THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, YM! said:

I was very well behaved going out as a kid, even when I was a toddler. My parents can only recall one tantrum in public and that was when I was a toddler. I was told to behave or we won’t go back. Like I was told when we to ToysRUs when we could get a toy or just looking and I was keep a straight face the whole time.

 

Then again, I was an easy kid.

 

 

I was easy too.

 

Just leave me with my laundry basket full of Transformers and I was gucci.

[Skim Beeble]

Just realized the 5-day debut record adjusted for inflation is Revenge of the Fallen with $280m which is just wild to me. 

[stuart360]

I think the last 10-15 years has clouded judgments in terms of whats a big number these days.

Even 500mil domestic has only been hit 18 times, and 12 times for 600mil.

These numbers are still very hard to hit, and any film hitting 500mil should be seen as nothing but a massive hit.

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, spizzer said:

 

 

Math totally checks out.

Thisi s like Disney not trying to get too hyped over tfa OW....

Those figures make no sense....unless their expecting a total flat line....not seeing that at  all in the tracking thread. Quite the opposite.

[spizzer]

1 minute ago, screambaby said:

Thisi s like Disney not trying to get too hyped over tfa OW....

Those figures make no sense....unless their expecting a total flat line....not seeing that at  all in the tracking thread. Quite the opposite.

 

They need $9M in refunds in order for those figures to work.  92M 3-day + 58M 2 Day = 150M, but they're saying 141M lol.

[TheFlatLannister]

14 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

 

Its not getting 225mil OW, and its a 5 day opening anyway.

 

The film wont be within 150mil of A2 domestic, or a billion WW.

 

Why are people losing all logic over this movie lol?

I was referring to the domestic gross only (hence the $225M) 

 

Unless we are expecting CBM legs (2.5x) It has a very good chance at $680M+ (assuming it does open $225M) 

 

[charlie Jatinder]

1 hour ago, TheFlatLannister said:

$225M+ OW, Strong WOM, and it only needs a 3x multi...Yeah Avatar 2 might be going down

It will be 10-20% bigger than A2 in admits

 

[TheFlatLannister]

11 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

Yeah but we get multiple big opening films every year, and people dont lose logic as much as with this film for some reason.

 

Anyway I'm going to get my long term predicitions in before reality dawns in the coming weeks -

 

450-500mil US

900-1bil WW.

 

Now bring on the smilies!.

There isn't a chance Mario goes below $1B with a $350M+ OW WW 

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I was referring to the domestic gross only (hence the $225M) 

 

Unless we are expecting CBM legs (2.5x) It has a very good chance at $680M+ (assuming it does open $225M) 

 

2.5x legs over a 5 day OW is a very decent multi and far from CBM legs

 

It would be 3.4x of it´s 3-day OW which is kinda the normal for these big openers with great reception

[charlie Jatinder]

43 minutes ago, efialtes76 said:

Because Zootopia,Raya,The Boss Baby,Home, Rio 2... decreased after God's Friday

 

 

Sure it can drop but for that FRI need to be 60M, I expect 53m+ FRI and 5% ish growth on SAT

[interiorgatordecorator]

3 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It will be 10-20% bigger than A2 in admits

 

 

can someone turn that into a gross in dollars?

 

[stuart360]

2 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I was referring to the domestic gross only (hence the $225M) 

 

Unless we are expecting CBM legs (2.5x) It has a very good chance at $680M+ (assuming it does open $225M) 

 

But where is the 225 number coming from?, thats not what sites are reporting. And again its a 5 day number, not 3.

225mil would meana what?, 160mil normal weekend?.

And even then it would still need slightly over 3x legs off a 225mil 5 day opening to beat A2, and 3x legs off that big an opening is not the norm.

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

I think the last 10-15 years has clouded judgments in terms of whats a big number these days.

Even 500mil domestic has only been hit 18 times, and 12 times for 600mil.

These numbers are still very hard to hit, and any film hitting 500mil should be seen as nothing but a massive hit.

 

Nah only 4 movies have crossed 1 billion since covid hit.

 

And Mario has a shot a being the 2nd or 3rd biggest animated movie in history (in North America).

 

This is an event for kids' movies and for the post-covid era.

[Mango]

28 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Zelda can be a live action giga monster if it has Tom Holland as Link, Zendaya as Zelda levels of fancasting and a pretty solid script (which is doable as it has lore unlike Mario).

Idk about the casting there but a live action Zelda could work, but you have to have a writer/director that cares deeply about the source material. A Zelda movie is not an easy task to get right. Ocarina of Time would be the  ideal template for the film, but getting it right is going to be a lot of work.

[ThomasNicole]

i swear this is exactly what twitter is looking like this week lol 

 

even elon musk entered the rotten tomatoes discussion 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[interiorgatordecorator]

9 minutes ago, charlie Jatinder said:

It will be 10-20% bigger than A2 in admits

 

 

think avatar is at around 42 million admits at a 16 atp

Mario probably has an 11-12 atp right?

if it gets to 500 it should catch avatar in admits, so here charlie is giving a 500-600 range I guess

 

Edited April 7, 2023 by interiorgatordecorator

[Deep Wang]

1 minute ago, stuart360 said:

But where is the 225 number coming from?, thats not what sites are reporting. And again its a 5 day number, not 3.

225mil would meana what?, 160mil normal weekend?.

And even then it would still need slightly over 3x legs off a 225mil 5 day opening to beat A2, and 3x legs off that big an opening is not the norm.

 

Ah, see.  This is where I got in trouble last year, remember?  I was all, "5x is impossible from $100m+ ow!"

 

That happened TWICE!

[ThomasNicole]

4 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Nah only 4 movies have crossed 1 billion since covid hit.

 

And Mario has a shot a being the 2nd or 3rd biggest animated movie in history (in North America).

 

This is an event for kids' movies and for the post-covid era.

i think Minions 2 was the actual big post covid event for kids movies, but yeah Mario is doubling down on it 

 

and Illumination is probably finishing some exceptional deals as we speak while Disney is probably trying to buy some games right to make an animation for them

Edited April 7, 2023 by ThomasNicole

[KP1025]

7 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

I was referring to the domestic gross only (hence the $225M) 

 

Unless we are expecting CBM legs (2.5x) It has a very good chance at $680M+ (assuming it does open $225M) 

 

 

I would say that would be quite difficult actually, though not impossible. Even Incredibles 2 only managed a 2.6x off its 5-day number ($233 million), and that was considered great legs for the size of its opening (3.3x its 3-day OW). The 2.5x number for CBMs is also referring to their 3-day mutiplier, not 5-day. A 2.5x multiplier for a 5-day number like Mario's would be considered good. 

[TheFlatLannister]

1 minute ago, ThomasNicole said:

2.5x legs over a 5 day OW is a very decent multi and far from CBM legs

 

It would be 3.4x of it´s 3-day OW which is kinda the normal for these big openers with great reception

All indications are pointing to strong WOM. Couple that with no direct competition until June and I could see a 4.5x multi of the 3 day ($150M) 

 

Frozen 2 had a 3.8x multi off of a $127M 3 day (A- Cinemascore)