Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[stuart360]

Just a little shout out to myself and Ironjimbo, who officially bet our accounts on the film hitting 2bil AFTER THE OPENING WEEKEND.

Yes the forum was full of sky people celebrating and doom posting after that domestic and international OW.

People should of had more faith.

 

[IronJimbo]

1 hour ago, stuart360 said:

Just a little shout out to myself and Ironjimbo, who officially bet our accounts on the film hitting 2bil AFTER THE OPENING WEEKEND.

Yes the forum was full of sky people celebrating and doom posting after that domestic and international OW.

People should of had more faith.

 

I think everyone can agree that The Way of Water would be the highest grossing film of all time if we were in the timeline where Covid never happened

[Deep Wang]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I think everyone can agree that The Way of Water would be the highest grossing film of all time if we were in the timeline where Covid never happened

 

If we're being theoretical about different timelines, it's possible that the timeline(s) where COVID never happened, Avatar 1 wasn't a big hit.  Hell it might not have even gotten made!  Movies might not even exist in that universe!

[IronJimbo]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

If we're being theoretical about different timelines, it's possible that the timeline(s) where COVID never happened, Avatar 1 wasn't a big hit.  Hell it might not have even gotten made!  Movies might not even exist in that universe!

deep wang I know you fantasise about that that timeline but come on man, i'm talking about one which split off in early 2020 and movie market continued normal growth from 2020->2023

[M37]

4 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

If we're being theoretical about different timelines, it's possible that the timeline(s) where COVID never happened, Avatar 1 wasn't a big hit.  Hell it might not have even gotten made!  Movies might not even exist in that universe!

Does Contagion?

[Menor the Destroyer]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I think everyone can agree that The Way of Water would be the highest grossing film of all time if we were in the timeline where Covid never happened

...no. There are so many hypotheticals there. Inflation would've been totally different. Competition would've been totally different.

Edited January 24, 2023 by Menor Reborn

[Jonan23]

1 hour ago, IronJimbo said:

I think everyone can agree that The Way of Water would be the highest grossing film of all time if we were in the timeline where Covid never happened

But is Covid still a factor now? Aren't we already in the timeline where Covid is a thing of the past. The only country whose grosses were really affected by Covid is China. 

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, IronJimbo said:

deep wang I know you fantasise about that that timeline but come on man, i'm talking about one which split off in early 2020 and movie market continued normal growth from 2020->2023

 

What?  I love movies, why would I want a timeline where they didn't exist?

 

I'm just joking about the futility of 'what if' regarding Avatar 2.   The first movie had literally all the advantages in the world and this one doesn't.  That's what happens when your boy takes so damn long to make a movie lol.

[Deep Wang]

11 minutes ago, M37 said:

Does Contagion?

 

God, I hope so!  That Cliff Martinez soundtrack 😍

[Mr Roark]

27 minutes ago, Jonan23 said:

But is Covid still a factor now? Aren't we already in the timeline where Covid is a thing of the past. The only country whose grosses were really affected by Covid is China. 

It is because it changed people’s habits.

[Jonan23]

19 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

It is because it changed people’s habits.

For a lot of films definitely. When I glance at the box office from ten years ago I see so many films that would not gross 100 million today. But for a must see at the cinema blockbuster like Avatar. I don't think the non covid timeline would be any different. A healthy China and 2.7 Billion total

[LinksterAC]

1 hour ago, Jonan23 said:

But is Covid still a factor now? Aren't we already in the timeline where Covid is a thing of the past. The only country whose grosses were really affected by Covid is China. 

You don't understand, it would have made 1.1B in China if not for COVID.

 

Ahem.

[LinksterAC]

43 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

It is because it changed people’s habits.

It may have, but it's unclear to me that this has had an effect on the ceiling for tentpole films.

[John Marston]

2 hours ago, Mr Roark said:

It is because it changed people’s habits.

 

 

no evidence yet of this. Most movies flopping these days are films that are just generating no interest

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

no evidence yet of this. Most movies flopping these days are films that are just generating no interest

 

This. We keep hearing about mythical changed habits yet franchises are the most habit-driven of all movies and that habit didn't change one bit. 

[Torontofan]

covid is still an issue to like 10-15% of the population (especially in places that did many covid rules like NYC, cali and canada) still dont go out as much as before and still worried.

 

Add in that covid drastically expanded use of streaming to many groups so many poeple dont see the point of seeing smaller scale films in theaters.

 

Like in many markets there is now this trend of "this is a movie for streaming then theaters"

 

Like why I would 18 bucks to watch avatar and 18 bucks for some generic comedy that be on streaming in 2 months.

[LinksterAC]

14 minutes ago, Torontofan said:

covid is still an issue to like 10-15% of the population (especially in places that did many covid rules like NYC, cali and canada) still dont go out as much as before and still worried.

 

Add in that covid drastically expanded use of streaming to many groups so many poeple dont see the point of seeing smaller scale films in theaters.

 

Like in many markets there is now this trend of "this is a movie for streaming then theaters"

 

Like why I would 18 bucks to watch avatar and 18 bucks for some generic comedy that be on streaming in 2 months.

Good post, though I'll make the following comment:

 

I live & travel all over COVID hypochondriac USA (the USA West Coast) & I doubt it's even 10 to 15 percent at this point. If it is, it seems very possible to me it's comprised of people who probably were homebodies before COVID anyway. I doubt COVID *itself* is affecting moviegoing habits.

 

That said, this doesn't mean habits didn't change during the pandemic for many. Along those lines, I do think that the rest of your post makes a lot of sense. I think there's a good chance that a strata of films (romcoms, character driven dramas) that people are less likely to go see in the movies now due to the reasoning you illustrate. But for other films (tentpole spectacles, kid's films), that reasoning seems considerably less relevant, & I doubt there is a significant effect on moviegoing habits.

Edited January 24, 2023 by LinksterAC

[Ronin46]

Is this movie an event? (superhero). Does the communal setting enhance the movie experience? (horror). Do I know what I am getting?, does it have something I love or have nostalgia for? (sequel, book, known IP)

 

Everything else is a hard slog.

[mike&night]

Can the best picture nomination & the news that it crossed $2B help Avatar at the box office? 

[Borobudur]

6 minutes ago, mike&night said:

Can the best picture nomination & the news that it crossed $2B help Avatar at the box office? 

Unable to quantify but surely a positive thing for Avatar 2.