THE SUPER MARIO BROS MOVIE WEEKEND THREAD

[stuart360]

1 minute ago, Deep Wang said:

 

Ah, see.  This is where I got in trouble last year, remember?  I was all, "5x is impossible from $100m+ ow!"

 

That happened TWICE!

Yeah and the only 2 times in movie history.

 

And i'm not saying its impossible to get 3x legs off 200+mil opening, i just said its not the norm, which it isnt.

[VanillaSkies]

54 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Seeing movies like Mario in the theater is always a nice reaffirmation that I never, ever, ever want to have kids in my life.

that’s why my friends and I chose the 18+ VIP showing for 4pm this afternoon. No kids and we are all having edibles (legal in Canada) beforehand. Gonna be fun 🤩 

[screambaby]

11 minutes ago, spizzer said:

 

They need $9M in refunds in order for those figures to work.  92M 3-day + 58M 2 Day = 150M, but they're saying 141M lol.

It's the new math...

[JustLurking]

This is a crazy opening, goddamn

[Deep Wang]

Just now, stuart360 said:

Yeah and the only 2 times in movie history.

 

I know, that's why it's so funny! 

[interiorgatordecorator]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

All indications are pointing to strong WOM. Couple that with no direct competition until June and I could see a 4.5x multi of the 3 day ($150M) 

 

Frozen 2 had a 3.8x multi off of a $127M 3 day (A- Cinemascore)

 

 

 4.5 is dramatically harder than a holiday-boosted 3.8

[TheFlatLannister]

7 minutes ago, stuart360 said:

But where is the 225 number coming from?, thats not what sites are reporting. And again its a 5 day number, not 3.

225mil would meana what?, 160mil normal weekend?.

And even then it would still need slightly over 3x legs off a 225mil 5 day opening to beat A2, and 3x legs off that big an opening is not the norm.

I'm under the assumption Keyser's quote "I think both of them could hit something crazy like 225m" happens...

 

It probably won't hit $225M but I was saying if it does hit that number I don't think A2 is safe. 

 

Off a $150M+ 3 day it would only need a 4.5x multi and Mario is going to be a WOM monster 

[Eric is Anxious]

3 minutes ago, VanillaSkies said:

that’s why my friends and I chose the 18+ VIP showing for 4pm this afternoon. No kids and we are all having edibles (legal in Canada) beforehand. Gonna be fun 🤩 

Man I wish we had that in America. Adult-only screenings seem like a dream come true.

[grey ghost]

4 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

i think Minions 2 was the actual big post covid event for kids movies, but yeah Mario is doubling down on it 

 

and Illumination is probably finishing some exceptional deals as we speak while Disney is probably trying to buy some games right to make an animation for them

 

Bear with me but...

 

What if Disney bought the movie rights to Naruto and DBZ? 

 

Manga is now more popular than comics.

[ThomasNicole]

1 minute ago, TheFlatLannister said:

All indications are pointing to strong WOM. Couple that with no direct competition until June and I could see a 4.5x multi of the 3 day ($150M) 

 

Frozen 2 had a 3.8x multi off of a $127M 3 day (A- Cinemascore)

 

Frozen 2 was 3.6x actually and i really think thanksgiving and christmas saves that multi tbh

 

i´m expecting 550-600M for Mario, on the high end that would be 3.7 - 3.8x of it´s 3-day OW which is great and the normal for very well received big animations out of that year end theatrical windows, i´m expecting this exactly because the WOM is strong for Mario, otherwise i think 500M would be the ceiling

 

But it can go higher of course, it just seems a less likely scenario to me, it happened with TGM for example that opened big and get an insane multi after that, but that seems like a lightning in a bottle situation. A2 had a great multi as well but it´s christmas so it´s not really the same case

[screambaby]

Box office mojo hilariously has Mario's international gross as 7 hundred and 88 dollars

[ThomasNicole]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

Bear with me but...

 

What if Disney bought the movie rights to Naruto and DBZ? 

 

Manga is now more popular than comics.

I would bet on this tbh, i´m sure they´re desperate right now 

 

And it could work if well done [but manga fans are way more hard to please than Nintendo fans so it would be tricky]

[Issac Newton]

All Releases

DOMESTIC (100%)
$31,702,735

INTERNATIONAL (–)
$788

WORLDWIDE
$31,703,523

[Issac Newton]

4 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Box office mojo hilariously has Mario's international gross as 7 hundred and 88 dollars

Asia Pacific

Area	Release Date	Opening	Gross
New Zealand	Apr 5, 2023	–	$788

[screambaby]

Just now, Issac Newton said:

Asia Pacific

Area	Release Date	Opening	Gross
New Zealand	Apr 5, 2023	–	$788

Lol they are super lazy

[grey ghost]

3 minutes ago, ThomasNicole said:

I would bet on this tbh, i´m sure they´re desperate right now 

 

And it could work if well done [but manga fans are way more hard to please than Nintendo fans so it would be tricky]

 

I think if they were loyal to the source material like Illumination did with Mario they could be huge.

 

Right now anime adaptations are the red headed step children of Hollywood like video game adaptations used to be.

[KP1025]

9 minutes ago, TheFlatLannister said:

Off a $150M+ 3 day it would only need a 4.5x multi and Mario is going to be a WOM monster 

 

Not saying this is impossible as history is meant to be defied, but only two movies (TGM and Avatar 2) have ever gotten a multiplier higher than 4x after opening over $100 million 3-day. I wouldn't bet on it personally, but we'll know by the end of next weekend if those kind of legs are in play or if it will follow a more reasonable trajectory. 

[TwoMisfits]

13 minutes ago, Eric is Gay for Bowser said:

Man I wish we had that in America. Adult-only screenings seem like a dream come true.

 

Those were the Tuesday midnight Mario showings...although if you pick a weekday 10pm showing next week, you'll get the same...

[ringedmortality]

Will this be enough to get a best picture nomination

[Eric is Anxious]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

Those were the Tuesday midnight Mario showings...although if you pick a weekday 10pm showing next week, you'll get the same...

Sadly I work overnights and even on my days off, my local theaters only do 10PM showings on Friday and Saturday. So I'm SOL in that regard.