus more likely than not remember the experience and the movie itself for quite some time. Watching movies on streaming plattforms often has the opposite effect. No matter if its good or bad, its more likely that you wont remember it a week later because its just another film you watched on Netflix/Amazon Prime etc.

 

Getting a theatrical release in many (ofc not all) cases is a guarantee for movies to not be forgotten in a few weeks/months time und thus the filmmakers involved have a higher chance that their vision for making a movie gets attention and awareness in the wider public.

[JayPrimetown]

17 hours ago, M37 said:

In terms of grossing potential? Yeah, maybe not all that far off, but there's still limited product and weakness in several generes, so ceiling is lower.

 

But when factoring in the massive ATP increase underlying those numbers, admissions are still way down

How can they not be? Every year there are more entertainment options for people. At this point, can just compare the revenue.

 

I do think we start seeing a shift again towards films going to cinema as streamers just aren't getting the return from them as do they do with tv series.

[Mr Roark]

10 hours ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

Some non-believers never learn, Brother Roark.

Jokes aside, the man that created T2, Aliens, Titanic and Avatar, the first director with a $2B+ films takes 10 years of his life to map out and make a sequel to the highest grossing film of all time.

 

If NWH can make $1.9B with omicron spreading then at least a $2B total has always been a no brainer for A2.

[JayPrimetown]

16 hours ago, M37 said:

Plane is like 30% below previous Butler generic action vehicles. That may be “acceptable” in today’s market, but it’s still a drop-off 

 

M3G had a good debut, but horror has generally been fine, though getting there by lower OW/leggier runs. Otto has done very well, but again from a compared to last year not pre-pandemic lens 

 

So while I agree we’re off to a good start compared to 2022 (certainly better than I expected), important to keep perspective on how far below pre-pandemic baseline it remains, especially when looking at admits

Ok but did those other Butler vehicles have any premium screens? Plane has none due to Avatar 2 dominating them all. 

 

That absolutely played a factor in Plane's potential opening weekend number.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

There's barely anything relevant being released until Ant-Man 3, so weekend threads being barren isn't much of a shock.

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, BadOlCatSylvester said:

There's barely anything relevant being released until Ant-Man 3, so weekend threads being barren isn't much of a shock.

 

Knock at The Cabin and 80 for Brady have the potential to be small breakouts though.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Speaking of streaming, all I’m seeing everywhere the first few weeks of 2023 is “This has been cancelled”, “this has been shelved”, “this has been cancelled despite being filmed”, “second and final season (as if that’s any different to cancelled)”. 

The bubble has finally popped. We're even seeing movies which otherwise would've been doomed to be streaming fodder shifting into theatrical releases, like Smile, House Party (even if it flopped anyway and got dumped on demand after its opening weekend), Magic Mike 3 and most recently even Disney's joining in with The Boogeyman. The latter's decision is by far the biggest sign of times changing, as 90% of Fox's slate these days gets dumped on Hulu with little marketing by Disney. If even they are shifting their strategy, that's when you know the game has changed.

[BadOlCatSylvester]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Knock at The Cabin and 80 for Brady have the potential to be small breakouts though.

I do agree about the former, especially if the reviews are good this time, which dampened Old's potential back in 2021.

[Krissykins]

52 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

Actually, thats a real danger that filmmakers face when their movies (only) go to streaming plattforms. If the plattform decides that the movie is cancelled or gets rushed out without any real promotion, its a movie that will be forgotten instantly.

 

One of the huge advantages of theatrical releases is that - no matter if the movie in question is good or bad - you as a viewer have to invest time to see it and thus more likely than not remember the experience and the movie itself for quite some time. Watching movies on streaming plattforms often has the opposite effect. No matter if its good or bad, its more likely that you wont remember it a week later because its just another film you watched on Netflix/Amazon Prime etc.

 

Getting a theatrical release in many (ofc not all) cases is a guarantee for movies to not be forgotten in a few weeks/months time und thus the filmmakers involved have a higher chance that their vision for making a movie gets attention and awareness in the wider public.

That’s what I’ve always said too. Most streaming films have a shelf life of a single weekend. 
 

Theatrical films have an announcement, a teaser, a poster, a full trailer, a release date, marketing, online discussion, a cinema run, box office. Then a PVOD run, a digital run, a physical run, VOD, even airplanes then a streaming run. 
 

