Weekend Thread - Jan 27th-29th | Estimates - Avatar 15.7, Puss 10.6, Otto 6.75, M3GAN 6.37, Pathaan 5.95 | The Way of Water is the fourth-biggest movie of all time! Eleventh DOM! Zoe Saldana the GOAT

[chaos]

10 hours ago, baumer said:

So where does everyone see Avatar part 2 landing on the worldwide box office chart?

 

It's obviously going to pass Titanic and I don't think it's going to get to End Game but do you think it's got a chance at 2.5 billion? I'm asking with complete ignorance I honestly haven't been paying attention to the box office as close as you guys do so what are you guys think?

 

 

@ baumer

I member U, from so many years ago...

 

domestic is pretty much set, but International has a lot of juice left.

2,4 + is very likely

 

 

 

[Danhjpn]

3 hours ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

$2.3-2.375B

Is that enough to prevent Titanic from topping it again after the re release?

[Cheddar Please]

1/24	6,471,312	604,880,771	-52.59%
1/27	16,200,000	621,080,771	-19.54%
1/31	4,700,000	625,780,771	-27.37%
2/03	12,400,000	638,180,771	-23.46%
2/07	3,500,000	641,680,771	-25.53%
2/10	9,000,000	650,680,771	-27.42%	Titanic Rerelease
2/14	2,500,000	653,180,771	-28.57%	Valentine's Day
2/17	5,500,000	658,680,771	-38.89%	Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd
2/21	2,325,000	661,005,771	-7.00%	President's Day
2/24	2,700,000	663,705,771	-50.91%
2/28	1,000,000	664,705,771	-56.99%
TOTAL	12,000,000	676,705,771

 

Made some edits to the chart this week, looks like stronger weekends than I previously expected, but also slightly weaker weekdays, still looking at a range of 665-685m final, although that could potentially change that if the next 2 weeks hold as well as this one 

Edited January 29, 2023 by Cheddar Please

[DTP]

Today the Avatar franchise passes $5 billion at the global box office.  

[corngrower87]

10 minutes ago, Cheddar Please said:

1/24	6,471,312	604,880,771	-52.59%
1/27	16,200,000	621,080,771	-19.54%
1/31	4,700,000	625,780,771	-27.37%
2/03	12,400,000	638,180,771	-23.46%
2/07	3,500,000	641,680,771	-25.53%
2/10	9,000,000	650,680,771	-27.42%	Titanic Rerelease
2/14	2,500,000	653,180,771	-28.57%	Valentine's Day
2/17	5,500,000	658,680,771	-38.89%	Ant-Man OW + President's Day Wknd
2/21	2,325,000	661,005,771	-7.00%	President's Day
2/24	2,700,000	663,705,771	-50.91%
2/28	1,000,000	664,705,771	-56.99%
TOTAL	12,000,000	676,705,771

 

Made some edits to the chart this week, looks like stronger weekends than I previously expected, but also slightly weaker weekdays, still looking at a range of 665-685m final, although that could potentially change that if the next 2 weeks hold as well as this one 

I think it will have a sharper drop next week than what you have penciled in just because it’s losing a decent amount of PLFs.  

[Cheddar Please]

Just now, corngrower87 said:

I think it will have a sharper drop next week than what you have penciled in just because it’s losing a decent amount of PLFs.  

Probably, I do think Titanic and Ant-Man will mark the end of this run of good holds, but given the fact that this weekend could be a sub-20 drop, and given that these weekends have been performing better than my expectations almost every time, I'm cautious about penciling in steeper drops too early.

[XXR & Friends]

54 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

Is that enough to prevent Titanic from topping it again after the re release?

 

I'm not really sure how big the re-release is supposed to be worldwide but I'm hearing it's going to be relatively small so $2.35B is probably enough.

[Issac Newton]

Deadline - Avengers: Endgame is No. 2 worldwide with $2.799B.

 

Come on, give $1M to it... 

[titanic2187]

5 hours ago, Ronin46 said:

 

So guessing a 5-6M domestic total when its finished.

From BO performance of this year nominees like Tar, The Fabelmans and Banshees, Licorice Pizza did very good by comparison, proving that theatrical exclusive still matters.  

[TRISTAN]

14 hours ago, TheFlatLannister said:

 

I have no idea how it didn't get an A+ cinemascore 

 

Breathtaking animation, awesome villain, great side characters 

Missing the donkey from Shrek which knocked down the comedy value considerably.

[Caylu]

14 hours ago, rolandka19 said:

https://deadline.com/2023/01/box-office-avatar-the-way-of-water-infinity-pool-cronenberg-1235243380/

 

Who saw the Bollywood action film Pathaan landing at #5 for the weekend based on its estimated Friday number of $1.87 million (with a $8.4 million (!!!) 5-day total). I sure didn't.

 

Crazy impressive - I'm seeing a lot of nearly-full and even some sellouts in the major cities. In my local town of less than 50,000 people here in central PA, the next two showings are nearly sold out. 

 

Imagine how much this film would have grossed if it had been in 2,000 + locations - it could have made it to #2 or $3 behind Avatar!

 

Should Day 3 of Pathan not Thursday?

and Day 4 as Friday?

 

 

[Immortal]

3 minutes ago, Caylu said:

 

Should Day 3 of Pathan not Thursday?

and Day 4 as Friday?

 

 

These are Sat nums (2.65 mil)

Edited January 29, 2023 by Immortal
clarify

[Danhjpn]

8 hours ago, Danhjpn said:

Is that enough to prevent Titanic from topping it again after the re release?

 

7 hours ago, XXR You Ok Annie said:

 

I'm not really sure how big the re-release is supposed to be worldwide but I'm hearing it's going to be relatively small so $2.35B is probably enough.

 

What are Your prediction about DOM and OS final number? 

[XXR & Friends]

55 minutes ago, Danhjpn said:

 

 

What are Your prediction about DOM and OS final number? 

675 + 1665

[Caylu]

2 hours ago, Immortal said:

These are Sat nums (2.65 mil)

I thought 2.65mil is for Friday and 1.86 is for Thursday. 

 

[Mr Roark]

16 hours ago, IronJimbo said:

Endgame WW: $2.799b

Endgame WW - China: $2.167b

Endgame WW - China - Russia: $2.121b

 

A2 WW: $2.074b

A2 WW - China: $1.834b

A2 WW - China - Russia: $1.834b

 

Can A2 beat Endgame minus China, or minus (China + Russia)?

I think it has a chance to beat Endgame -C -R. It needs roughly a $2.4B total… it’s gonna be scary close anyway and if it fails bad ER and Japan are the one to “blame”…

[efialtes76]

8 minutes ago, Caylu said:

I thought 2.65mil is for Friday and 1.86 is for Thursday. 

 

$1.86m Friday 

$2.86m Saturday 

 

[JustLurking]

16 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

I think it has a chance to beat Endgame -C -R. It needs roughly a $2.4B total… it’s gonna be scary close anyway and if it fails bad ER and Japan are the one to “blame”…

I mean, endgame itself wasn't exactly a behemoth in Japan

[IronJimbo]

17 minutes ago, Mr Roark said:

I think it has a chance to beat Endgame -C -R. It needs roughly a $2.4B total… it’s gonna be scary close anyway and if it fails bad ER and Japan are the one to “blame”…

will be around 2.37b for -C -R, and 2.41b for -C.

[Mr Roark]

36 minutes ago, JustLurking said:

I mean, endgame itself wasn't exactly a behemoth in Japan

Japan is the only market where A2 tanked.