Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[Eric Burnett]

1 hour ago, Krissykins said:

Ironic that I put Infinity Pool in the thread title and they didn’t even provide Friday numbers lol

 

What should I change it to? 

I changed it for you. We good.

[Ronin46]

What about Women Talking expanding? Any numbers anywhere?

[CaptNathanBrittles]

38 minutes ago, titanic2187 said:

Judging from the release strategy post-Covid, we can safely say the Oscar bump is officially extinct. No one including Steven Spielberg willing to wait that long to home media market until Oscar nomination. In the past Oscar nomination was used to boost box office but now the focus is to boost viewership (See how all nominees jump in VOD chart) while theatrical run is mostly serve as alternative for niche audience.   

 

Luckily we have some last awesome Oscar bump moment before Covid with Parasite, 1917. In fact, I would say Avatar 2 could be the only movie that still stay at number 1 after Oscar nomination day in a decade to come. 

 

And A2 would have stayed #1 whether it got an Oscar nomination or not.

[wildphantom]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

OT: I saw The Menu on HBOMax last night.  I'm still actually processing the movie.  Its foodie elements are spectacular, its build of tension and horror is sublime, BUT it's got elements of why the F is that going on, too.  I both loved it (yes, I'm a foodie, so this is wheelhouse for me) and was confused and didn't buy other parts of it.  But, it was so new and so weirdly exciting.

 

So, I think overall I give it a B. I think it's worthy of a Top 25 year end slot for 2022 b/c it was not a super, it had no powers, it didn't even have supernatural elements...it just was what it was...and I almost fully bought it, but I couldn't quite get there.

 

I wish it did better in theaters, but if not, I hope it takes off in streaming...

it did well enough in cinemas for word of mouth to be meteoric before it went on streaming. One look at the amount of reviews it’s got on Letterboxd tells you how much people are watching and recommending it.  If they’d run a better campaign then I think the movie would have picked up a few Oscar nods too.  I found it superior to Triangle of Sadness which has similar things to say. 
 

I’ve had countless people in my office talking about it. As they have Barbarian, which was similarly timed. 
 

Glad you enjoyed it. I thought it was terrific.  

[narniadis]

12 minutes ago, wildphantom said:

it did well enough in cinemas for word of mouth to be meteoric before it went on streaming. One look at the amount of reviews it’s got on Letterboxd tells you how much people are watching and recommending it.  If they’d run a better campaign then I think the movie would have picked up a few Oscar nods too.  I found it superior to Triangle of Sadness which has similar things to say. 
 

I’ve had countless people in my office talking about it. As they have Barbarian, which was similarly timed. 
 

Glad you enjoyed it. I thought it was terrific.  

Same, wife and I watched it last week (and Violent Night last night) and thought it was great. Definitely in the upper set of my 2022 films so far. 

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, Eric Slay said:

I changed it for you. We good.

Thank you! 

[1Robert1]

6 hours ago, kayumanggi said:

 

i have no idea how they can predict 110 for m3gan, 90-95 is more possible. 

[TheFlatLannister]

I would love for M3GAN to get to $100M DOM

 

But doesn't that seem a bit too far, now? 

[chaos]

A2 is the highest crossing movie here, and there is a lot of room to fill..

 

2,5Bio ?

[filmscholar]

"Avatar 2" just can't be stopped.  These numbers overall are crazy.   But it's domestic was probably hurt more by competition.  In fairness, "Top Gun" had a lot of comp too.  But "No Way Home" blew the competition away domestically.   Those are the 3 Biggest Domestic Films post pandemic.    I think "Puss in Boots" has turned into a huge surprise domestically.   The fact they haven't made a "Shrek 5" they are leaving big money on the table.   "Megan" is also one of the nice surprises, over 100 Domestic I did not expect for that.   

Edited January 28, 2023 by filmscholar

[dignam]

15 minutes ago, filmscholar said:

"Avatar 2" just can't be stopped.  These numbers overall are crazy.   But it's domestic was probably hurt more by competition.  In fairness, "Top Gun" had a lot of comp too.  But "No Way Home" blew the competition away domestically.   Those are the 3 Biggest Domestic Films post pandemic.    I think "Puss in Boots" has turned into a huge surprise domestically.   The fact they haven't made a "Shrek 5" they are leaving big money on the table.   "Megan" is also one of the nice surprises, over 100 Domestic I did not expect for that.   

 

Shrek 5 was teased in PIB. 

[XXR vs XXR]

30 minutes ago, chaos said:

A2 is the highest crossing movie here, and there is a lot of room to fill..

 

2,5Bio ?

 

$2.3-2.375B

[chaos]

10 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

$2.3-2.375B

Yes, seem legit from an usual US standpoint, but the International numbers are still crazy.

It could end up with a 24/76 ratio

 

Edited January 28, 2023 by chaos

[GOGODanca]

Next week we should be getting deadline early estimates again

[stuart360]

24 minutes ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

$2.3-2.375B

Its pretty clear to me that the film would of been challenging the orig AVATAR, and 3bil, if covid hadnt ravaged China (and if the pandemic never happaened at all, it would of probably blown past 3bil).).

Edited January 28, 2023 by stuart360

[XXR vs XXR]

13 minutes ago, chaos said:

Yes, seem legit from an usual US standpoint, but the International numbers are still crazy.

It could end up with a 24/76 ratio

 

 

Nah it can't end up at that ratio. OS numbers are good but not that good. That would put the WW total at nearly $2.8B with a $670M DOM. 

[Eric Burnett]

 

🤔

[kayumanggi]

2 hours ago, 1Robert1 said:

i have no idea how they can predict 110 for m3gan, 90-95 is more possible. 

 

Yeah. But I hope it crawls to $100M.

[filmlover]

4 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

What about Women Talking expanding? Any numbers anywhere?

Hollywood Reporter says $1.1M for the weekend from 707 theaters. I saw it this afternoon in a practically sold out auditorium (albeit a smaller one) while the main afternoon showings for Banshees and Tar had barely sold anything when I checked them so I'm guessing it'll benefit from being the newest of all the BP nominees and the only one besides Avatar that remains a theatrical exclusive (for another 2-3 weeks, I'm guessing).

Edited January 29, 2023 by filmlover

[Ronin46]

40 minutes ago, filmlover said:

Hollywood Reporter says $1.1M for the weekend from 707 theaters. I saw it this afternoon in a practically sold out auditorium (albeit a smaller one) while the main afternoon showings for Banshees and Tar had barely sold anything when I checked them so I'm guessing it'll benefit from being the newest of all the BP nominees and the only one besides Avatar that remains a theatrical exclusive (for another 2-3 weeks, I'm guessing).

 

So guessing a 5-6M domestic total when its finished.