April 14th-16th 2023 Weekend Thread | $900K previews for Renfield

[Krissykins]

1 hour ago, YM! said:

Though I think it’s too late for Elemental to move, and ultimately shouldn’t back down, one can argue they’ve kind of lose it to competition anyways. Studios are now refusing to back down to their spots. We got Flash opening same day as Elemental, both Trolls 3 and KFP4 refusing to move a week from a spot a Disney animation is, Wicked the same day as a untitled Disney Animation and The Fall Guy opening the same day as Elio.

They just bumped Elemental back 3 weeks here in the UK the other day. 

[Firepower]

1 hour ago, Mulder said:

Looking at it, seems like John Wick 4'll finish at right about where 3 finished, maybe a bit behind. Guess it shows that there is indeed a ceiling for Wick.

It should do 180+ mln, it's not doing less than JW3 unless it completely collapses from this point.

[Fanboy]

This is a rather old comparison but following Ice Age 2's post-Easter Saturday jump (+75%) and Sunday decline (-34%) gets Mario to about 88M which I think is probably best case scenario considering Ice Age jumped 130% from Thursday to Friday.

Worst case off 22.5M is it jumps a little under 50% tomorrow and falls 40% on Sunday for 75M.

I think it will land right in the middle of those two numbers and end up somewhere in the low 80s, edging out Incredibles 2 for highest non-holiday 2nd weekend for an animated movie. 

Of course if the Friday number is notably higher than 22.5M it could do more than that. 

[superduperm]

2 minutes ago, Fanboy said:

This is a rather old comparison but following Ice Age 2's post-Easter Saturday jump (+75%) and Sunday decline (-34%) gets Mario to about 88M which I think is probably best case scenario considering Ice Age jumped 130% from Thursday to Friday.

Worst case off 22.5M is it jumps a little under 50% tomorrow and falls 40% on Sunday for 75M.

I think it will land right in the middle of those two numbers and end up somewhere in the low 80s, edging out Incredibles 2 for highest non-holiday 2nd weekend for an animated movie. 

Of course if the Friday number is notably higher than 22.5M it could do more than that. 

I’ll eat a shoe if this jumps under 50% today. That’s not happening. It’s April, not June.

[MightyDargon]

What exactly is Elemental opening against that can theoretically throttle it so badly?

[Issac Newton]

 

 

 

[YM!]

23 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

What exactly is Elemental opening against that can theoretically throttle it so badly?

The Flash. You don’t open two kids movies together so close.

 

That and it opens in close proximity to TLM, Across and Transformers (which Beasts should also underperform) which all attract kids and are consecutive weeks. Indy 2 weeks later also means Disney will likely focus on that over it.

[DisposedData]

I think Mario can match BatB second Saturday. 

[MightyDargon]

7 minutes ago, YM! said:

The Flash. You don’t open two kids movies together so close.

 

That and it opens in close proximity to TLM, Across and Transformers (which Beasts should also underperform) which all attract kids and are consecutive weeks. Indy 2 weeks later also means Disney will likely focus on that over it.

The Flash isn't really a "kids movie". I'd be more worried that Spiderverse would eat up all/most kids admissions this summer more than Flash.

[Alexander]

Elemental just looks so 'meh'. 28-33M OW at best.

[Issac Newton]

-	(5)	Dungeons & Dragons: Honor…	Paramount Pi…	$1,940,000	+102%	-60%	3,324	$584	$68,660,000	15
-	(6)	Scream VI	Paramount Pi…	$430,000	+113%	-66%	1,288	$334	$105,768,000	36

[KP1025]

2 minutes ago, YM! said:

The Flash. You don’t open two kids movies together so close.

 

That and it opens in close proximity to TLM, Across and Transformers (which Beasts should also underperform) which all attract kids and are consecutive weeks. Indy 2 weeks later also means Disney will likely focus on that over it.

 

I don't think opening against the Flash is necessarily a problem by itself. Pixar has shown it can go toe to toe against big films and still thrive. Inside Out, which Elemental shares some similarities with, opened in #2 but still debuted very strongly against Jurassic World's ~$107 million second weekend (which is probably on par or even higher than what the Flash would gross its opening weekend). But combined with everything this summer, I do agree Elemental could have an issue finding the right audience.

[Issac Newton]

-	(-)	Avatar: The Way of Water	20th Century…	$40,000	+26%	-73%	160	$250	$682,862,582	120
-	(-)	Ant-Man and the Wasp: Qua…	Walt Disney	$11,000	-55%	-90%	75	$147	$212,880,215	57

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, MightyDargon said:

The Flash isn't really a "kids movie". I'd be more worried that Spiderverse would eat up all/most kids admissions this summer more than Flash.

Any PG-13 tentpole especially CBMs is a kids movie in some form due to a lot of crossover. Especially when they got to get back into full swing as the Plus took away a lot eyeballs.

 

Thinking Elemental does 30-45M OW but with good WOM and reviews legs it to 150M DOM. If it doesn’t get lost in the shuffle with Mermaid and Indy in terms of marketing, maybe 50/200.

Edited April 15, 2023 by YM!

[titanic2187]

AIR is following closely like House of Gucci as a 5-days 20m+ OW opener. The movie is still on-track to do $50m-55m but I am just sad this feel-good drama isn't holding much better, knowing the similar movie that came before Covid were holding a lot more better such as GB's 2nd weekend and the hidden figure. This prove that the inertia from public to see a drama in cinema is still strong. 

[DisposedData]

Ant Man can't catch a break.  It's run is truly over.

Edited April 15, 2023 by DisposedData

[kayumanggi]

 

[cooldude97]

4 minutes ago, kayumanggi said:

 

It's joever

[CJohn]

Fuck this weekend.

[Borobudur]

The holdovers are getting destroyed! There are just too many of wide releases out there and they can't ask Mario to make way so all holdovers suffer.