Weekend Thread | Estimates: Avatar 19.7, Puss 11.5, M3GAN 9.8, Missing 9.3, Otto 9

[IronJimbo]

37 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

called this one

[MovieMan89]

Considering I don’t know anyone who I could pay to see 3D with me anymore, honestly a higher share of 3D than I would have even thought. But guessing OS audiences are still more willing with 3D, and still much much lower than A1s share. Which means the gap between admissions isn’t going to be as big as some would think, despite inflation. 

[Verrows]

9 minutes ago, IronJimbo said:

called this one

I wonder what the 3D share of the domestic gross is.

[hw64]

7 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Failing to see how 700 is in trouble for A2 yet? Are y’all expecting horrible late legs in spite of the competition remaining incredibly weak overall, Ant Man aside? I do agree TGM is looking dicey now, but let’s see the Sat/Sun first. 

 

Not horrible, just not the exceptional late legs it'd need to get to $700m.

 

Gross will be circa-$600m through Monday with the last 7 days (Tue-Mon) being around $29m.

 

Weekly 25% drops from here gets it to 3x that number, so $87m, taking the total to $687m or so. Still not enough.

[MovieMan89]

Considering average ticket price is around 20% higher than when A1 was out, but A2 3D share is looking to be around 25% lower, I’d wager you could almost just look at the unadjusted grosses to get a pretty accurate idea of the admissions gap between the two. So if A1 does 700+ DOM, the admissions drop off was extremely impressive. 

[XXRDJisDoctorDoom]

2 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Considering average ticket price is around 20% higher than when A1 was out, but A2 3D share is looking to be around 25% lower, I’d wager you could almost just look at the unadjusted grosses to get a pretty accurate idea of the admissions gap between the two. So if A1 does 700+ DOM, the admissions drop off was extremely impressive. 

 

A1 first run was around 67-70M admits. A2 at $700M will be about 48-50M which is a ~30% decrease. 

[chaos]

I)

11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Failing to see how 700 is in trouble for A2 yet? Are y’all expecting horrible late legs in spite of the competition remaining incredibly weak overall, Ant Man aside? I do agree TGM is looking dicey now, but let’s see the Sat/Sun first. 

 

Its dicey since the beginning - and I have no idea how this is going on further - 650 is the lower end, and Tom "Maverick" Cruise is in (a far distant) reach..

 

I made a math mistake comparing A2 to Titanic or Endgame.  Its more like 25/75.

 

2.4 - 2.5B are more likely

 

 

 

 

[MovieMan89]

5 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

A1 first run was around 67-70M admits. A2 at $700M will be about 48-50M which is a ~30% decrease. 

No way that math adds up with the average ticket price increase and the 3D decrease. Unless you’re implying PLF was astronomically higher than A1, which I’d need the facts to believe considering A1 was a PLF monster. 
 

Edit: how are you getting those ranges 

Edited January 21, 2023 by MovieMan89

[interiorgatordecorator]

6 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

A1 first run was around 67-70M admits. A2 at $700M will be about 48-50M which is a ~30% decrease. 

 

charlie had 75.1 before the 2022 re-release

i assume 1.5 came from the 2010 re-relase

[hw64]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

No way that math adds up with the average ticket price increase and the 3D decrease. Unless you’re implying PLF was astronomically higher than A1, which I’d need the facts to believe considering A1 was a PLF monster. 

 

He's right. ATP for Avatar was around $10 compared to the Q4 2009 average of $7.61. Avatar 2's average ticket price is very likely $14+, so it'll end up at around 48 million admissions compared to Avatar's mid-70M tickets, say like 73-76.

[MovieMan89]

I forgot about the reports of what ATP currently is. Still seems dicey to try to guess wo official updates like we used to get. I also think A2 final 3D share DOM is lucky if it hits 50%, hopefully we get data. 

[chaos]

5 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

A1 first run was around 67-70M admits. A2 at $700M will be about 48-50M which is a ~30% decrease. 

 

 

Different times.

Aside the brilliant Telesync version, that is allegedly available since December 24th, many people wait to see it at home, thx to streaming habits.

 

Cinema is not dying, but its getting harder every year.

Maverick and A2 are proof, that Cinema is the only way to get most out of a new Film.

[MovieMan89]

Honestly, we need Cameron to give us admission stats for both movies. I wouldnt at all be surprised if everyone is drastically off on both considering how many factors are at play with both A1 and A2s grosses. 

[hw64]

1 minute ago, MovieMan89 said:

I forgot about the reports of what ATP currently is. Still seems dicey to try to guess wo official updates like we used to get. I also think A2 final 3D share DOM is lucky if it hits 50%, hopefully we get data. 

 

19 minutes ago, Verrows said:

I wonder what the 3D share of the domestic gross is.

 

3D revenue shares through MLK weekend:

Domestic: 58% of $576m.

International (without China): 54% of $1.13b.

China: 99% of $224m.

[chaos]

5 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

Honestly, we need Cameron to give us admission stats for both movies. I wouldnt at all be surprised if everyone is drastically off on both considering how many factors are at play with both A1 and A2s grosses. 

 

of course admission are way down  -  cinema is (very slowly) dying/decreasing.

 

It does since the 90ies

[Ken]

I wasn't following much box office or Avatar discussions back in 2010-14, so does anyone remember when exactly people (beyond the Cameron cult) grew less impressed with the first movie and got tired of hearing about the sequels' development?
I feel it had to have been around the time The Hobbit movies were being released and The Force Awakens was gearing up, but I'd be curious if the "no cultural impact" stuff settled before then.
I know that things will be different this time around, now that we know the next movie is actually coming up soon.

[chaos]

Avatar never made a "cultural impact", like LOTR or Star Wars movies.

It was just a wonderful way to escape reality and visit another world in a never seen way.

2.5 hours vacation on Pandora for only 15 bucks.

 

History repeats itself.. 

 

[Flip]

Wonder why China 3D share is 99%, maybe it's almost only playing on 3D screens?

[SchumacherFTW]

13 minutes ago, Ken said:

I wasn't following much box office or Avatar discussions back in 2010-14, so does anyone remember when exactly people (beyond the Cameron cult) grew less impressed with the first movie and got tired of hearing about the sequels' development?
I feel it had to have been around the time The Hobbit movies were being released and The Force Awakens was gearing up, but I'd be curious if the "no cultural impact" stuff settled before then.
I know that things will be different this time around, now that we know the next movie is actually coming up soon.

By new years 2010 I was already being told it was overrated and that Sherlock Holmes was better

Edited January 21, 2023 by SchumacherFTW

[Jiffy]

1 hour ago, titanic2187 said:

That just great but not exceptional Friday hold for Avatar 2 basically seal the below TGM deal, even 700m become very tough threshold to hit. I am still thinking $680m. Hope $2bn headline and Oscar nomination boost some positive buzz back to the film.  

Would need to hope it hangs on and actually still gets nominated in Best Picture first.