Weekdays Thread | April 10 - 13 | Thursday Numbers | 9.87M THE SUPER MARIO BROS. MOVIE | 1.04M JOHN WICK IV | 1.02M AIR | 0.96M D&D

[Spidey Freak]

11 hours ago, grey ghost said:

This summer looks bananas. 🍌

 

What will break out? What will flop?

 

IMO Elementals seems to be most likely to flop. Transformers might underwhelm too but only because the market is stacked.

 

I think Spider-Verse, MI7 and Barbie will be the breakouts but let's see.

 

The Little Mermaid, Indy 5, The Flash and Oppenheimer are all wildcards. 

Edited April 12, 2023 by Spidey Freak

[RandomCat]

I think all Indy needs is a wiff of good reviews and it does great.

[kayumanggi]

I hope ELEMENTALS doesn't flop.

[thajdikt]

I beg for Elementals to be a banger and get great reviews

[screambaby]

1 hour ago, Maggie said:

I hope Oppenheimer doesn't flop

I was doubtful about t succeeding and then I heard it's 3 hours. Good lord

[screambaby]

Still no Tuesday number for mario,?

[JohnnyGossamer]

  

56 minutes ago, Spidey Freak said:

 

Wasn't Interstellar considered an underwhelming performance compared to Inception though, which helped Nolan arm twist WB into giving back his late July spot?

Interstellar made 188M DOM and 648M WW. If Oppenheimer does numbers like Interstellar we'll all be over the moon. That's in 2014 too. Those numbers seem pretty good to me...

[narniadis]

13 minutes ago, screambaby said:

Still no Tuesday number for mario,?

Another hour or two before official estimates. Its not even 7am on the coast yet. 

Early access from our trackers is exception during the week. 

[Borobudur]

1 hour ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

Hard to imagine it does... What's the last Nolan movie to not breakout? Prestige? I'm not counting Tenet and even that did well enough all things considered with the pandemic WW at the box office.

Actually Tenet's $306m overseas gross is a very good performance considering many high profile tentpole such as AM3, Black Adam and JW4 struggle to hit that mark.  

[JohnnyGossamer]

26 minutes ago, narniadis said:

Another hour or two before official estimates. Its not even 7am on the coast yet. 

Early access from our trackers is exception during the week. 

I think maybe we were hoping to have an early number from Charlie or Empire (on their Twitter feed) or a seasoned tracker or someone/anyone else with some access. We're greedy here! Ha!

Edited April 12, 2023 by JohnnyGossamer

[ThatWaluigiDude]

I don't think Elementals will flop and honestly will be surprised if it did, but at the same time I am not expecting anything beyond a modest hit.

 

Indy is the one you all REALLY shouldn't underestimate imo. Is the exact type of blockbuster aiming older audiences that it is catching people's eyes lately.

[Mojoguy]

1 hour ago, Torontofan said:

This is grossing 500 million? This will be around 330-340 million by Sunday. 

We have to see how well it drops 2nd weekend.

 

To reach 1 Billion, Mario will probably need $500m DOM and $500m OS. 

 

It's doing well OS with the exception of China. Japan will be a big wild card.

Edited April 12, 2023 by Mojoguy

[Borobudur]

 

-	(5)	Come Out in Jesus Name	Fathom Events	$666,485	-26%		978	$681	$2,543,913	30
-	(-)	Shazam! Fury of the Gods	Warner Bros.	$175,000	-15%	-70%	2,203	$79	$56,945,471	26

 

Shazam 2 has a similar Sun-Mon drop like Mario, -15% should be the range for Mario then. 

[MrPink]

3 hours ago, Maggie said:

I hope Oppenheimer doesn't flop

 

Looking at how Air is doing and adding a large amount of PLF on top of that plus Nolan's name recognition..honestly I'd be quite surprised if it opened under 30m assuming the movie reviews fairly well. And the adult skewing factor and Nolan's usual legs will take that to at least 100m domestic.

 

I don't know if it's gonna be a significant success but I have it pegged for a 35-40m OW and doing some 120m+. I don't think it'll be a flop but the question is if it  can breakout and be an unqualified success to me. Despite Tenet being more of a misstep with the audience, the read I'm getting is that people are still generally interested in what he's doing and open to seeing his movies and his pull in IMAX is always gonna help juice his grosses.

Edited April 12, 2023 by MrPink

[Borobudur]

3 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Looking at how Air is doing and adding a large amount of PLF on top of that plus Nolan's name recognition..honestly I'd be quite surprised if it opened under 30m assuming the movie reviews fairly well. And the adult skewing factor and Nolan's usual legs will take that to at least 100m domestic.

Also the first big screen presence for RDJ in more than 3 years should create some buzz. 

[TigerPaw]

1 hour ago, Borobudur said:

Actually Tenet's $306m overseas gross is a very good performance considering many high profile tentpole such as AM3, Black Adam and JW4 struggle to hit that mark.  

Same period where Mulan decided to be on D+ premiere access and get pirated worldwide.

 

What a waste..

[Skim Beeble]

Come Out in Jesus Name making $666K is the best thing that could've happened

[Maggie]

15 minutes ago, MrPink said:

 

Looking at how Air is doing and adding a large amount of PLF on top of that plus Nolan's name recognition..honestly I'd be quite surprised if it opened under 30m assuming the movie reviews fairly well. And the adult skewing factor and Nolan's usual legs will take that to at least 100m domestic.

 

I don't know if it's gonna be a significant success but I have it pegged for a 35-40m OW and doing some 120m+. I don't think it'll be a flop but the question is if it  can breakout and be an unqualified success to me. Despite Tenet being more of a misstep with the audience, the read I'm getting is that people are still generally interested in what he's doing and open to seeing his movies and his pull in IMAX is always gonna help juice his grosses.

Yeah, that's where i have it too. around 40M opening. Legs depend on quality. The Imitation Game made 90M. This is Nolan and the subject matter is more known and dare i say exciting for the viewer, i'm expecting around 150M domestic

[thajdikt]

Does Oppenheimer get all the PLF´s or does Barbie get some aswell?

[JohnnyGossamer]

7 minutes ago, thajdikt said:

Does Oppenheimer get all the PLF´s or does Barbie get some aswell?

My assumption is Oppenheimer will get all IMAX at minimum. I'd hope it gets all the Dolby an XD too. Hope Barbie gets none. No need for it in those PLFs with a Nolan movie made for PLFs releasing that same weekend.