That’s why we’re seeing comments in the trade about the theatrical time being basically the start of a marketing campaign. 

[BadOlCatSylvester]

11 hours ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

Some non-believers never learn, Brother Roark.

We Will Send Them The Message... 

 

We Will Teach Them Our Ways!

 

[CJohn]

Its the fucking morning here, where are the numbers?!

[Legion Again]

7 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Its the fucking morning here, where are the numbers?!

Comscore saw puss going below OW and decided 'twas nobler to shut down

[Verrows]

1 hour ago, Brainbug said:

 

Actually, thats a real danger that filmmakers face when their movies (only) go to streaming plattforms. If the plattform decides that the movie is cancelled or gets rushed out without any real promotion, its a movie that will be forgotten instantly.

 

One of the huge advantages of theatrical releases is that - no matter if the movie in question is good or bad - you as a viewer have to invest time to see it and thus more likely than not remember the experience and the movie itself for quite some time. Watching movies on streaming plattforms often has the opposite effect. No matter if its good or bad, its more likely that you wont remember it a week later because its just another film you watched on Netflix/Amazon Prime etc.

 

Getting a theatrical release in many (ofc not all) cases is a guarantee for movies to not be forgotten in a few weeks/months time und thus the filmmakers involved have a higher chance that their vision for making a movie gets attention and awareness in the wider public.

You summed up exactly how Disney devalued its animation brand. Even if a movie does well on streaming there's still the fact that just being a streaming title cheapens the product. Streaming is like the new direct to video. It feels like cheap dollar store versions of the product. Like you said, if someone doesn't have to go out of their way to go to the theatre and watch a movie then what they're watching doesn't feel in memorable in the least, even if it's actually good. Streaming status makes it feel disposable, the kind of thing you're content to let play in the background while you do something else because you can't be bothered to commit to it.

 

It's sad because Disney has released some genuinely good films on Disney+ but they're forgotten and disposed of quicker than far worse films that release in theatres.

[Brainbug]

21 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Its the fucking morning here, where are the numbers?!

 

Puss in Boots grossed so much that they havent been able to count enough of it to give an estimate for Friday.

[Brainbug]

2 minutes ago, Verrows said:

You summed up exactly how Disney devalued its animation brand. Even if a movie does well on streaming there's still the fact that just being a streaming title cheapens the product. Streaming is like the new direct to video. It feels like cheap dollar store versions of the product. Like you said, if someone doesn't have to go out of their way to go to the theatre and watch a movie then what they're watching doesn't feel in memorable in the least, even if it's actually good. Streaming status makes it feel disposable, the kind of thing you're content to let play in the background while you do something else because you can't be bothered to commit to it.

 

It's sad because Disney has released some genuinely good films on Disney+ but they're forgotten and disposed of quicker than far worse films that release in theatres.

 

And in turn this is exactly why movies like Minions: Rise of Gru or Puss in Boots were/are succesfull: They feel like "special" animated movies, almost like events, because theyre only released in cinemas.

 

For as good as it is, i believe Puss in Boots would have been a non-event if it were to be a streaming release. Nobody would have cared or noticed it. But now its a WOM sensation that more and more people check out and thats only possible because its playing in theaters.

[Legion Again]

3 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

And in turn this is exactly why movies like Minions: Rise of Gru or Puss in Boots were/are succesfull: They feel like "special" animated movies, almost like events, because theyre only released in cinemas.

 

For as good as it is, i believe Puss in Boots would have been a non-event if it were to be a streaming release. Nobody would have cared or noticed it. But now its a WOM sensation that more and more people check out and thats only possible because its playing in theaters.

Hmm, going to have to disagree with this pretty strongly. I agree that Disney's distribution has been hurtful the brand some at the BO, but Puss has been available at home for weeks. Quality is the key to being an event regardless of release mode. I mean heck, in Encanto's case it was a non-event in theaters and only became an event when they put it on svod.

[Agafin]

It's noon here and still no numbers. First time I witness this.

[stephanos13]

10 minutes ago, Agafin said:

It's noon here and still no numbers. First time I witness this.

 

Welcome to no new openers weekends. Nothing out of the ordinary.

[Boxofficerules]

This weekend seems deader than a pre marital sex loving counsellor at camp crystal lake.